Tag: spaceflight

SpaceX’s contract to de-orbit ISS reveals the inability of the older space companies to compete

9:49 am

Link here. The article goes into detail about the bidding process that led to SpaceX winning the contract $843 million fixed-price contract to build a specialized Dragon capsule to dock with ISS and de-orbit it. While its focus is on the refusal of the older companies (Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing) to sign the fixed-price contracts that NASA now prefers and that SpaceX can handle with no problem, it was this section that struck me the most:

SpaceX’s bid price was $680 million. The source selection statement did not reveal a price for Northrop’s bid other than saying it was “significantly higher.” Based on NASA’s budget request, Northrop’s bid was likely approximately twice as high.

But SpaceX did not just win on price. Its “mission suitability” score, effectively its technical ability to design, develop, and fly a vehicle capable of deorbiting the space station, was 822, compared to Northrop’s score of 589. SpaceX’s approach had one weakness, compared to seven weaknesses in Northrop’s bid, according to NASA evaluators.

Finally, the selection was also based on past performance by the contractors. SpaceX’s performance was rated as “very high,” given how it has delivered with the Cargo and Crew Dragon spacecraft and its Falcon 9 rocket. Northrop’s performance on Cygnus and its various rockets was given a “moderate” rating. Overall, the NASA evaluators expressed a “very high level” of confidence in SpaceX being able to complete the mission, whereas a “moderate level” of confidence was expressed in Northrop.

In other words, Northrop not only couldn’t do the job as cheaply and wasn’t even willing to do it at a fixed price, its technical performance has not been that good either.

The article focuses rightly on the present lack of any viable competitors to SpaceX, and the problems this raises for the entire American aerospace industry. I want to point out how this situation reveals a much more fundamental problem with the industry itself. The established aerospace industry is not only doing poor work, it is overcharging for it.

Or to put it more bluntly, it is unwilling or unable to compete. Relying on businesses with such bankrupt attitudes is not a good way to get anything done.

The hope had been that the newer startups (Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, Relativity, Firefly, etc) would pick up this slack, but except for Blue Origin the rocket capabilities of these companies are just not big enough yet to do it. Blue Origin’s proposed New Glenn rocket and associated spacecraft could do the job, but the company has demonstrated for the past decade its desire to emulate the older and failing big space companies rather than a new fresh face.

The new companies, given time, could solve this problem, since they are all willing to innovate and compete, but the apparent increase in the regulations imposed by the FAA and other government agencies in the past two years suggests they will be squelched as well.

Unless something changes, the U.S. is not going to see the space renaissance that seemed so promising only two years ago.

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Axiom hires British astronaut Tim Peake

9:32 am

Axiom has now added British astronaut Tim Peake to its staff, making him the fourth astronaut after Michael Lopez-Alegria, Peggy Whitson, and Koichi Wakata working for the commercial space station and space tourism company.

The decision appears to be in connection with Axiom’s agreement with the UK Space Agency to fly an all-British manned commercial mission in exchange for $19 million in government funding. NASA regulations require any commercial mission that docks with ISS to include as a company commander an experienced astronaut. By hiring Peake Axiom fulfills this requirement.

No date for this four-person two week mission to ISS has been announced. Nor have any other passengers been named. It is very possible this announcement today is a PR effort by Axiom to drum up interest from potential British customers because the earlier announcements have possibly failed to do so.

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Scientists find hydrogen molecules in Chang’e-5 lunar samples

9:18 am

According to China’s state-run press, scientists analyzing the lunar samples brought back by its Chang’e-5 lander have detected extensive “hydrated” molecules in Moon’s regolith.

The mineral’s structure and composition bear a striking resemblance to a mineral found near volcanoes on Earth. At the same time, terrestrial contamination or rocket exhaust has been ruled out as the origin of this hydrate, according to the study.

The Chinese article keeps referring to these molecules as a form of “water molecules” but that is dead wrong. These are mineral molecules that simply have hydrogen as a component. There is no water here.

The discovery suggests that the detection of hydrogen on the surface of the Moon, both in the permanently-shadowed craters at the poles as well as lower latitudes, might not be water at all, but hydrated minerals. If so, the Moon is going to be a much more difficult place to establish colonies or even research bases, as getting water (and hydrogen and oxygen) is going to require a much more difficult mining and processing effort.

