Tag: competition

The next two Vulcan launches for the Pentagon slip to 2025

9:14 am

Both the Space Force and ULA have now admitted that the next two Vulcan launches, which both had hoped to launch before the end of this year, have now been delayed until 2025, and that Vulcan remains uncertified as yet by the military for its launches.

The United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan will not be able to conduct two planned national security missions on its launch manifest for this year after delays with certifying the heavy-lift rocket. The comments came hours after a Space Force official cast doubt that the missions could be completed before the end of 2024.

ULA launched its second certification flight in October, roughly a month behind schedule, following a first flight in January that was nearly four years behind schedule. The Space Force is still assessing data from the October launch in partnership with ULA.

The military had said if ULA completed two Vulcan successful launches it would approve Vulcan for these launches. Though the second launch got its payload to its correct orbit, during launch the nozzle on one of its strap-on solid-fueled boosters fell off. Though officials keep saying they expect certification anyway, that certification has not happened. It appears right now that the military won’t do so until the investigation into the problem is completed and a fix is installed.

At the moment the only rocket company that can launch large payloads for the Pentagon is SpaceX. Though that company has not gouged the military in bidding (though it it could) this is not a good situation. The military wants options and redundancy, not simply to save money, but to give it flexibility. It needs ULA and Blue Origin to finally deliver their rockets.

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If ordinary people don’t show up at those upcoming FAA Starship/Superheavy public meetings they WILL be screwed

1:24 pm

Starship splashing down vertically
Starship splashing down vertically in the
Gulf of Mexico on November 19, 2024

Yesterday radio host Robert Pratt sent me a news story from a Texas newspaper, the Texas Tribune, which attempted quite surprisingly to capture fairly the local response to the most recent Starship/Superheavy test launch out of Boca Chica on November 19, 2024.

The reporter, Bernice Garcia, clearly made it a point to talk to a lot of people, especially those who came out to see the launch. As a result, she showed that in general, no matter what people felt about Donald Trump or Elon Musk, the local population was almost entirely in favor of SpaceX’s efforts there. For example:

Sanchez was slightly concerned about [the rocket’s sonic booms] but believed the benefits of jobs created by SpaceX was worth the risk. “They know what they’re doing,” Sanchez said.

But his favorable opinion of Musk’s company did not extend to Trump. A naturalized citizen who gained amnesty under the Reagan administration, Sanchez didn’t view Trump’s immigration policies as logistically sound. “If you throw those people out, who’s going to work?” Sanchez said. “You don’t see a white man laboring out in the sun. On the other hand, Mexicans, foreigners, people from other countries –– that’s why they come here, to work.”

While the story found locals with a whole range of opinions about Trump, both positive and negative, it only quoted one person who was hostile to SpaceX, and that quote and person tells us a great deal about the bankrupt nature of that opposition:
» Read more

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ESA gives its big space rocket company, ArianeGroup, a big subsidy

10:29 am

On November 19, 2024 I noted that in awarding four new rocket startups development contracts worth a total of 44 million euros, the European Space Agency (ESA) had not given any of that grant money to its biggest and most established rocket company, ArianeGroup, which not only owns and builds the Ariane-6 rocket but also has a subsidiary called MaiaSpace that is developing its own smallsat partly reusable rocket, in direct competition with those four small startups.

The exclusion of ArianeGroup in that announcement suggested to me that ESA had decided ArianeGroup’s smalsat rocket subsidary could manage without any additional aid, since its owner is a well-financed big space contractor.

I was wrong. Today the ESA awarded ArianeGroup a much big pile of cash, totaling 230 million Euros, to further finance the development of a reusable demonstration rocket, dubbed Themis, that also uses ArianeGroup’s Prometheus rocket engine. The Themis hopper project has been under development since 2018 initially under the management of Arianespace, has seen many delays in that time, and is now three years behind schedule.

Because of these delays, ESA pulled it from Arianespace in 2022 and gave full control of the project to the builder, ArianeGroup. This new contract award appears to be cementing this new arrangement, and is in addition to previous awards for this project exceeding 224 million euros.

