Category: Points of Information

Very brief descriptions, with appropriate links, of current or recent news items.

More missions to Apophis when it flies past Earth in 2029?

11:45 am

Apophis' path past the Earth in 2029
A cartoon (not to scale) showing Apophis’s
path in 2029

There were two stories today that heralded the addition of one real and two potential new spacecraft to rendezvous with the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it flies past the Earth on April 13, 2029.

First, the European Space Agency (ESA) awarded a 1.5 million euro contract to the Spanish company Emxys to build a small cubesat that will fly on ESA’s Ramses mission to Apophis. This is the second cubesat now to fly attached to Ramses, with the first designed to use radar to study Apophis’ interior.

The second CubeSat, led by Emxys, will be deployed from the main spacecraft just a few kilometres from Apophis. It will study the asteroid’s shape and geological properties and will carry out an autonomous approach manoeuvre before attempting to land on the surface. If the landing is successful, it will also measure the asteroid’s seismic activity.

Second, American planetary scientists have been lobbying NASA to repurpose the two small Janus spacecraft for a mission to Apophis. These probes were originally built to go to an asteroid as a secondary payload when the Pysche asteroid mission was launched, but when Pysche was delayed they could no longer go that that asteroid on the new launch date. Since then both Janus spacecraft have been in storage, with no place to go.

The scientists say they could easily be repurposed to go to Apophis, but NASA will have to commit to spending the cost for launch, approximately $100 million. NASA officials were not hostile to this idea, but they were also non-committal. I suspect no decision can be made until the new administrator, Jared Isaacman, is confirmed by the Senate and takes office.

Time however is a factor. The longer it takes to make a decision the fewer options there will be to get it to Apophis on time.

At the moment there is only one spacecraft in space and on its way to Apophis, and that is the repurposed Osiris-Rex mission, now called Osiris-Apex. Japan might also send a craft past Apophis as part of its mission to another asteroid.

Learning as much as we can about Apophis is critical, as there is a chance it will impact the Earth sometime in the next two hundred years.

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Space station startup Voyager Technologies about to go public

10:52 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The space station startup Voyager Technologies (formerly Voyager Space) has filed its paperwork for its expected initial public offering (IPO) of stock as it competes for a major contract from NASA to build its Starlab space station.

Voyager filed a preliminary prospectus for its planned initial public offering (IPO) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission May 16. The company previously confidentially filed plans for its IPO with the SEC. The draft prospectus does not yet disclose how many shares the company plans to sell or the amount the company expects to raise in the IPO. It does, though, offer financial details about Voyager.

The company reported $144.2 million in revenue in 2024 and a net loss of $65.6 million, versus $136.1 million in revenue and a net loss of $25.2 million in 2023. The company also reported revenue of $34.5 million in the first quarter of 2025, and a net loss of $27.9 million.

This story actually made me less confident about this company’s plans, with this quote the most revealing:

The company received a funded Space Act Agreement from NASA to support initial design work on the station, currently worth $217.5 million with $70.3 million yet to be paid. … The NASA award covers only initial work on Starlab, and the company will have to compete for a second phase of NASA’s Commercial Low Earth Orbit Development program that will offer additional funding for station development. Voyager revealed in the prospectus that it projects Starlab to cost $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion to develop.

So far it appears Voyager has built nothing. Instead it has used NASA’s preliminary money to do and redo its on-paper design of Starlab (compare the more recent design concept in the image on the right with this older image from 2022), which as a concept is intended to be launched whole on a single Starship launch. No metal has been cut. The company appears to be following the old big space company approach of investing nothing of its own in development.

This does not mean its station will be a failure, but I expect it will not launch as scheduled in 2029 if it wins that major NASA contract. The company will have to build it all in less than three years, something that I doubt it will be able to do.

My present rankings for the four proposed commercial stations:

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for early June, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA, but it has built nothing, and appears unwilling to cut any metal until it wins NASA’s full contract.
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Air Force issues draft approval of second SpaceX launchpad at Vandenberg

9:44 am

Air Force last week issued a draft environmental impact statement approving SpaceX’s plans to rebuild the old Space Launch Complex 6 (SLC-6, pronounced “slick-six”) at Vandenberg that was first built for the space shuttle (but never used) and later adapted for ULA’s Delta family of rockets, now retired.

The plan involves rebuilding SLC-6 to accommodate both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches, including the addition of two landing pads. With its already operational launchpad at Vandenberg, SLC-4E, the company hopes to increase its annual launch rate from 50 (approved by the FAA earlier this month) to as much as 100.

