SpaceX and China complete launches

Both SpaceX and China today successfully completed launches.

First, SpaceX launched 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage flew its 19th mission, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Pacific, and tying the record for the most flights for a Falcon 9 booster.

Then, China launched a classified military satellite using its biggest rocket, the Long March 5, lifting off from its coastal spaceport in Wenchang. It remains unclear if China now has the ability to restart the engines on that rocket’s core stage, which reaches orbit, is large enough to survive re-entry, and has previously crashed uncontrolled, with one return barely missing the New York metropolitan area. If not, then this core stage carries a threat, as will the four or so other launches of the Long March 5 that China plans later this year.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

17 SpaceX
9 China
2 Iran
2 India
2 Rocket Lab
2 Japan
2 Russia

American private enterprise presently leads the entire world combined 20 to 17 in successful launches, while SpaceX by itself is tied 17-17 with the rest of the world (excluding other American companies).

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How SpaceX got Indonesia’s business

Link here. The article describes not only how Elon Musk and SpaceX persuaded the Indonesian government to buy Falcon 9 launches and introduce Starlink into its country, it describes how a Chinese launch failure contributed as well.

When a Chinese rocket malfunctioned shortly after launch in April 2020, destroying Indonesia’s $220 million Nusantara-2 satellite, it was a blow to the archipelago’s efforts to strengthen its communication networks. But it presented an opportunity for one man. Elon Musk – the owner of SpaceX, the world’s most successful rocket launcher – seized on the failure to prevail over state-owned China Great Wall Industry Corp (CGWIC) as Jakarta’s company of choice for putting satellites into space.

The most fascinated aspect of the article for me however was its effort to create a sense that the U.S. government dislikes SpaceX’s independence.

But the U.S. government and military are concerned about their reliance on SpaceX, especially given Musk’s muscular business style, according to one current and one former U.S. official working on space policy. While legacy U.S. defence contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin typically consult the State Department before making foreign deals, Musk and SpaceX dealt directly with Jakarta, the two officials said.

…Nicholas Eftimiades, a former U.S. intelligence officer and expert on Chinese espionage operations at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, said SpaceX’s CEO had ruffled some feathers in the U.S. capital: “Elon Musk does things his way and some officials don’t like that”.

The only Pentagon official quoted however had nothing negative to say about SpaceX.

It is likely there are officials in the Pentagon who want SpaceX to crash and fail, especially considering the full court press by many agencies against SpaceX since Biden became president. It is also likely that Reuters, which published this article, wants that full court press to succeed, and is eager to spin any SpaceX success badly, if it can. In general today mainstream press sources like Reuters operate as arms of the Democratic Party. If Biden wants SpaceX killed, so will Reuters.

No matter. The article can’t help describing why SpaceX is successful. It competes aggressively, and wins customers because it produces products that work, reliably.

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China targets May 2024 for launch of its Chang’e-6 lunar sample return mission

The Moon's far side
The Moon’s far side. Click for interactive map.

China is now working to a May 2024 launch of its Chang’e-6 lunar sample return mission to bring back about four pounds of material from the far side of the Moon.

The map to the right, created from a global mosaic of Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) imagery, shows the planned location of Chang’e-6’s landing site, in Apollo Basin. The landing site of China’s previous mission to the Moon’s far side, Chang’e-4 and its rover Yutu, is also shown. Both are still operating there, since landing five years ago on January 2, 2019.

Chang’e-6’s mission will be similar to China’s previous lunar sample mission, Chang’e-5, which included a lander, ascender, orbiter, and returner. It launched in November 23, 2020, landed a week later, and within two days grabbed its samples and its ascender lifted off. The samples were back on Earth by December 16, 2020.

There are indications however that Chang’e-6 might spend more time on the surface before its ascender lifts off with samples.

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China completes two launches yesterday

China successfully completed two launches yesterday from two different spaceports using two different rockets.

First a Long March 2C rocket launched 11 satellites as part of a civilian-based communications constellation, lifting off from it Xichang spaceport in southwest China. No word on where the rocket’s lower stages crashed, all of which use very toxic hypergolic fuels.

