Inspector General: Mars Sample Return mission in big trouble

The present plan for Mars Sample Return

Though the audit published today [pdf] by NASA’s inspector general of the NASA/ESA Mars Sample Return mission partnership tries to couch its language positively, the conclusion one reaches by reading the report is that the project is a mess and will almost certainly not fly when scheduled in 2029, and might even get delayed so much that the Perseverance rover on Mars — an essential component of the mission plan — might no longer be operational at that time.

First the budget wildly out of control.

The trajectory of the MSR Program’s life-cycle cost estimate, which has grown from $2.5 to $3 billion in July 2020, to $6.2 billion at KDP-B in September 2022, to an unofficial estimate of $7.4 billion as of June 2023 raises questions about the affordability of the Program.

In addition, the audit noted that this is not the end, and that based on another independent review the budget could balloon to $8 to $11 billion before all is said and done. (I will predict that as presently designed, that budget will likely reach $15 billion.)
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Ariane-6 arrives in French Guiana

Europe’s new rocket, Ariane-6, has arrived by specially-designed ship at the dock in French Guiana and is ready for off loading in advance of its presently scheduled inaugural launch this summer.

On this trip, Canopée brings the central core for Ariane 6’s first flight. Having collected the upper stage from Bremen, Germany, Canopée moved on to Le Havre, France, to load the main stage of Ariane 6. … Canopée’s structure is tailored to carry large, fragile loads as well as navigate the shallow Kourou river to Pariacabo harbour. From here the various Ariane 6 components are offloaded and transported by road to the new Ariane 6 launch vehicle assembly building just a few kilometres away.

Built for Arianespace, the commercial arm of the European Space Agency (ESA). the rocket’s launch is four years behind schedule. It is also not reuseable, which has limited its marketability and explains why ESA as well as its member nations have shifted to encouraging new private rocket companies with competing and cheaper rockets. It has decided it is a mistake to rely solely on a government-owned rocket company.

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ESA awards Spanish launch startup PLD a million-plus development contract

Capitalism in space: The European Space Agency (ESA) today awarded the Spanish launch startup PLD a €1.3 million contract to develop a payload deployment system for its Miura-5 orbital rocket, expected to make its first launch in 2025.

Designed to release all types of satellites with as much flexibility as possible, the payload system – called MOSPA for Modular Solution for Payload Adapter – will allow PLD Space to offer its customers a wider range of missions and services, including accommodation of CubeSats, nanosatellites and microsatellites. The development of the modular payload adapter will be done in partnership with OCCAM Space. The goal is to create the hardware to be as light as possible while also being as adaptable as possible to launch more satellites and meet market demands.

“PLD space has proven itself with its first launch last year, and we look forward to seeing the experience applied to the Miura 5 launch services development,” says ESA’s Jorgen Bru, “The payload adapter development engaged today was chosen to increase market competitiveness and ensure that many different types of satellites and customers can fly.”

This contract once again signals ESA’s shift from depending solely on its own launch company, Arianespace, to instead obtaining launch contracts from as many private, independent, and competing European companies as possible. Arianespace, for many reasons (some not its fault), failed to develop rockets capable of competing with SpaceX, and also failed to get them developed on time. ESA presently has no launch capability, and has had to sign contracts with SpaceX to get its payloads into orbit.

The shift is ground-shaking. It suggests that in the next two decades Europe should have a half dozen competing rocket companies of its own, all striving for business and thus all working hard to come up with ways to reduce launch costs. Under the Arianespace monopoly, little innovation took place, launch costs never dropped, and though for many years it controlled a majority of the launch market, it could never make a profit.

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The core and upper stages of the first Ariane-6 rocket are now on the way to French Guiana

After almost a decade of development and delays of more than four years, the core and upper stages of Europe’s Ariane-6 rocket are now on board ship and on the way to French Guiana for that rocket’s inaugural launch.

The Canopée ship left the port of Le Havre, in France, carrying the core and upper stages of the Ariane 6 launcher which will be used on the inaugural flight. Arrival at the port of Pariacabo in Kourou, French Guiana, from where it will be transferred to Europe’s Spaceport, is scheduled for the end of February.

Once in French Guiana, the two stages will be assembled vertically and once on the launchpad, will then have attached two solid-fueled strap-on boosters. The launch window is presently from June 15th to July 31st.

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Pieces of a defunct ESA Earth-observation satellite will hit the Earth

The orbit of a defunct European Space Agency (ESA) Earth-observation satellite, ERS-2, is expected to decay later this month, with most of the satellite burning up in the atmosphere but some pieces surviving to hit the ground.