The estimated launch cadence between SpaceX’s existing West Coast pad at … SLC-4E and SLC-6 would be a 70-11 split for Falcon 9 rockets in 2026 with one Falcon Heavy at SLC-6 for a total of 82 launches. That would increase to a 70-25 Falcon 9 split in 2027 and 2028 with an estimated five Falcon Heavy launches in each of those years.

The draft assessment is now open to public comment through July 7, 2025, with a final version expected to be approved in the fall. It appears the Air Force wants it approved, as it needs this capacity for its own launch requirements. It also appears it no longer cares what the California Coastal Commission thinks about such things, as it has no authority and its members appear motivated not by environmental concerns but a simple hatred of Elon Musk.

An annual launch rate of 100 however exceeds what the FAA approved in May, doubling it. In order to move forward either the FAA will have to issue a new reassessment of its own, or some legislative or executive action will be needed to reduce this red tape. Since Vandenberg is a military base, the military in the end makes all the final decisions. The FAA simply rubber-stamps those decisions.

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China launches communications satellite

9:17 am

China today successfully placed a communications satellite into orbit, its Long March 7A rocket lifting off from this coastal Wenchang spaceport.

SpaceX was supposed to have launched a set of Starlink satellites last night as well, but scrubbed the launch about two and a half minutes before launch. It plans to try again tonight.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

59 SpaceX
29 China
6 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 59 to 47.

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May 19, 2025 Quick space links

8:25 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who apologies for their lateness. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

As I noted to him when he sent these links, I had read all these stories and considered them bottom of the barrel and not worth a full post. They do rate however as quick links.

  • Jared Isaacman posts two tweets (here and here) noting how budgets are limited and we must face the reality of NASA budget cuts.
    He specifically slams SLS and the issuance of two lunar lander contracts, to SpaceX and Blue Origin. Says we can’t afford it, while robbing NASA of money it could use for “dozens of scientific programs.”

    He must be confident he has enough confirmation votes in the Senate or he wouldn’t say these things now.

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New research suggests the two types of streaks on Mars are caused by dry events

9:35 am

A Martian slope streak caused by a dust devil?
A Martian slope streak caused by a dust devil? From
data taken in 2023. Click for original image.

Scientists using a computer machine learning algorithm to assembly and analyze global maps of all known slope streaks and recurring slope lineae (RSL) — the two different types of streaks found on Mars whose cause as yet remain unexplained — have concluded that these streaks are likely caused by dry processes, not wet brine seeping from underground.

Slope streaks can occur randomly throughout the year, can be bright or dark, can occur anywhere, and fade with time. Recurring slope lineae instead appear seasonally in the same locations and are always dark.

You can read the published paper here. It essentially provides further details on research that was first announced at a conference in March. From its conclusion:

[O]ur observations suggest that slope streak and RSL formation may be predominantly controlled by two independent, dry drivers, 1) the seasonal delivery of dust onto topographic inclines, and 2) the spontaneous activation of accumulated dust by energetic triggers – wind and impacts for slope streaks, as well as dust devils and rockfalls for RSL.

…Our results underline the fundamental differences between slope streaks and RSL, despite their visual resemblance. Streak and RSL populations occur on opposite hemispheres (north vs south), at different topographic elevations (mostly lowlands vs mostly highlands), in opposite thermal inertia terrain (low vs high), in different wind speed regimes (above-average vs below-average), in dissimilar diurnal thermal amplitude and heat flux terrain (above-average vs average), in different WEH, H2O, H, and water vapor column terrain (average vs below-average), and in terrain that provides suitable (theoretical) conditions for liquid water at different seasons (Ls ~90° vs Ls ~ 270°).

This data suggests both types of streaks form in connection with very fine Martian dust, but the researchers also admit that the actual method in which these avalanche-type streaks form remains unclear. In both cases the streaks cause no change in the topography (sometimes even traveling uphill for short distances), produce no debris piles at their base, as avalanches typically do, and do not appear to have an obvious cause or source at the top of the streak.

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Ispace borrows $35 million

9:01 am

Ispace landing map
Resilience’s landing zone in Mare Frigoris

The Japanese lunar lander startup Ispace announced last week that it has obtained a new bank loan totaling $35 million from the Japanese bank Mizuho to help pay its ongoing expenses as its Resilience lunar lander attempts the company’s second try at soft landing on the Moon.

The loan is intended to secure working capital for development of mission and other related expenses. Through this financing, ispace intends to strengthen the company’s liquidity position and stabilize its financial foundation, thereby enabling agile management decisions.

