The uncertainty of science: New data has allowed astronomers to propose a more detailed explanation for the dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020 by almost two-thirds.

[T]he dimming was likely to be caused by [one of two] mechanisms, such as a blob of unusually cold matter appearing on the surface of the star in what’s known as a convective cell, or a cloud of dust crossing the line of sight to it.

Now, astrophysicist Miguel Montargès at the Paris Observatory and his collaborators have found that the reason for the ‘great dimming’ was probably a combination of both of those factors

The data suggest that the star spewed out material from a convection cell, which then quickly condensed into dust which acted to block the star’s light. The growing cell itself also was darker, which also contributed to the dimming.

The results, while robust, are still uncertain. While a number of mainstream news sources are claiming the mystery of Betelgeuse’s dimming has been “solved”, that is not how it works. The data now points to an answer, but the data is far from complete, and future observations could very easily change that answer.