Study: Absolutely NO excess deaths from COVID-19
UPDATE: It appears the newsletter analysis that I linked to below was too hopeful for the authorities at Johns Hopkins, even though it was based on actual data. Mere minutes after I posted this they took it down, censoring this conclusion. Though I quoted a lot below, the article was much longer, included detailed graphs, and was thoughtful and thorough.
Positive news like this however must not be published. It must be squelched and silenced. We must live in fear, even if the thing we fear does not exist.
One of my readers below however found it on the Wayback Machine, here.
I have also embedded below the fold the webinar where the information censored was discussed in detail. In case Johns Hopkins or Youtube decides to censor this webinar also, another one of my readers below has downloaded it and made it available here. (It is very sad that a university now considers Orwell’s 1984 to be an instruction manual instead of a warning.)
Another reader has uploaded the file to Rumble, so I have embedded that video below as well.
Furthermore, another reader has provided me a high quality pdf of the original post, which I have uploaded and you can download here.
Original post:
——————————
A new analysis of the 2020 death statistics in the United States has revealed that despite the panic over COVID-19, the total number of deaths in all age groups — including the elderly — showed no change before or after the arrival of the virus.
This bears repeating, in bold and italics: There have been no excess deaths in 2020.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same. “The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.
Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
And yet, there have been so many COVID-19 deaths! How can the total number of deaths not be higher? The researcher looked more closely, and discovered (surprise! surprise!) that there was an unreasonable drop in other causes, matching exactly the increase in coronavirus deaths.
When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, … the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19. [emphasis mine]
In other words, COVID-19 is just another type of flu-like respiratory disease, that is only appearing terrible because doctors and hospitals are incorrectly labeling many deaths as COVID-19 when in past years they would have labeled them based on the existing chronic illnesses the patient already had.
It has all been a scam, a Chicken Little scam induced by some very evil people in government to cause fear and panic in the general population. I leave it to my readers to figure out why.
Regardless, it is time for people to come to their senses. Let the worry warts cower in mindless fear in their basements. Rip off that mask, go back to living your normal American life, free and open, pursuing your happiness.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
UPDATE: It appears the newsletter analysis that I linked to below was too hopeful for the authorities at Johns Hopkins, even though it was based on actual data. Mere minutes after I posted this they took it down, censoring this conclusion. Though I quoted a lot below, the article was much longer, included detailed graphs, and was thoughtful and thorough.
Positive news like this however must not be published. It must be squelched and silenced. We must live in fear, even if the thing we fear does not exist.
One of my readers below however found it on the Wayback Machine, here.
I have also embedded below the fold the webinar where the information censored was discussed in detail. In case Johns Hopkins or Youtube decides to censor this webinar also, another one of my readers below has downloaded it and made it available here. (It is very sad that a university now considers Orwell’s 1984 to be an instruction manual instead of a warning.)
Another reader has uploaded the file to Rumble, so I have embedded that video below as well.
Furthermore, another reader has provided me a high quality pdf of the original post, which I have uploaded and you can download here.
Original post:
——————————
A new analysis of the 2020 death statistics in the United States has revealed that despite the panic over COVID-19, the total number of deaths in all age groups — including the elderly — showed no change before or after the arrival of the virus.
This bears repeating, in bold and italics: There have been no excess deaths in 2020.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same. “The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.
Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
And yet, there have been so many COVID-19 deaths! How can the total number of deaths not be higher? The researcher looked more closely, and discovered (surprise! surprise!) that there was an unreasonable drop in other causes, matching exactly the increase in coronavirus deaths.
When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, … the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19. [emphasis mine]
In other words, COVID-19 is just another type of flu-like respiratory disease, that is only appearing terrible because doctors and hospitals are incorrectly labeling many deaths as COVID-19 when in past years they would have labeled them based on the existing chronic illnesses the patient already had.
It has all been a scam, a Chicken Little scam induced by some very evil people in government to cause fear and panic in the general population. I leave it to my readers to figure out why.
Regardless, it is time for people to come to their senses. Let the worry warts cower in mindless fear in their basements. Rip off that mask, go back to living your normal American life, free and open, pursuing your happiness.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
I was not able to locate your link above. Not so much a surprise. There is no way that information such as this will see the light of day before the Georgia run-off elections.
I’ve pulled stats from the CDC and do not find the same – I do indeed see the increase starting in March. I’m not at all saying the numbers don’t add up – frankly I’ve not had time to investigate why, for example, CDC stats for 2009 show ZERO H1N1 deaths.. Additionally, the year over year stats for 2017-2019 and 2020 show an increase in the death rate from .86% of the population to .965% – a10.4% increase. I realize these numbers don’t give the entire picture – but they were consistent with media claims, more or less – and not with claims I was expecting to substantiate. As another commenter noted, the link you offer is dead, so your case doesn’t look good..
This article appears to have been taken off the Johns Hopkins site. It’s still available from the Wayback Machine thanks to Internet Archive:
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
This story was prominent in my Google News feed, so it’s been trending. But apparently someone at Johns Hopkins took it down, sometime between 22:31:19 and 23:18:39 UTC 26 November 2020.