In other words, the company had started to run short of cash, and needed this loan to keep operating. It had previously gotten a government loan of almost $6 million, but that did not have to be paid back for ten years. Back in 2018 it raised $90 million in investment capital, followed by an additional $53 million in 2024.

This loan suggests that Ispace might be in serious financial trouble if Resilience fails to soft land on June 5, 2025, as presently planned. The company already has two future lander contracts, one with NASA and one with Japan’s space agency JAXA, but a second failure now might cause those agencies to have second thoughts.

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Chinese pseudo-company completes another launch from sea platform

8:42 am

The Chinese pseudo-company Galactic Energy today successfully placed four communications satellites into orbit, its solid-fueled Ceres-1 rocket lifting off from a sea platform off the eastern coast of China.

To prove how pseudo this company is, China’s state run press did not even mention its existence in the report at the link. The solid fuel of the rocket tells us that it was derived from missile technology, and there isn’t a chance in hell that a private independent company in China could do so without the strict supervision and control from that country’s government.

Nonetheless, this was its 19th successful launch, and its fifth from a sea platform. The rocket has only failed once since since its first launch in 2020.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

59 SpaceX
28 China
6 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 59 to 46.

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Third stage of India’s PSLV rocket fails during launch

9:36 pm

India’s PSLV rocket today (May 18 in India) experienced a launch failure in attempting to place an Earth observation satellite into orbit, with the failure occurring during the engine firing of the rocket’s third stage.

The link is cued to just before the tracking screen began showing the third stage drop from its planned trajectory. The suddenness of the loss of data as well as the drop in the trajectory suggests the engine exploded during firing, but that is pure speculation. Regardless, the launch, only the second India has attempted in 2025, was a failure.

Moreover, the first launch this year was a failure also, though the GSLV rocket in that launch performed as expected and deployed the satellite in its planned transfer orbit. At that point however the Indian-built satellite’s thrusters failed to operate, stranding the satellite in the wrong orbit , which soon decayed. UPDATE: According to a more recent report, it has remained in orbit but provides little service.

Thus 2025, which ISRO had predicted to be India’s most active year ever, is so far not turning out so well. ISRO hopes to begin launching its first unmanned test flights of its Gaganyaan capsule later this year, using its Heavy Lift Vehicle Mark 3 rocket (HLV-M3), an upgraded version of its GSLV rocket. One wonders if these issues will impact that schedule.

These failures by the space agency could however help the Modi government shift the balance of power away from ISRO and to its emerging private rocket sector. If the agency can’t get it done, maybe the private sector should be given the chance to do it. For example, the government has been pushing to have the ownership and management of the PSLV rocket transferred from ISRO to a private rocket company since in 2016. In the nine year since, there however has been little sign of this shift happening.

Part of the problem has been that none of India’s private rocket startups are really ready to take over these operations. The transfer is further made less likely by the strong resistance to change within ISRO’s bureaucracy. These failures provide political ammunition to push back against that resistance.

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Two launches last night, by China and Rocket Lab

10:23 am

The high pace of rocket launches this year continued last night, but in a rare exception this time it had nothing to do with SpaceX.

First, the Chinese pseudo-company Landspace successfully placed six radar satellites into orbit, its upgraded version of its Zhuque-2 rocket lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in China’s northwest.

No word on where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China. Unlike its larger Zhuque-3 rocket, which has not yet flown but is being designed as a copy of a Falcon 9 with its first stage able to return to Earth vertically, the Zhuque-2 has no such ability.

Next, Rocket Lab successfully placed a commercial radar satellite into orbit, its Electron rocket lifting off from one of the company’s two launchpads in New Zealand. This launch was the third by Rocket Lab for the satellite company iQPS, and is the second in an eight-satellite launch contract with the company.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

59 SpaceX
27 China
6 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 59 to 45.

5 comments

What satellite did the Varda capsule fly past during its return last week?

10:01 am

Other satellite passing under Varda's capsule
Click for video cued to this point.

Regular reader Rex Ridenoure emailed me today to note that there appears to be another satellite relatively nearby and visible in the video posted in yesterday’s quick links, taken from inside Varda’s capsule during its return to Earth.

The image to the right is a screen capture taken at 7:56 of the video. At that point the object is visible from 7:50 to 8:01 to the west and below. You can clearly see it moving from left to right (east to west). The two solar panels can also be discerned on either side of the satellite’s main body.

It later reappears for only two seconds in the lower right of the view window at 9:18, then is visible again at 10:30 to 10:33, now beginning to pass below but considerably to the north (?).

If anyone has the resources to identify this satellite, as well as its exact distance during this close approach, please comment below. It raises an interesting question on whether its existence was considered when the re-entry time was decided.

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