SpaceX launches 23 Starlink satellites
SpaceX last night successfully launched 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.
The first stage successfully completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
80 SpaceX
50 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China 92 to 50 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 92 to 79. SpaceX by itself once again leads the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 80 to 79.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
SpaceX last night successfully launched 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.
The first stage successfully completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
80 SpaceX
50 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China 92 to 50 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 92 to 79. SpaceX by itself once again leads the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 80 to 79.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Can they launch 20 in 52 days?
Good question Col. But, as you note, the answer will not be long in coming. I’m inclined to think that answer will turn out to be ‘yes.’ Just equaling the cadence of Oct. in Nov. and Dec. would get SpaceX to 97 Falcons for the year. I’m inclined to think SpaceX will prove capable of squeezing in an additional three missions to finish the year at 100.
Perhaps we’ll even get a preview of how SpaceX intends to go from ca. 100 to ca. 144 Falcon launches next year. Continuing to shorten turnarounds at all pads currently in-service – especially at SLC-4E at Vandy – will certainly be part of the solution. Completing the “Falconization” of pad SLC-6 at Vandy and getting it into service will be an additional part of the solution.
For the rest, I think SpaceX will soon begin to launch somewhat smaller batches of Starlinks on RTLS missions. Such missions can be launched more frequently than those needing drone ship booster recovery and would be appreciably cheaper to do as well. To increase the savings per flight still more, these missions will also probably employ the “shorty” Mvac nozzle that uses far less exotic alloy to fabricate that does the standard nozzle.
Such missions won’t be able to carry as many Starlinks per launch, but that will be more than made up by the greater number of such launches that can be done over any given interval and by their considerably lower variable expense per launch. The cost of a Starlink delivered to orbit should stay the same – or perhaps even be better than – what is achieved now with standard Mvac nozzles and drone ship booster recoveries. I would expect the majority of such missions in 2024 to depart from SLC-40 at Canaveral, but we might also see some launched from SLC-4E and SLC-6 at Vandy as 2024 wears on and the minimum turnaround at SLC-4E continues to shorten.
Dick,
I had wondered how many V2 Minis they can launch and RTLS. It has become clear that the ASDS is the limiting factor for SLC-40. LC-39A is getting killed by the Falcon Heavy downtime. Of the 56 launches out of Florida, 11 from LC-39A while SLC-40 has done 45 in the same time. If they are serious about 144 launches in a year, they may want to invest in a second TEL dedicated to Falcon Heavy.
And changing the TEL head for Dragon vs fairing takes time.
But they have also changed CRS and possibly Crew Dragon missions to RTLS which is good as well.
They may not hit 100 exactly, but mid 90’s seems pretty likely and that is close enough for government work!
Dick Eagleson,
Although cost is an important factor, SpaceX has a deadline for getting half its second generation constellation orbital. If they do not meet the FCC’s deadline, then that hostile agency has an excuse to cancel the license for that constellation. This would be far more costly than a few extra drone ship launches. In addition, SpaceX could choose to expend some boosters in order to meet the deadline.
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/october-17-2023-quick-space-links/
Has anyone else noticed that the deadline is a couple of weeks after the 2024 presidential election, so that at election time no one could know whether the FCC would maliciously cancel the license for being a few satellites short?
geoffc,
SpaceX may do as you suggest, but I think the “Falconization” refit of Vandy’s pad SLC-6 will likely accommodate both F9 and FH ops, taking some of the FH load away from LC-39A at KSC.
Edward,
There seems to be something wrong with the pdf link as I can’t load the document. So I don’t know what that 3,750 number represents. If it refers only to Gen 2 Starlink deployments, SpaceX has already launched over 700 of those thus far this year and will launch about 200 more by year’s end.
In 2024, just using Falcon 9s, SpaceX should be able to up that number to 2,700 or more by late Nov. By using some early Starship missions to launch batches of the current V2 Mini sats, I think SpaceX can get to 3,750 or more by late Nov. 2024.
In any case, failure to make first-half numbers by the stipulated deadline is not grounds for license cancellation. The most the FCC can do in such a case is cut the total number of licensed sats to twice the number that actually get launched by the initial deadline with the remaining half of the new total needing to be launched by the second deadline.