The satellite will break apart when it hits an altitude of about 50 miles (80 km), according to the FAQ [from ESA]. Most of the resulting fragments will then burn up in the atmosphere. Don’t worry too much about the ones the make it down to the surface, for they’ll contain no toxic or radioactive substances, according to ESA.

The article and the FAQ both go out of their way to minimize the risks. Both are correct. However, the risk of this debris hitting anyone, though very very very VERY small, still exists.

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Spain awards rocket startup PLD $43.8 million grant

Capitalism in space: The Spanish rocket startup PLD has won a $43.8 million grant from the Spanish government to develop its Miura-5 orbital launch rocket.

The company won the funding after completing the preliminary design review (PDR) its Miura 5 small launch vehicle, a review that was then examined by an independent committee. The award is technically a loan, which will be paid off over 10 years once Miura 5 begins commercial operations, currently scheduled for 2026.

The rocket will compete directly with Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, with a bigger payload capacity. PLD also plans to recover and reuse its first stages after splashdown in the ocean, as Rocket Lab is now attempting to do with Electron.

The significance of this deal is multifold. It shows us that Spain is now a player in space, with its own rocket company, though still only a startup. It also provides further evidence that the nations of Europe are beginning to go their own way in space, rather than rely on their partnership in the European Space Agency and its rocket division, Arianespace. Arianespace has failed to do the job, so Spain like Germany is now looking to the private sector to get its satellite payloads in orbit.

Finally and most important, this deal illustrates the shift in Europe from being the designer and owner of rockets to being a mere customer. Rather than depend on a governnment-built and owned Arianespace rocket, Spain is buying the service from a private company, PLD. That company owns it entirely and can sell its services to others as well.

This trend away from government-owned rockets bodes well for the future of space exploration in Europe. It will produce a vibrant competitive industry with many different companies coming up with different ideas that will increase innovation while reducing cost.

It also signals the coming death of Arianespace, ESA’s commercial division which despite dominating the commercial launch market for almost two decades, was never able to make a profit ever. Instead, it produced rockets that were too expensive and required subsidies on a yearly basis. The nations of Europe are no longer willing to tolerate that bad performance, and have basically told Arianespace it either must compete with these new private companies, or die. I expect it to die. If it does survive, it will only do so if it changes radically.

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SpaceX successfully launches four astronauts to ISS on Axiom private mission

They’re coming for you next: SpaceX today successfully launched three European astronauts (plus the company capsule commander) to ISS on an Axiom private mission, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral at 4:49 pm (Eastern).

The capsule, Freedom, is flying humans into space for its third time. The first stage successfully completed its fourth flight, landing back at Cape Canaveral.

The mission itself is private, but the customer is the European Space Agency, which has paid the company Axiom to bring its astronauts to ISS for a fourteen day mission. Axiom in turn hired SpaceX to provide the rocket and capsule. This flight is confirmation that Europe has accepted the concept of capitalism in space, whereby it no longer depends on governments to accomplish what it wants, but instead is a customer buying those products from the private sector.

The astronauts are expected to dock with ISS early tomorrow morning.

The 2024 launch race:

6 SpaceX
5 China
1 India
1 ULA
1 Japan

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Next manned mission to ISS to launch tomorrow

The next manned mission to ISS, a private mission by the company Axiom carrying three European astronauts and commanded by an Axiom astronaut, is presently scheduled to launch tomorrow, January 18, 2024, at 4:49 pm (Eastern).

This is a private mission by Axiom, launched on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and flying the astronauts in its Freedom Dragon manned capsule. This will be Freedom’s third flight to ISS. The launch was originally scheduled for today, but SpaceX scrubbed the mission today in order to give it “additional time allows teams to complete pre-launch checkouts and data analysis on the vehicle.” It appears during normal prelaunch checkouts engineers found the joints between the upper stage and the capsule were not tightened the proper amount. The company decided to replace the joints, which caused this one day delay.

The crew will spend up to fourteen days at ISS.

I have embedded a live stream of the launch below.
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Italian subcontractor for Arianespace misplaces two rocket tanks

This story is hard to believe but true: The Italian company Avio, one of the subcontractors for Arianespace that builds its smaller rockets Vega and Vega-C, apparently misplaced two rocket tanks that were to be used on the Vega rocket’s last launch, thus preventing that launch entirely.

The two propellant tanks that went missing were housed in an Avio production department in Colleferro that had undergone renovation work. At some point following the completion of the renovations, the two tanks were found to be missing.

According to the initial source, the tanks had not been entered into a company-wide asset management system that tracked the location of all vital Avio components. This ensured that the teams tasked with investigating the disappearance had very little to go on when beginning their search for the missing tanks.

