Long March 5B core stage crash window narrows to 12 hours
The Aerospace Corporation has now narrowed its predicted window for the uncontrolled re-entry of the core stage of China’s Long March 5B, launched on July 24th, to twelve hours, centered over southeast China in the early morning hours of July 31st.
The window still covers almost all inhabitable places on Earth. It will also narrow considerably in the next 24 hours, though not enough to make a reliable precise prediction until just prior to re-entry.
Just remember: China will repeat this farce in October, when it launches the next module to its Tiangong space station.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
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The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The Aerospace Corporation has now narrowed its predicted window for the uncontrolled re-entry of the core stage of China’s Long March 5B, launched on July 24th, to twelve hours, centered over southeast China in the early morning hours of July 31st.
The window still covers almost all inhabitable places on Earth. It will also narrow considerably in the next 24 hours, though not enough to make a reliable precise prediction until just prior to re-entry.
Just remember: China will repeat this farce in October, when it launches the next module to its Tiangong space station.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Klimate Kooks – We can trust China to live up to its commitments to reduce fossil fuel usage. They signed a Treaty!
The map now showing at Aerospace Corp is no longer centered over southeast China, but earlier in the same orbit, over the southwest Indian Ocean.
Ray Van Dune: As we get closer, that map will change almost hourly.
Here I go again.
Hit my house baby. My insurance will pay off and I bet the Chinese government will chuck in a nice sorry bonus.
If the Chinese do not pay up I will just take them to court and let our state department pay me and they can collect from the Chinese.
pzatchok. China ;s reply to you, quotes Rhett Butler’s reply to Scarlet O’Hara
Yes, Bob, I fully understand the predicted entry point will change, but I find following the pattern of that change fascinating! It is now centered over the Indian Ocean more or less due south of the Indian subcontinent.
I am watching for any indication of a migration that might indicate a control input from a de-orbit burn. A slight retrograde burn would move it into the vast southern Atlantic / Indian oceans, but it may be well positioned if it stays where it is.
Ray Van Dune: I am almost 100% positive that China cannot do any kind of controlled re-entry. 1. If they had that ability, wouldn’t they announce it loudly, to prevent the bad publicity they are now getting? 2. Any controlled re-entry would bring the stage down within one orbit.
Note that the centerpoint you see now over the Indian Ocean is merely that, the centerpoint. Aerospace makes if very clear that the re-entry could happen anywhere along the line. The centerpoint is not a favored spot.
Bob, in a previous comment on another post, I explained why I thought the Chinese would only claim success AFTER a controlled de-orbit, and in the case of a failure, likely say nothing. I do not believe they possess the required self-assurance to do as you say and announce the attempt in advance.
With respect to the mid-point, it is statistically significant, and the more effective the technology used (greater thrust) I would expect the range of error +- that point would be lessened. What the ultimate precision could be I cannot imagine, but obviously manned capsules routinely achieve virtually pinpoint accuracy in descending from orbit, albeit with the use of systems that might not be justified for a defunct object.
I have been objective and polite in making my views known, but I think that I will not comment further. We shall see what happens.
Ray Van Dune: Forgive me if my responses appeared rude. They were not meant that way.
Bob, thanks for your considerate words – I only hope I was not overly sensitive.
Said the bully to the meek: _whadya yoo gonna do abou’ dit?_
Nothing you can do about it. They answer only to themselves. When the rest of you are in the way, so what?
If the debris hits a Chinese space facility, I’m going to church next Sunday.
If the debris hits the Capitol during a J6 hearing, look for charges of Trump-Chinese collusion in 3 … 2 … 1 …
“Controlled Precision Re-Entry”
https://youtu.be/S-V6MZlyCqE
2:22
Wayne, your link reminded me of the fact that, had the Cold War gone hot, the plains states and western Canada would have been pockmarked with the craters left by expended Minuteman (and a few Titan) stages.
Of course, that would have been the least of our worries.