For several years the data has increasingly pointed in this direction. And for several years I have noticed a strong unwillingness of scientists and the press to recognize the trend (as illustrated by the above article’s false insistence that these are water molecules). Water ice has not been ruled out yet in the permanently-shadowed craters at the poles, but the evidence is mounting against it.

I suspect this reluctance is fueled by a desire to not say anything that might discourage exploration of the Moon, and the possibility of water there has been the main driver for all the recent lunar exploration programs. I can’t play that game. As much as I want humanity to explore the Moon and the solar system, we mustn’t do it based on lies. The facts need to be reported coldly.

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More great hiking on Mars

11:01 am

More great hiking on Mars
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image takes us to another place on Mars where future colonizers will find the hiking breath-taking. The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 18, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The camera team labeled it merely as a “terrain sample,” indicating it was not taken as part of any specific research project request, but to fill a gap in the schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature. When the MRO team does this, they try to pick interesting sites, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

In this case the image captured the sharp nose of a 2,100-foot-high mesa which to my eye immedately said, “I want to hike a trail that switchbacks up that nose!” Ideally, the trail would then skirt the edge of the mesa, then head up to the top of that small knoll on the plateau. Though only another 200 feet higher or so, the peak would provide an amazing 360 degree view of the surrounding terrrain.
» Read more

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New collection of X-ray false-color Chandra images

9:30 am

Chandra image of galaxy
Click for original image.

Cool image time! As part of a PR campaign by NASA to convince Congress to give it more money to keep the Chandra X-ray Observatory funded, the agency this week released twenty-five new images, supposedly to celebrate the space telescope’s 25th anniversary since launch.

It must be emphasized that these photos are not solely produced by Chandra. They combine its X-ray data wth optical data from Hubble and infrared data from a number of other telescopes.

The picture to the right is of the galaxy NGC 6872 that is interacting with its nearby smaller neighbor. From the caption:

NGC 6872 is 522,000 light-years across, making it more than five times the size of the Milky Way galaxy; in 2013, astronomers from the United States, Chile, and Brazil found it to be the largest-known spiral galaxy, based on archival data from NASA’s Galaxy Evolution Explorer. This record was surpassed by NGC 262, a galaxy that measures 1.3 million light-years in diameter.

Chandra will get its funding to continue operations. NASA is simply playing its old game of bluff with Congress to force it to give the agency a boost in funding. Like a toddler throwing a tantrum, it cancels a successful project, citing funding shortages (even though those shortages are almost always because of mismanagement elsewhere in the agency), and Congress eventually gives in like a weak parent, raising NASA’s budget.

The big image release this week is part of that game. Nonetheless, the images are spectacular, and loaded with new information not otherwise available without Chandra’s X-ray capabilities. If Congress had any spine, it would force NASA to fully fund such successful projects and simply delete the failed ones (such as SLS and Mars Sample Return). It has no spine, however, and thus we have a national debt in the trillions that is bankrupting us.

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Russia releases timeline for its Russian Orbital Station to replace its ISS operations

9:03 am

Tabletop Model of Russian Space Station
A tabletop model of the station unveiled in 2022

Earlier this month Russia released a detailed timeline for the construction of its Russian Orbital Station (ROS) to replace its ISS operations once the older station is retired and de-orbited, with the first station module supposedly launched in 2027 and the station completed by 2033.

Russia is set to launch the future orbital outpost’s first research and energy module in 2027, Roscosmos said. Roscosmos also plans to launch the universal nodal, gateway and baseline modules by 2030 to form the core orbital station together with the research and energy module, it said. “At the second stage, from 2031 to 2033, the station is set to expand by docking two special-purpose modules (TsM1 and TsM2),” Roscosmos said.

The project is estimated at 608.9 billion rubles (about $6.98 billion).

This project has been discussed in Russia since the middle of the last decade, and as usual for Russian government-run space projects, it has limped along with little but powerpoint proposals and small demo models (as shown on the right) for years. The impending end of ISS and its replacement by commercial stations (that will not include any Russian participation) seems to have finally helped get the project started for real.

Don’t expect this above schedule however to meet its target dates. Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years.