Steve-
excellent detective work.
Here is a link to the webinar cited in paragraph 1 of the JHU newsletter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TKJN61aflI
More censorship. Please tell us what specifically was incorrect in the story, not that it spread false information. This is not responsible anything if details of the “false” info is not given. From the site’s Twitter feed:
“JHU News-Letter
@JHUNewsLetter
Replying to
@JHUNewsLetter
Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic. We regret that this article may have contributed to the spread of misinformation about COVID-19.
5:13 PM · Nov 26, 2020·Twitter for iPhone”
on the upside…..
Chocolate Rations Increased to 25gms
https://youtu.be/ciD6G_bT1Ps
0:08
wayne: Can you grab the youtube webinar file that NavyNuke found? You know how to do it, and I fear they will take it down also. Once you have it we need to arrange to post it here.
If you don’t want to install anything or use some 1337 h4X0r tricks, just copy & paste the YouTube link into an online service like this:
https://www.clipconverter.cc/
Mr. Z.,
Downloading the file right now.
It’s about 100Mb’s at 360p, and 28Mb’s at 240p. (only about 13Mb’s at 144p, but you can’t read the slides at that resolution.)
–In about 2 minutes, I’ll upload this file to the Internet Archive (Community Video section) to park it for you, and post a link when it’s done processing.
[highly recommend everyone acquire “Internet Download Manager” (or a similar program)– allows you to download entire Youtube video-files, and without inserted adverts. You can test a full-version, for a month, for free.]
wayne: Thank you. Another local friend also downloaded and provided me the file, at a resolution that is readable.
I will upload it to Behind the Black so that it is available even when Johns Hopkins decides to put the original in the memory hole. (It is very sad that a university now considers Orwell’s 1984 a instruction manual rather and a warning.)
ah, here we go….
https://archive.org/details/covid-19-deaths-a-look-at-u.-s.-data
It’s still being “processed” but this link should work.
If anyone wants to download it, just go to the ‘download options’ box in the right-hand column and right-click & ‘save-as’ on “mpeg4”
Mr. Z.,
Good deal!
Does it get to be a bit pricey, to serve-up 100Mb files, from your own site?
Christopher Hitchens
“Why Orwell Matters”
The Commonwealth Club.
https://youtu.be/rY5Ste5xRAA
1:33:18
Wayne: Looked at your link. I think I will simply provide a link to this. Simpler, and serves the purpose.
Thank you, as always!
Mr. Z.,
–this might help you, just scroll down to the “Video embedding” section, under “setup a video player that serves an item from archive.org on another site.”
Archive Video help, tips, and techniques
https://archive.org/help/video.php
It has all been a scam, a Chicken Little scam …
Reading these words … one more reason to give thanks for this site for sanity. There is a God.
Thank you, Robert.
At our table tonight, a heavy equipment operator — those great big cranes where the driver is up several stories high — told us how he refused point blank when the OSHA inspector insisted that he wear his mask. Through the mask, the words were fuzzy — he couldn’t talk to the guys on the ground and they couldn’t talk to him, the masks were endangering lives. Literally, as accidents in that business leave very little room for error without serious physical consequences. You had better know those guys are ticked.
People are seething with anger. Seething. I predict that by the end of this cycle, this major thing we’re going through, this civil war, the folks who really wanted the masks “back then” (now) are going to be about as plentiful as those we know now who have been laid flat by this deadly pandemic virus that has killed so many people, I mean almost 5,000 people in China for crying out loud (1.38 billion, replaced in an hour and 40 minutes). I.E., people will conveniently forget how pro-mask they were and will claim, “I never believed it!” And those of us who remember will roll our eyes and say, “Yeah. Right.”
Nothing new under the sun. Separation of state always from: church, medicine, science. Interference in our lives via government based on religion was prohibited from the start. Now we must see that the state, our limited government state the Founders saw, must also remain separate from governance based on beliefs of doctors and scientists, the same premise. Live and let live in civilized liberty (we have laws against assault, murder, fraud, kidnapping, etc.), be responsible for yourself and yours and if you’re Christian, you will take care of those less fortunate.
Works when tried.
https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-only-1-8th-of-coronavirus-infections-caught
So, approximately 103 million have contracted Covid in the US with 264,000 deaths..many in poor health and over 80 y.o…. many died because of their underlying morbidity.
Gary – To bear out what you just wrote, I was hospitalized this past month and the hospital suggested I come in for physical therapy twice a week after being discharged. I brought up the subject to my doctor during my follow up visit and his response was not only no, but blankity blank no! The last place someone with my age and underlying problems should be is anywhere near a hospital and possible exposure to the Wuhan virus.. His advice, stay away unless you have an urgent situation
As someone technology challenged is the away to share the like on fb since John hopkin memory holed it. Or how do you send it in an email.
I pulled the CDC death statistics myself just a few weeks ago. Just like Flying Ashtray commented, I see an increase starting to in March and climbing about 10%, which roughly correlates to the approximately 250,000 number the media is giving us.
