Year: 2024

Young lava on the Moon?

9:08 am

Young lava on the Moon?
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on November 27, 2023 by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and was today featured by the science team. From their caption:

One of the early findings from the LRO mission was the discovery of volcanic features known as Irregular Mare Patches (IMPs) scattered across the nearside. These landforms are generally considered volcanic. However, their ages are hotly debated. They may be as young as 50 million years or as old as 3.5 billion years. The Aristarchus IMP (25.045°N, 313.233°E) is one of the smallest and most enigmatic IMP. The fact that this IMP is found within the Aristarchus crater ejecta suggests it formed after the crater, which is dated at 200 million years.

Alternatively, this IMP may have formed as part of ejecta emplacement from the Aristarchus crater forming impact. However, no other crater ejecta on the Moon exhibits a similar landform.

Astronomers for decades before and since Sputnick have reported what appears to be some activity in the Aristachus region, though none of those reports have ever been confirmed. In LRO’s long mission orbiting the Moon it has not yet detected any obvious changes there, suggesting that there is little or no present activity. These patches however appear to indicate activity in the relatively recent past.

The patches however also indicate activity that seems alien. Why would the lava form in this manner, as rough patch of knobs, sometimes aligned, sometimes not?

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Oman: 1st launch from Duqm spaceport by the end of the year

2:31 pm

Middle East, showing Oman's proposed spaceport

According to an announcement yesterday Oman plans to complete its first launch before the end of 2024 from its proposed new spaceport near the city of Duqm on the Indian coast.

The map to the right indicates its location. Oman has dubbed the spaceport Etlaq, and it is being run by what Oman claims is a private company, the National Aerospace Services Company (NASCOM), but based on what little I can find out, it appears either to be Oman’s space agency, or a variation of the pseudo-companies in China, privately run but very tightly controlled and owned by government officials.

The announcement provided no information about the rocket or launch, which I suspect will be nothing more than a relatively simple suborbital mission, designed to demonstrate they are serious about this spaceport. The news story at the link shows a picture of a very sophisticated rocket resembling India’s GSLV rocket. I think it is a AI image having nothing to do with reality.

This project was first announced in 2023, with more information released in January 2024. It hopes to attract American rocket companies by claiming it is being built to FAA standards.

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SpaceX successfully launches twenty OneWeb satellites

11:33 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully launched twenty OneWeb satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The first stage completed its seventh flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The fairing halves completed their eleventh and thirteenth flights respectively.

SpaceX has done several launches for OneWeb, the chief competitor to its own Starlink constellation. It won the contract when Russian invaded the Ukraine and — in response to new sanctions imposed by Europe — refused to launch a planned OneWeb launch while confiscating the satellites. OneWeb responded by cancelling its last six Soyuz launches, worth as much as a billion dollars, and signed SpaceX and India’s space agency ISRO instead.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

102 SpaceX
46 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 119 to 69, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 102 to 86.

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Good news: The European Union’s space law is delayed

10:38 am

According to comments by one official of the European Union (EU) at a conference in Italy this week, its proposed space law has been delayed and will not be ready for publication in 2024, as previously promised.

It appears the delay is mostly because of what appear to be complex objections to this law from many of the EU’s many member nations.

Ten of the European Union’s 27 member states “have a full-fledged national space law addressing private-sector operation,” Von der Dunk said. The national laws cover authorization and supervision of commercial activities under Article VI of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.

The EU’s authority to promote scientific progress and the industrial competitiveness of member states comes from the 2007 Lisbon Treaty. That authority is limited, though. “The commission has to make an argument why [space law] should be treated at the EU level, as opposed to the national level,” Von der Dunk said. [emphasis mine]

As I noted in April 2024 when the release of the EU’s space law was pushed back until the summer of 2024 (which by the way did not happen), those member nations do not wish to give the EU that authority, as the EU’s track record in these kinds of matters is heavy regulation and a lot or red tape, all designed to give it power and squelch private enterprise.

It appears those member nations are acting to block this law, and appear to be succeeding. My guess is that Germany, France, Spain, and Italy are the main opponents, all of which have their own space laws in place and are now developing viable private commercial rocket and spacecraft companies. They don’t want the EU’s busy hands anywhere close to these businesses, because they expect it to squash them if it gets the chance.

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Space Force awards SpaceX big launch contract

10:24 am

Space Force yesterday awarded SpaceX a $733 million contract for what appears to be a total of eight future launches of military and national security payloads.

Few details were released about the payloads, including the launch timeline. The deal was issued as part of the military launch contracting system, which in June named SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as its launch providers for the next five years.

However, one official’s comment appeared to suggest this contract award was the military’s expression of disgust at the delays at ULA and Blue Origin in getting their rockets launchworthy.

“In this era of Great Power Competition, it is imperative to not leave capability on the ground,” Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, said in an emailed statement on Friday. “The Phase 3 Lane 1 construct allows us to execute launch services more quickly for the more risk-tolerant payloads, putting more capabilities on orbit faster in order to support national security,” Panzenhagen added. [emphasis mine]

In other words, the Space Force wanted to split this contract between the three companies, but it decided to give it all to SpaceX because it expected any launches given to ULA and Blue Origin would not launch on time, and it didn’t want “to leave [that] capability on the ground.”

In the case of ULA, its Vulcan rocket finally made its first two launches this year, four years late, but on the second launch had a failure on one of its solid-fueled strap-on boosters (the nozzle fell off). Though the rocket successfully placed its dummy payload into the correct orbit, the military has either decided that it can’t yet certify Vulcan for military launches, or sees further delays while the investigation and fixes are installed.