Next a Smart Dragon-3 rocket produced by the pseudo-company Landspace placed nine satellties into orbit, lifting off from a barge just off the coast of China. No information at all was released about the nine satellites. Furthermore, China’s state-run press made no mention of Landspace in its report, indicating once again what it thinks of these so-called private companies.

The 2024 launch race:

10 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
1 India
1 ULA
1 Japan
1 Rocket Lab

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Tank explosion in Shanghai injured three

The supposed test-to-tank failure of a rocket tank being tested by the Chinese pseudo-company Landspace on January 29, 2024 apparently injured three workers, though officials also claimed everything worked as planned.

Three workers were injured and nearby residents reported that “a huge boom” shook their windows during testing of a LandSpace rocket fuel tank in Shanghai on Monday evening. The Chinese start-up – which last year beat its rivals, including US-based SpaceX, to launch Zhuque-2, the world’s first methane-fuelled rocket, into orbit – said there were no abnormalities during the test.

A LandSpace representative told local media on Tuesday that the test “left some glass damaged and three production personnel with minor scratches”. The company and the district government said no explosion occurred.

This explosion was reported on X by nearby residents earlier this week (see the quick links here and here), with no confirmation from the pseudo-company. Even now it is being very coy about what it is telling us. An anonymous source at the link says the test filled the tank with nitrogen, and was intended “to establish the tank’s limits.”

No one however should have gotten injured during such a test, if everything took place as planned.

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China’s Chang’e-7 lunar mission will target the rim of Shackleton Crater

The Moon's south pole, with landers

China’s Chang’e-7 lunar mission, which will include an orbiter, lander, rover, and “mini-flying” probe, will land in 2026 on the rim of Shackleton Crater, one of the same candidate landing zones for NASA’s manned Artemis program.

The map to the right shows the lander’s approximate landing site, on the illuminated rim of thirteen-mile-wide Shackleton Crater at the Moon’s south pole. The candidate landing zone for NASA is also on this rim, but the location might not be precisely the same. From the abstract of the published paper [pdf] outlining the project’s science goals:

The lander will land on Shackleton crater’s illuminated rim near the lunar south pole, along with the rover and mini-flying probe. The relay satellite (named Queqiao-2) will be launched in February 2024 as an independent mission to support relay communication for ongoing scientific exploration of Chang’E-4 (CE-4), the upcoming Chang’E-6 (CE-6) in 2024, and subsequent lunar missions.

Though the abstract states the target is Shackleton’s rim, the paper is less specific, showing a map with a much wider “candidate landing region”. It is unclear if China as yet has the ability to land with the pinpoint accuracy necessary to hit the rim as stated. The paper is also devoid of any technical details about the lander, rover, or its mini-flyer. It lists the science instruments and their science goals, but describes nothing more specific. For example, will the flyer bounce or use small rockets to lift off? Or will it simply be released prior to landing with no capability of taking off again?

The big story here is the race to get to Shackleton first. NASA presently hopes its first Artemis manned mission to land on the Moon, Artemis-3, will arrive in September 2026, with its stated goal landing at or near the south pole. That schedule is certainly tentative, based on NASA’s recent track record. China is now targeting that same year, but its recent track record for its lunar program has been far more reliable.

The Outer Space Treaty forbids both countries from claiming any territory, but possession is always nine-tenths of reality. Expect China to touch down first, and hold what it touches.

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Another Chinese pseudo-company vertically lands a prototype 1st stage

According to China’s state-run press, the Chinese pseudo-company Expace yesterday successfully completed a short hop, with a methane-fueled prototype first stage of its next generation Kuaizhou rocket taking off and landing vertically.

The flight time lasted 22 seconds, and the rocket hovered in the air for nine seconds, with a height accuracy of 0.15 meter. The landing posture of the test rocket was stable, the landing position accurate and the rocket body in good condition, signifying the success of the experiment, according to the company.

