The investigation into the failure of the Russian Proton rocket on May 16 says it will make its report by June 8.
The story says that the results will not be “sensational” but that they will also be accompanied by further delays in future Proton launches.
The Russian investigation into the most recent Proton launch failure has not yet ruled out sabotage as the cause.
I think sabotage is highly unlikely, and their hint at it is mostly an effort to include all possibilities in their investigation.
Update: This report confirms my analysis. It appears the news story above was a bit overheated for the powers-that-be in Russia, and thus Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin felt strongly compelled to correct the record immediately.
Sources in Russia say that it was human error in the rocket assembly that caused last week’s Proton launch failure.
The competition heats up: The launch failure Thursday of a Russian Proton rocket is putting the squeeze on the commercial satellite industry.
Periodically I am told by launch industry experts that the launch industry doesn’t have sufficient demand or capacity for more launch companies. It was this logic, for example, that prompted Boeing and Lockheed Martin to combine into ULA and do a bulk buy with the Air Force. Otherwise, they claimed, they didn’t have enough business to compete with each other and stay in business.
This article above puts the lie to these claims. Not only is there plenty of demand, companies like SpaceX would probably up their fees if they wanted to because the supply does not even come close to meeting the demand. In fact, satellite companies want to get their satellites into orbit and can’t because of a shortage of launch services.
This shortage is an opportunity, not only for the companies that exist but for any new companies trying to get started, such as Stratolaunch. Rather than sit on their hands, as have Boeing and Lockheed Martin, an ambitious and competitive effort here could win market share and make lots of money.
Debris from the Proton launch failure yesterday has been found in China.
The vagueness of yesterday’s Russia reports suggested to me the possibility that the rocket might have fallen into another country’s territory, something the Russians would normally not like to advertise. It appears, however, that most of the satellite and rocket has burned up before hitting the ground.
This report clarifies some details about the failure. It was the Proton’s third stage that failed, not the Briz-M stage that has caused failures in the past. This is also the 6th failure of a Proton since December 2010, a poor launch record that strongly indicates serious quality control problems in the manufacture of this rocket.
Update: Inmarsat, one of the Proton rocket’s biggest customers, is considering dumping the Proton for future launches. To do so will be expensive and will likely delay the launch of their next two satellites, both of which were scheduled for launch on a Proton in 2014. Nonetheless, it appears they are considering it.
When it rains it pours: A Russian Proton rocket crashed today nine minutes after launch.
Considering the tensions between the U.S. and Russia over space, combined with the increasing competition for the launch market created by SpaceX’s lower prices, another Proton failure now is something the Russians could do without. Moreover, the Russians were planning a lot of Proton launches in the next few months to catch up from last year’s launch failure. Many of these scheduled launches were commercial and were going to earn them hard cash. This failure definitely hurts, and will certainly be used as justification by their government in increase its control over that country’s aging aerospace industry.
The competition heats up: The Russians have ten launches scheduled in the next three months, using their Proton, Soyuz, Zenit, Rokot, and new Angara rockets.
Half of these launches are for commercial customers.
The competition heats up: Russia’s Proton rocket successfully put two satellites into orbit on Monday.
This is the first of a slew of Proton launches in the next few months as they work to catch up on their launch manifest.
The competition heats up: The Russian company that owns the Proton rocket is considering a redesign that would allow them to launch two satellites on one rocket.
Launching two or more satellites during a single launch is not ground-breaking technology, but the Russian have never done it with their Proton. If they make this change, it will allow them to reduce the cost for a commercial launch considerably, thus making them more competitive against companies like SpaceX.
That they have decided to consider this now, after almost three decades of commercial operation since the fall of the Soviet Union, is more proof that the low prices of SpaceX are forcing innovation and an effort to lower costs across the entire launch market.
Update: My statement above about Proton never launching more than one satellite is wrong. They have done it numerous times, something I am very aware of but for some reason completely forgot when I was writing this post. (The jet lag from the trip to Israel must still be affecting my brain.) In fact, they have just rolled to the launchpad a Proton with two communications satellites on board, a fact that makes the story at the first link above very puzzling.
The competition heats up: Russia’s Proton rocket successfully put a commercial Turkish communications satellite into orbit on Saturday.
Another successful Proton rocket launch took place today in Russia, putting a Russian communications satellite into orbit.
This is the fourth successful Proton launch since July’s spectacular failure, suggesting that the Russians have gotten the rocket’s manufacturing process back on track.
Tbe competition heats up: International Launch Services ((ILS) has successfully launched its Russian Proton rocket to put another commercial communications satellite into orbit.
This launch solidifies the recovery of the Proton rocket since the disastrous July launch. With the Russian government forcing a consolidation of all Russian aerospace companies into one government owned cooperation, however, it is unclear what will happen to ILS and Khrunichev (the Russian company that makes the Proton).
The competition heats up: A Proton rocket successfully launched a Russian military satellite today.
This is Proton’s the third successful launch in a row since July’s spectacular launch crash. It seems they have straightened out their quality control problems, for the moment.
The competition heats up: Russian owned International Launch Services (ILS) today successfully used its Proton rocket to launch a commercial satellite.
This is the second successfully Proton launch since July’s spectacular failure. The company seems to be recovering, which of course means that the competition for launch services will get hotter in 2014.
Which is excellent news. The competition will keep these companies on their toes, and force them to innovate in order to stay in business. In the long run this will lower the cost to orbit and make space more accessible to everyone.
Russia’s Proton rocket returned to flight today with a successful launch of a commercial satellite.
This launch only occurred about two hours ago and all appears at this time to be going well. For the Russians this is a crucial flight, as they need to demonstrate that they are cleaning up their quality control problems following the spectacular Proton launch failure in July in order to compete in the increasingly competitive launch market.
The competition heats up: The Russians have now rescheduled for September 30 the next Proton rocket launch.
The Russian Proton rocket’s return to flight following its spectacular July 2 failure has been rescheduled for Sept. 30 following a review of a first-stage valve issue and discussions between the Russian and Kazakh governments over launch safety issues.
They claim the main reason for the delay was the issues of clean-up following the July 2 launch crash, but that “first-stage valve issue” intrigues me. They have been very closed-mouth about it, yet it very clearly existed.
The Russians have delayed the next Proton launch, scheduled for September 17, for at least a week.
They have not described the problem in any article I can find, but considering their recent failures it doesn’t surprise me if they are being extra careful now.
The Russians have now fired three executives as a result of their investigation into last month’s Proton launch disaster.
This is in conjunction with hiring an American to take over quality control.
It appears there is some “dissatisfaction” among Kazakhstan officials over the cleanup from July’s spectacular Proton rocket crash.
I think the Russians are probably rushing the clean-up in order to begin launch operations as soon as possible, and this is what Kazakhstan finds objectionable.
Russia has concluded its investigation into last month’s Proton launch failure and now says its next launch will be on September 15.
While the investigation pinpointed the problem — the installation of sensors upside down — none of the news reports about this investigation have mentioned what any corrective actions the Russians are taking. Meanwhile, at least one unnamed Russian engineer is questioning the schedule and the thoroughness of the investigation.