The award also apparently includes funds for ArianeGroup’s MaiaSpace smallsat rocket startup, though the exact amount has not been specified.

The bottom line is that ESA is still dumping lots of cash to its older big space companies. Despite its clear shift to promoting independent rocket startups instead of a single government-controlled commercial entity (Arianespace), it is still favoring the big space contractors like ArianeGroup it has used for decades under that old Soviet-style system.

It will be interesting to see how this unbalanced system plays out in the coming years. Europe might get a competitive rocket industry of many companies, but then it might not, considering its space agency is putting its thumb on the scale to favor the already-established players.

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Musk: Starship will likely attempt a chopstick landing on the eighth test launch

9:57 am

UPDATE: The original post below is incorrect. I misread Musk’s tweet, not realizing he was refering exclusively to Starship when he wrote “ship.” He and his company now routinely use “ship” to refer to Starship and “booster” for Superheavy.

The real story behind this tweet is that SpaceX is working to attempt a chopstick catch of both Superheavy and Starship on the eighth test flight, after the as-yet unscheduled seventh flight. This means the eighth flight of Starship will be a full orbital flight, will use its Raptor engines to do a de-orbit burn to bring it back to Boca Chica, and that the company expects to have two launchpad towers ready to make the two catches.

Won’t that be an exciting event?

Original incorrect post:
———————————–
According to a tweet by Elon Musk on November 19, 2024, SpaceX will not attempt a chopstick landing of Superheavy on the seventh test orbital launch of Starship/Superheavy.

We will do one more ocean landing of the ship. If that goes well, then SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower.

According to an update on the SpaceX website, the decision to abort the chopstick landing during this week’s sixth test flight was made because of issues at the launch tower:

Following a nominal ascent and stage separation, the booster successfully transitioned to its boostback burn to begin the return to launch site. During this phase, automated health checks of critical hardware on the launch and catch tower triggered an abort of the catch attempt. The booster then executed a pre-planned divert maneuver, performing a landing burn and soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.

At this moment SpaceX has not provided any additional information on what those issues at the tower were, and might never do so since this is proprietary information. Nonetheless, it could be that more work is necessary to make sure the tower is healthy after launch, which is why they won’t attempt a chopstick landing next time.

As for when that seventh test flight will occur, we as yet have no word. The timing is going to depend on many factors, including the need for upgrades, the final flight plan decision, any changes then required to SpaceX’s FAA launch license, and finally the impact the new Trump administration will have on that red tape.

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Space Perspective wants to launch its balloon from the Middle East

9:49 am

Space Perspective's Neptune Capsule
Space Perspective’s Neptune balloon capsule

The high altitude balloon company Space Perspective is presently in discussions with a number of Middle Eastern nations to find a location from which tourists can take tourist flights on its Neptune balloon capsule.

The Florida-based company is spending time in the Gulf to evaluate opportunities and expects to select a location in the first quarter of 2025, Michael Savage, its chief executive, told The National on Wednesday on the sidelines of the Skift Global Forum East in Dubai.

“We have interest from the UAE and entities from Abu Dhabi have come to visit mission control more than once. And we have interest from Qatar and from Saudi Arabia,” he said. “Our customer base likes to vacation in and visit this region, this has become a global hub for high-net worth vacationing … and because this is a luxury experience, it’s ideal for us to be as close as possible to that demographic.”

This the same approach that another American balloon company, World View, proposed in 2022. Since then however that company has not announced any updates of the tourist version of its high altitude balloons, which it has mostly been using to provide reconnaissance data for the Pentagon.

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A U.S. startup building a returnable capsule raised $44 million in investment capital

9:37 am

The new American company Inversion Space — which is developing an orbiting cargo capsule called Arc — has now raised $44 million in private investment capital.