Despite the futility of the search, the tanks were eventually found. This was, however, not the good news Avio had hoped for. The tanks are, unfortunately, not in a usable state. They had been crushed and were found alongside metal scraps in a landfill.

The tanks power Vega’s fourth stage that deploys satellites in orbit. They were to be used on the final flight of Vega, which has been delayed repeatedly for unexplained reasons. We now know the reason.

Because this was the final flight, however, the tanks cannot be replaced because the Vega production line has been shut down. The company is considering using two of the four qualification tanks first built more than a decade ago when Vega was first being tested, but those were test tanks and have been sitting unused for as long. It will be difficult to determine their reliability.

Europe’s government-run rocket program thus at present has no rocket capable of launching. Its Ariane-5 is retired. Its Vega cannot launch. Its Vega-C, which replaces the Vega, remains grounded due to a launch failure in December 2022, with the next launch expected no earlier than late in 2024. And its new Ariane-6 rocket won’t do its first launch until the summer of 2024, at the earliest.

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ESA admits Ariane-6 will not fly until the summer of 2024

The European Space Agency today announced that the first launch of its new Ariane-6 rocket will not take place in the first quarter of 2024 and is now targeting a summer launch instead.

At a Nov. 30 briefing, ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher announced a launch period for the inaugural Ariane 6 flight of June 15 through July 31. A more precise launch date will be provided after qualification reviews in the spring of 2024. The announcement comes after a Nov. 23 long-duration test firing of a model of the core stage of the Ariane 6. That test, conducted on the launch pad at Kourou, French Guiana, was intended to simulate a full burn by the core stage.

The delay is not significant by itself, but in the large scheme of things it continues for another few months Europe’s lack of any large rockets to launch any payloads. The original plan when the Ariane-6 project was announced in the mid-2010s was for it to begin flights in 2020 with a several year overlap as the Ariane-5 was retired around 2023. As planned, the last launch of Ariane-5 occurred this summer, but Ariane-6 is now four years behind schedule.

At the moment the rocket has one more major test required, an upper stage static fire test scheduled for December. That test must go well for this new schedule to go forward, which will include a second Ariane-6 launch in 2024 followed by “as many flights as possible” in 2025. ESA hopes to do 9 to 10 Ariane-6 launches per year, most to fulfill the contract of 18 launches with Amazon to put some of its Kuiper satellite constellation into orbit.

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Ariane-6’s core stage completes full 7 minute engine test

Engineers yesterday successfully completed a two-hour dress rehearsal countdown and fueling of an Ariane-6 first stage followed by a full seven minute engine burn, simulating what that stage would do during a launch.

The test took place on Ariane-6’s launchpad in French Guiana.

The November 23 test sequence was run the same way as the previous ones, with a launch sequence and final countdown representative of a launch, including removal of the mobile gantry and filling the launcher’s upper and core stage tanks with liquid hydrogen (-253° Celsius) and liquid oxygen (-183° Celsius). The test ended with the ignition of the core stage Vulcain 2.1 engine, followed by more than 7 minutes of stabilized operation covering the entire core stage flight phase. All functional aspects of Ariane 6’s core stage during the flight phase were tested.

According to the European Space Agency, only one more engine test of the Ariane-6’s upper stage remains before the spring launch can be attempted, and that engine test is planned for next month in Germany.

With the retirement of the Ariane-5 rocket in July, Europe has had no large rocket to launch payloads. Originally Ariane-6’s first launches were supposed to be in parallel with Ariane-5’s last launches, but its development is four years behind schedule.

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ESA firms up space station partnership with Voyager Space

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the American company Voyager Space last week signed an agreement making Voyager’s Starlab space station Europe’s main space station destination, replacing ISS.

Starlab will fulfill that role, at least partially, in the future for the space agencies of individual ESA member states. It’s expected to launch as soon as 2028, with operations set to start in 2029. This will include access for astronaut missions and to conduct research as well as providing opportunities for commercial business development. Starlab is also set to provide a complete “end-to-end” system in low-Earth orbit to which European crews and cargo will journey.

This European deal became more likely when Airbus joined the partnership of Voyager and Lockheed Martin in January 2023. It is also probably why Northrop Grumman in October 2023 abandoned its own space station project and joined this one instead. ESA is a big customer, most likely to guarantee the most profits.

What makes this deal different than ISS is that the station will not be owned by this large government customer. The companies building Starlab — led by Voyager — will be free to sell its services to anyone who wishes to use it. This deal also means that NASA and ESA will be going separate ways after ISS, no longer partnering on a station.

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