Several things. First, this “company” is directly affliated with one of China’s government space agency. Its presently operating Kuaizhou rocket uses solid-fueled stages, adapted directly from missile technology that could only be obtained with full permission of that government. Second, there appears to be a plethora of these Chinese rocket “startups” now flying and testing methane-fueled engines. Want to bet the Chinese government told them all to share design information?

Third, there is also a plethora of Chinese pseudo-companies testing vertical take-off and landing for their first stages. Want to bet the Chinese government also told them to share design information?

Without question China’s space industry is moving fast, and will definitely be a competitive threat in the coming years — assuming outside events, such as war or economic collapse, don’t overwhelm things. However, it is a big mistake to see its industry as made up of independent, privately owned, and competing companies. They raise investment capital, compete for contracts from the government and other Chinese commercial entities, but in the end, everything they do is coordinated from above, by the Chinese communists.

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Chinese pseudo-company successfully completes rocket hop test

The Chinese pseudo-company Landspace successfully completed a rocket hop flight of its Zhuque-3 prototype hopper yesterday, testing vertical take-off and landing in preparation of recovering and reusing the first stage of its rockets.

The hop itself went to 350 meters and performed a small translation maneuver to the landing pad. The hope is called “ZQ-3 VTVL-1” which refers to “Vertical Takeoff – Vertical Landing”. It uses a single TQ-12 methane engine, which is also used on the current ZQ-2 rocket. The engine can throttle between 50-110% of the normal 80 tons of thrust, giving it a throttle range between 40 and 88 tons. The performed flight went on for roughly 60 seconds. The weight of the hopper is 50.3 tons.

Landpace confirmed the landing precision with 2.4 meters, with a landing speed of 0.75 meters per second, at a pitch angle of roughly 0.14 degrees, and a roll angle of 4.4 degrees. The hopper survived the hop and is already being inspected after the flight.

Video of the hop can be viewed at the link. The hopper is almost identical in concept to SpaceX’s Grasshopper test vehicle used by that company, flying with one engine of the same type used in its operational rocket.

If their test program continues as planned, Landspace hopes to begin flying reuseable stages in 2025, with that first stage capable of flying 20 times.

Of all the pseudo-companies in China, Landspace appears to be the most successful. It not only has an operational orbital rocket, Zhuque-2, that has carried satellites into orbit twice (here and here), it is very close to achieving rocket reuseability competitive with SpaceX.

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China successfully launched twice today

China completed two different launches from two different launch locations today, with one being the first launch of a new rocket.

First, China’s solid-fueled Kuaizhou-1A lifted off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China, placing what the state-run press described as a “satellite is mainly used for experiments such as space environment detection.” No other information was released. Nor was any information released about where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

Next, a Chinese pseudo-company, Orienspace, completed the first launch of its new Gravity-1 rocket, lifting off from a barge off the coast of Haiyang in the Yellow Sea carrying three satellites. The state-run press once again failed to mention this company’s name in its report, describing it instead as a “launch by China”, illustrating again the lack of independence these pseudo-companies have. They might design and build on their own, but they are controlled entirely by the communist government, and at any time can be taken over by it.

Though the rocket itself appears very similar in many ways to India’s largest version of its liquid-fueled GSLV rocket, very squat with four strap-on boosters, Gravity-1 is solid-fueled (thus derived from the missile technology controlled by China’s military). It is also the most powerful solid-fueled rocket now in operation, twice as powerful as Europe’s Vega-C.

The 2024 launch race:

4 China
3 SpaceX
1 India
1 ULA

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China launches X-ray space telescope

China early today successfully used its Long March 2C rocket to launch its new Einstein X-ray space telescope, built in partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA). The rocket lifted off from the Xichang spaceport in the southwest of China.

Astronomers will use the telescope to study the high energy released by during supernovae. It will also be used to study black holes and other high energy deep space phenomenon.

Meanwhile, the lower stages of the rocket, which use toxic hypergolic fuels, fell somewhere in China. No word if they landed anywhere near habitable areas.

The 2023 launch race:

3 SpaceX
2 China
1 India
1 ULA

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