As for Blue Origin, its New Glenn rocket is also four years behind schedule, and likely won’t launch until next year. To get it certified will also probably require two launches, and since that company never seems to be in a hurry to do anything (NASA removed its payload from New Glenn’s first launch because the company had failed to meet the required interplanetary launch window), the Pentagon probably decided it can’t give it any contracts at this time.

And so, more launches and profits for SpaceX. While it is great for that company, with revenue that will likely aid in developing Starship/Superheavy, this is not a healthy situation for the American space industry. As a nation we need more than one launch provider. We need these other companies to stop dithering around and get the job done. That’s the true American way. Have they forgotten how to do it?

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SpaceX launches 21 more Starlink satellites

4:39 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched another 21 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its seventeenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

101 SpaceX
46 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 118 to 69, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 101 to 86.

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October 18, 2024 Quick space links

3:08 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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A different kind of chaos on Mars

2:25 pm

A different kind of chaos on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on June 23, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). I had originally chosen to feature a different picture of this spot, taken on August 1, 2024 in order to create a stereo pair, but this week the camera team featured this first photo, providing a caption.

This disrupted surface is characterized by a collection of rounded to flat-topped mounds of various sizes connected by narrow flat floors, typical of the aptly named “chaotic terrain” on Mars.

What could have caused this flat surface to break into pieces? You might imagine that a flat surface could be broken up if it was inflated or collapsed. One hypothesis is that large amounts of water were released from deep below the ground to cause the surface break up.

Normally on Mars, especially in the mid-latitudes, chaotic terrain is associated with glacial activity, suggesting that glaciers over time erode valleys along random criss-crossing fault lines to create the mesas and canyons. This patch of chaotic terrain however suggests a different formation process.
» Read more

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GAO: Next SLS Artemis launches will almost certainly be delayed

10:52 am

SLS's two mobile launchers, costing $1 billion
NASA’s bloated SLS mobile launchers

According to a new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released yesterday, NASA’S continuing delays and technical problems building the various ground systems required for the next few Artemis launches will almost certainly cause those launches to be delayed.

The schedule at present is as follows:

  • September 2025: Artemis-2 will be the program’s first manned mission, taking four astranauts around the Moon.
  • September 2026: Artemis-3 will complete the first manned lunar landing.
  • September 2028: Artemis-4 will send four astronauts to the Lunar Gateway station in orbit around the Moon, and then complete the second manned lunar landing.

The GAO report notes at length that modifications to the mobile launch platform SLS will use on the first two missions is taking longer than planned. It also notes that the problems completing the second mobile launcher continue, with the budget growing from $383 million to $1.1 billion, and the work years behind schedule with no certainty it will be completed in time for the 2028 mission. These issues are the same ones noted by NASA’s inspector general in August 2024.

Orion's damage heat shield
Damage to Orion heat shield caused during re-entry,
including “cavities resulting from the loss of large chunks”

This report focused exclusively on the scheduling delays for the ground systems that will be used by SLS for each launch. It did not address the serious questions that remain concerning the serious heat shield damage experienced by the Orion capsule when it returned to Earth on its first unmanned mission in late 2022. NASA has been studying that problem now for two years, and as yet has not revealed a solution.

I continue to predict that the first manned landing, now scheduled for 2026, will not occur before 2030, six years behind the schedule first proposed by President Trump but actually fifteen years behind the schedule initially proposed by President George Bush Jr in 2004. All in all, it will take NASA almost a third of a century to put American astronauts back on the Moon, assuming the landing occurs in 2030 as I now predict. Compare that with the development time of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy. Proposed in 2017, it is already flying, and will almost certainly complete its first private manned lunar mission and its first test missions to Mars by 2027. The contrast is striking.

More and more the entire part of Artemis run by NASA is proving to be the failed disaster I predicted it would be in 2011. No wonder former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg wrote an op-ed yesterday calling for its cancellation. Like most politicians, reality is finally percolating into his thick skull, though several decades late.

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Commerce loosens regulations, allowing American space companies easier use of international facilities

9:42 am

The Commerce department today announced that it has issued three new rulings that will ease the regulations and licensing procedures that American rocket and satellite companies have to go through in order to launch from international facilities.

The first rule will ease licensing for launches from Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. This will make it easier for American rocket companies to launch from the new spaceports being built in these nations, as well as allow satellite and orbital tug companies to launch their spacecraft from these nations using non-American rockets.

The second rule, still in its interim stage of approval, would ease the export licensing for satellites and spacecraft “to over 40 allies and partners worldwide, reducing licensing requirements for the least sensitive components for most destinations, and broadening license exceptions to support additional National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) cooperative programs.” It appears this ruling focuses specifically on the countries who have signed the Artemis Accords, joining NASA’s Artemis program.

The third rule, which is at present only proposed, will remove from the State Department’s strict ITAR regulations many space-related defense technology, transfering their licensing to the much more relaxed Commerce department. This ruling appears aimed at helping the new burgeoning orbital tug, refueling, and satellite servicing industry, which uses rendezvous and proximity technology that was previously considered military in nature.

While it appears this easing of regulation goes against the Biden administration general policy of tightening regulations, the changes make sense if we recognize that these regulations also loosen access to American technology for many international partners, something this administration favors.

All in all, however, the changes are thoughtfully worked out, and will likely help energize the American space industry without releasing important technology to the wrong nations.

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