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Astroscale wins contract to deorbit OneWeb satellite

8:50 am

The orbital tug company Astroscale has won a $15 million contract from both the UK and European space agencies to launch a mission to rendezvous, grab and then deorbit a defunct OneWeb communications satellite.

The company, originally from Japan, has established operations in both the U.S. and Europe in order to win contracts from those regions, and had already signed contracts with OneWeb, several UK companies, the the European Space Agency (ESA), and the UK Space Agency for this project. This new contract apparently releases the money from both ESA and the UK.

The mission, dubbed ELSA-M, is will fly no later than April 2026, will be built by Astroscale’s UK division in Oxford, and is a follow-up of the ELSA-d mission that in 2021 demonstrated rendezvous and proximity operations but was unable to complete a docking using Astroscale’s magnetic capture system because of failed thrusters. I suspect the reason this new deal was finally approved is because of Astroscale’s more recent successes in another mission for Japan’s JAXA space agency, ADRAS-J, rendezvousing and flying in proximity to an old abandoned H2A rocket upper stage.

The new mission will attempt once again to prove the practicality of Astroscale’s magnetic capture system, which it is trying to convince all satellite companies to include on their satellites.

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UK distributes cash to space sector to keep them in the UK

12:23 pm

The United Kingdom government today announced five different grants totalling $14 million to various institutions and companies in an effort to promote aerospace operations within the UK.

The biggest grant, $6.45 million, went to the German rocket startup Hyimpulse to help pay the cost of a vertical launch of its SR75 test suborbital rocket from the Saxavord spaceport in the Shetland Islands.

Hyimpulse, which had originally planned to do its test launches from Saxavord, had been forced to do its first launch from the Southern Launch spaceport in Australia because of regulatory delays in the UK. Because of that red tape the company also signed a further agreement with that Australian spaceport for future test flights. It appears this grant is the UK government effort to get Hyimpulse launches back.

Nor is this the first such grant to Hyimpulse, or to a German rocket startup. Previously Hyimpulse had won two grants totaling almost $5 million. In addition, the UK has also awarded the German rocket startup Rocket Factory Augsburg just under $5 million.

Of the other four grants in this most recent award, the second biggest ($4.57 million) went to a Glasgow company, Spire Global, to develop better weather satellite forecasting technologies. The other three grants were all about a million dollars each, and went a variety of space sector institutions/companies in Scotland.

It is apparent that the red tape problems at Saxavord that has been driving rocket startups away from the UK has forced the UK government to reach into its wallet to try to keep them from leaving. For these companies, taking the money is a two-edge sword. The cash is nice, but if they can’t launch as planned it does them little good. I expect these deals require Hyimpulse and Rocket Factory to launch from Saxavord, but do not require them to do so first. This gives these companies the freedom to go elsewhere if necessary to meet their schedules.

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A classic spiral galaxy

8:53 am

A classic spiral galaxy
Click for original image.

Monday is always a slow news day in space, so we start the day with a cool image. The picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope of a spiral galaxy about 100 million light years from Earth.

That NGC 3430 is such a fine example of a galactic spiral may be why it ended up as part of the sample that Edwin Hubble used to define his classification of galaxies. Namesake of the Hubble Space Telescope, in 1926 he authored a paper which classified some four hundred galaxies by their appearance — as either spiral, barred spiral, lenticular, elliptical or irregular. This straightforward typology proved immensely influential, and the modern, more detailed schemes that astronomers use today are still based on it. NGC 3430 itself is an SAc galaxy, a spiral lacking a central bar with open, clearly-defined arms.

The bright blue indicates areas of star formation, while the reddish streaks indicates dust. The orange/reddish dots above and below the galaxy are distant background galaxies whose light has been shifted to the red because they appear to be moving away from us due to the expansion rate of the universe.

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NASA suspends all U.S. spacewalks on ISS due to water leak

9:03 am

Because of a water leak that occurred in an umblical cord at the beginning of a spacewalk on June 24, 2024, NASA has now suspended all U.S. spacewalks on ISS as it investigates the cause.

Tracy Dyson, a NASA astronaut, had a brief spacesuit leak a month ago while still in the hatch of the International Space Station (ISS). She and Mike Barrett had just opened the door for a 6.5-hour spacewalk for maintenance activities, when showers of ice particles erupted from a spacesuit connection to the ISS. The spacewalk was suspended, but the astronauts were never in any danger, NASA has emphasized.

