We’re all gonna die! Seismologists model the San Andreas fault, and find it about to blow!
Chicken Little rules!
According to computer simulations based on known but very limited earthquake data during the past 1,000 years, scientists now claim that the San Andreas fault in California is now “critically stressed,” suggesting a big quake is coming soon.
You can read their paper here. The news article at the first link above is typical of most mainstream reports, very much focused on expressing certain doom based on the certainty of this research:
The volatile seismic zone along the roughly 750-mile (1,200-km) San Andreas Fault and the smaller San Jacinto Fault are now “critically stressed” – reaching a 1,000-year high level of pressure – increasing the likelihood of a big earthquake hitting the US West Coast.
Using physics-based modeling and 1,000 years of earthquake data, Earth scientists at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa demonstrated how the build-up of stress throughout these two fault systems and at the juncture of the Cajon Pass is at an all-time high.
The “1,000 years of earthquake data” however is extremely limited, with only the last 100 years reasonably covered. That sparse data is then used to create computer models and simulations, from which these Chicken Little conclusions are drawn.
In other words, garbage in, garbage out.
Without doubt a large quake along the San Andreas fault is eventually going to happen. In fact, scientists have been making this same exact prediction now for almost a half century. That no such quake has happened doesn’t make the prediction false, but the endless predictions of doom by the seismology community for a half century has made them sound increasingly like the little boy who cried wolf. They simply don’t have sufficient knowledge to predict when the quake will happen, but their endless cries of doom has blunted the impact of their words.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty and limitations of their knowledge are too often ignored by the press. To this press: “They are SCIENTISTS, so they KNOW!”
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Have you ever known of someone breaking up with their partner just before a holiday so they didn’t have to buy them a gift?
The San Andreas fault is just like that holiday. Can we break up with California before this happens?
It seems the death-toll risk along the San Andreas decreases daily.
Scientists aren’t supposed to ‘know’ they are supposed to ‘understand’. That understanding is based on current information, observations, and a grain of skepticism. That last ingredient seems to be missing these days.
I have to step in here and defend my fellow seismologists. (Yes, long ago, in a previous life, I was a geophysicist studying earthquakes.)
Bob, you are too quick to attack these scientists. It seems you are relying on your pre-conceived notions, rather than reading the paper carefully.
Bob says
Actually the earthquake data is quite extensive, and distributed fairly evenly throughout the 1,000 year period. See the dates listed in Figure 2. Yes, it’s true, we can analyze data from earthquakes that occurred long ago. Pretty cool science that makes it possible.
Bob goes on to say
The scientists in this paper made no such prediction. Bob, you rightly lambast other science writers for clickbait journalism, but you’ve fallen into the same trap. This paper is an interesting analysis, useful for hazard assessment and risk analysis.
From the paper:
Oh no, the sky is falling! But read their very next sentences:
We all know the sky will fall eventually. Let’s use our best judgement and prepare for what might happen.
Will the coastal fringe of Calif. break off and slip beneath the waves taking it’s residents with it?
We can only hope.
The Peninsula San Andreas Fault has moved very little since the great earthquake, but farther south at Hollister, it has slipped some 20 – 40 inches. So a lot of pressure has built up, which someday will be released in another great quake.