The Los Angeles-based company announced Nov. 20 that it raised a Series A round led by Spark Capital and Adjacent, with participation from Lockheed Martin Ventures, Kindred Ventures and Y Combinator. The company has raised $54 million to date, with a $10 million seed round in 2021. It also won in September a Strategic Funding Increase (STRATFI) agreement with the Space Force’s SpaceWERX valued at $71 million, a combination of government and private funding to support work on reentry vehicles tailored for military customers.

Inversion will use the funds to further development of Arc, a reentry vehicle designed to provide what it called “precision delivery on-demand” from space to the Earth. The company is currently working on the design of Arc with a first flight planned for 2026.

The number of companies developing orbiting cargo capsules, either to provide supplies to the new space stations or to do manufacturing in orbit for return and sale on Earth, appears to be growing by leaps and bounds. First there was SpaceX’s Dragon, though the company has not yet flown any in-space manufacturing missions. Varda followed next, and has already flown and returned one capsule successfully. Sierra Nevada will follow next year with the first launch of its reusable Tenacity Dream Chaser mini-shuttle. Inversion will be the fourth.

In Europe there is The Exploration Company in France with its Nyx capsule, the German startup Atmos with its Phoenix capsule, and the Spanish startup PLD with its Lince capsule. There may be more.

All of these orbiting and returnable capsules have multiple profit opportunities, which explains why there has been a willingness of investors to provide them funds. They can either supply cargo to the four private stations presently under construction, or fly independent orbital missions where the capsule carries equipment to produce products of value that can only be manufactured in weightlessness.

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The space agencies of India and Australia agree to cooperate in recovering Gaganyaan

9:23 am

India’s space agency ISRO yesterday announced that it has signed an agreement with the Australian Space Agency (ASA) to work together in doing ocean recovery of India’s Gagayaan manned capsule.

The IA [Implementation Agreement] enables the Australian authorities to work with Indian authorities to ensure support for search and rescue of crew and recovery of crew module as part of contingency planning for ascent phase aborts near Australian waters.

Apparently ISRO anticipates the possible need for capsule ocean recovery near Australia should there be a launch abort shortly after liftoff.

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Russia and SpaceX complete launches

9:16 am

Both Russia and the American company SpaceX successfully completed launches this morning. First, Russia sent a new Progress freighter on its way to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan. The cargo ship is planned to dock with ISS in two days.

Next SpaceX put another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its 20th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

119 SpaceX
53 China
14 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 137 to 80, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 119 to 98.

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French rocket startup wins multi-launch contract

9:03 am

Capitalism in space: The French rocket startup Latitude yesterday announced that it has gotten a multi-launch contract from the German startup Atmos Space Cargo, which is developing its own returnable cargo capsule.

In a deal announced at Space Tech Expo Europe here Nov. 19, Atmos will buy a minimum of five launches a year of Latitude’s Zephyr rocket between 2028 and 2032. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Each launch will place a Phoenix spacecraft into very low Earth orbit, or VLEO. The spacecraft are designed to accommodate payloads for microgravity research in fields like pharmaceuticals and manufacturing, returning them to Earth.

Both companies have raised private investment capital, with Latitude raising $30 million and Atmos $1.4 million. Both are part of the sudden burst of new independent space companies that have emerged in Europe in only the last three years, even as many new American space startups have fallen by the wayside due to technical problems and government red tape.

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FAA approves revised launch rate for Boca Chica; schedules public meetings

10:42 am

The FAA today announced that it has issued a revised draft environmental assessment [pdf] of SpaceX’s operations at Boca Chica in which the agency approves the company’s request to increase its Starship/Superheavy launch rate from 5 to 25 launches per year.