“That spacewalk ended early because of a water leak in the suit’s service and cooling umbilical; that’s the site that’s connected to ISS,” station program manager Dana Weigel, of NASA, told reporters in a teleconference Wednesday (July 17). (Astronaut spacesuits stay connected to ISS life support systems via that umbilical until just before they exit the hatch.) “We’re still taking a look at the cause of the water leak, and what we want to do to recover,” Weigel added. “We’ll go look for the next opportunity for where we want to do the spacewalk. It’s not time-critical or urgent, and so we’ll find the best, logical place to put it.”

At this moment NASA has still not identified the cause of the leak, though astronauts on ISS have been inspecting the umblical cord as well as the entire suit, disassembling components where possible.

What really needs to happen is the delivery of newly designed suits, something NASA has wanted done for about fifteen years. The agency spent most of that time making powerpoint presentations and spending a billion dollars, with no new suits produced. It is now hoping its spacesuit contract with Axiom will get it new spacesuits.

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ESA’s Juice probe to Jupiter prepares for first Earth+Moon slingshot fly-by

10:35 am

Graphic showing Juice's upcoming duel fly-by
Graphic showing Juice’s upcoming duel fly-by.
Click for original image.

The European Space Agency’s (ESA) first mission to Jupiter, dubbed Juice (Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer) is about to do the first ever back-to-back fly-bys of the Moon and then the Earth immediately afterward in order to slingshot it forward on its long journey to the gas giant.

The graphic to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, shows the plan. Juice will first fly past the Moon, shifting its path slightly, and then zip past the Earth one day later, its trajectory then under-going a much larger change.

The lunar-Earth flyby will see Juice pass just 700 km [435 miles] from the Moon’s surface at 23:16 CEST on 19 August and 6807 km [4230 miles] from Earth’s surface almost exactly 24 hours later at 23:57 CEST on 20 August.

Using the gravity of the Moon to slightly bend Juice’s trajectory first will improve the effectiveness of the much larger gravity assist at Earth. However, the dual flyby requires extraordinarily precise navigation and timing, as even minor deviations could send Juice in the wrong direction.

The engineering teams have already been doing simulations to make sure they get this complex maneuver right. If all goes right, the spacecraft will then do flybys of Venus in August 2025, Earth in September 2026, and Earth again in January 2029, arriving in Jupiter orbit in July 2031.

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Rocks broken by Curiosity’s wheels contain the first pure sulfur crystals found on Mars

10:16 am

Curiosity's robot arm about to take a close look at the ground
Click for original image.

Close-up of rocks on Mars
Click for original image.

When Curiosity completed a drive on May 30, 2024, subsequent images from the rover revealed that the wheels had broken apart some small rocks, revealing very bright yellow materials not normally seen on the planet.

I posted those images on June 7, 2024 — noting that such colorful and crystal-like surface features have been rarely seen by Curiosity — and post them again now, with the top picture showing the broken rocks, labeled as “target rocks”, just after the robot arm had rotated up and away from a close inspection and imaging of those rocks. The picture to the right is a close-up taken by Curiosity’s Mars Hand Lens Imager (MAHLI), located at the end of the rover’s robot arm and designed to get close-up high resolution images of the ground that the arm is exploring. Everything in this image is tiny, in the millimeters in scale.

The science team yesterday confirmed that those unusual rocks are the first pure crystals of sulfur found on the red planet.

Since October 2023, the rover has been exploring a region of Mars rich with sulfates, a kind of salt that contains sulfur and forms as water evaporates. But where past detections have been of sulfur-based minerals — in other words, a mix of sulfur and other materials — the rock Curiosity recently cracked open is made of elemental, or pure, sulfur. It isn’t clear what relationship, if any, the elemental sulfur has to other sulfur-based minerals in the area.

While people associate sulfur with the odor from rotten eggs (the result of hydrogen sulfide gas), elemental sulfur is odorless. It forms in only a narrow range of conditions that scientists haven’t associated with the history of this location. And Curiosity found a lot of it — an entire field of bright rocks that look similar to the one the rover crushed.

Analysis of samples taken from drilling into a nearby much more structurally solid rock is presently on-going. As for theories explaining the presence of this pure sulfur, those are being worked on as well.

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