This does not mean that SpaceX can now launch that many times in 2025. The draft still has to go through more red tape, including public meetings and a comment period, then reviewed again by the FAA. In this announcement the FAA rescheduled those public meetings, as follows:

  • Tuesday, January 7, 2025; 1:00 PM–3:00 PM & 5:30 PM–7:30 PM CDT at the Texas Southmost College, Jacob Brown Auditorium, 600 International Boulevard, Brownsville, TX 78520
  • Thursday, January 9, 2025; 1:00 PM–3:00 PM & 5:30 PM–7:30 PM CDT at the Port Isabel Event & Cultural Center, Queen Isabella Room, 309 E Railroad Avenue, Port Isabel, TX 78578
  • Virtually on Monday, January 13, 2025; 5:30 PM–7:30 PM CDT. Registration Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_6f5su5mtTne_vBr8MqJOLA
    Dial-in phone number: 888-788-0099 (Toll Free),
    Webinar ID: 879 9253 6128, Passcode: 900729

I strongly suggest that local businesses and citizens in the Brownsville area organize to show up en masse at these meetings to express their approval of SpaceX, because I can guarantee that the fringe anti-Musk activists groups SaveRGV, Sierra Club, the Friends of Wildlife Corridor, and the fake Indian Carrizo/Comecrudo Nation of Texas (which never existed in Texas) are organizing to be there to demand SpaceX be shut down.

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NASA to award SpaceX and Blue Origin contracts to deliver cargo to the Moon

9:14 am

Capitalism in space: NASA yesterday announced that is planning to award both SpaceX and Blue Origin contracts to use their manned lunar landers as cargo freighters to deliver supplies to its planned lunar base.

NASA expects to assign demonstration missions to current human landing system providers, SpaceX and Blue Origin, to mature designs of their large cargo landers following successful design certification reviews. The assignment of these missions builds on the 2023 request by NASA for the two companies to develop cargo versions of their crewed human landing systems, now in development for Artemis III, Artemis IV, and Artemis V.

…NASA plans for at least two delivery missions with large cargo. The agency intends for SpaceX’s Starship cargo lander to deliver a pressurized rover, currently in development by JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), to the lunar surface no earlier than fiscal year 2032 in support of Artemis VII and later missions. The agency expects Blue Origin to deliver a lunar surface habitat no earlier than fiscal year 2033.

The contracts however have not been issued. This is merely an announcement of NASA’s intent to do so, which suggests to me that NASA management has already recognized that the entire Artemis program is facing a major restructuring and wants to indicate it will support such a change. That does not mean these contracts won’t be issued — both rely on the privately owned rockets of both companies — but that NASA now realizes that its manned program — which now relies on SLS/Orion — will likely to be changed significantly, likely by the elimination of SLS/Orion and its replacement by private rockets and private manned spacecraft.

Because of this looming restructuring, NASA management probably intended this press announcement — which really announces little that is new — as a signal of its support for such a change, because the announcement focuses on these private companies rather than NASA’s government-built rocket.

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Flights into Brownsville sold out prior to SpaceX’s sixth test flight of Starship/Superheavy

8:57 am

If anyone thinks the anti-Musk activists groups that have been using lawfare to try to shut down SpaceX’s Boca Chica facility have any local support, this story should put a quash on that. According to the airport director for the Brownsville-South Padre Island Airport, all flights sold out leading up to the sixth test flight of Starship/Superheavy.

Airport director Angel Ramos told Channel 5 News he’s noticed traffic increases whenever SpaceX does a flight test. “People are excited,” Ramos said. “They’re wearing SpaceX hats and SpaceX shirts [when they come] in to the airport.”

Ramos said flights were sold out between Sunday and Tuesday, and 700 people have been arriving daily at the airport since Sunday. “There is no launch that happens that we don’t see lots of people coming in and out of the airport, and now that they continue to be more frequent and more successful, people are paying more interest and actually coming days before,” Ramos said.

The story was reported by the local ABC television affiliate, and reflects the very positive impact SpaceX is having on the local community that is recognized quite clearly by everyone who lives there. The Brownsville area had been economically depressed for decades. Now the economy is booming, all because of SpaceX.

The public wants SpaceX there. The nay-sayers represent practically no one. That many local news organizations not only don’t report these facts when they cover the lawfare of these activists but instead often frame their stories as if the opposition is general throughout the region is shameful and an indication of the bankrupt nature of these press outlets.

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