I don’t think the Wuhan Flu is anything to panic over, but I don’t see how publishing blatantly fake news helps our cause any. And then crying 1984 when said fake news is refuted.
Pretty simple explanation really-FOLLOW the MONEY!
Damn, I hoped that the tennis ball “distancing” would work. (But not much).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF3E_sMUd1Q
When people worked on farms or in factories, geographic location was of importance. Not so much with many jobs today. We need to conceptualize secession as those who use, or at least want to use, their own brains, seceding from those who prefer to live like stupid slaves.
There is a possible more innocent explanation than that deaths are being artificially recorded as Covid.
May I posit that people already at death’s door will be pushed through it by the first infection they catch. This year it has in many cases been Covid, leaving fewer to be pushed through by other things.
That would imply that Covid shortens life by only a few weeks.
Ivor Cummings is saying the same thing about European deaths on his YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/J3vDsKEOIQI
He’s also pointing out 20 scientific papers showing lockdowns don’t work and are damaging, why Sweden’s death rate is higher than Denmark and Norway, and why Japan’s elderly are resisting the Wuhan Flu better than in other countries (higher Vitamin D levels).
LocalFluff–
weirdly humorous!
Quick Factoids on Nassau County, NY:
-population 1.5 million
– median age = 41 years
– median household income = $116K/year (National median household income = $$40K)
– median property value = $517K
Local Fluff: I cannot discern from that short video whether or not it is a spoof!
“We need to conceptualize secession as those who use, or at least want to use, their own brains, seceding from those who prefer to live like stupid slaves.”
Very well put.
I have successfully put C19 believers on defense by observing that those who choose fear are free to do so, but I choose to live my life with courage. I am willing to be hugged by anyone who feels so affectionately inclined. I am willing to have strangers stand next to me with their faces fully exposed. “I choose to live courageously.” I say those words and I have now several times seen lefties blink with confusion, and then shift to the weaker position: defense.
Amazingly, doctors and politicians have convinced entitlement-minded media consumers, who think they deserve “fair and balanced” truth spoon-fed, that hugging and gathering closely is living dangerously, and assume offense position by shrieking that such high risk behavior endangers innocents and therefore one is selfish for refusing to comply. Live in fear, they counsel, it’s the only responsible way to live, they shout.
Throughout this truth remains: “A life lived in fear is a life half-lived.”
I have done a deep dive into the CDC data every month since April and I completely agree with the conclusion that PERCENTAGES of death by age group is the same for all causes and covid deaths. In other words, more old people die of covid-19 because more old people die normally. If an age group has a 10% of deaths in a normal year, then they will have a 10% of the covid-19 deaths.
HOWEVER, I completely DISAGREE that there have not been excess deaths over the time period discussed. It’s obvious there has been in the graphs you show. Moreover, the CDC calculated “excess death” count is consistent with covid-19 death count.
The question I have is that since covid-19 targets “death”, are we going to see NEGATIVE “excess deaths” in the future? At least when we look at deaths over a two year period we may find the “excess deaths”, while still positive, are much less than the covid-19 listed deaths, i.e. deaths were “pulled forward”. Clearing out the sickest and weakest in nursing homes should mean that there will be a dip in near-term deaths in nursing homes. SO much we still don’t know.
The original article has indeed been scrubbed from the JH website. According to their Twitter, it was because they thought the article was leading to the spread of dangerous ‘misinformation’ – not because it was inaccurate. It is frightening when a storied academic institution like John’s Hopkins censors it’s science because it conflicts with the political message of the day. The truth is the truth and should be pursued aggressively regardless of how it impacts people’s preconceived notions, political agendas, or sensitivities.
We seem to be back to the age old question….
When a tree falls in a lonely forest, and no animal is near by to hear it, does it make a sound?
I agree with those who question the author’s data source. The only CDC data I can find seems to document the existence of excess deaths. She does not explain this.
However, the author appears to not be referencing the summed data of all deaths in her commentary. She is referencing the “death by cause” data—–which is more precise—presumably—than the “summed” deaths. However, I cannot find these on the CDC site. I assume she is not making it up as her numbers are very specific.
But imagine if the “death by cause” data does not sum to the “summed data”. CDC would need to explain this. It is prima facie evidence they are manipulating the data—there may be good reason—but CDC never raises the issue. Further, I wish the author referenced the more precise “death by cause data”. The Hopkins student press seems to not have picke up on this either.
@janyuary
“I have successfully put C19 believers on defense by observing that those who choose fear are free to do so, but I choose to live my life with courage.”
I also like to live dangerously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkzMA1jrm00
(This is Wayne style stuff)
This whole circus is so ridiculous that I don’t know how to comment it seriously anymore. I hold my applauds in the tent until the elephant of reality treads down the horrible clown of fantasy.
There are very easy ways to measure excess deaths, the author is using statistics in a roundabout way to prove a preconception. The specific cause of death data as far as I can see is unsourced, and given that death certificates often list multiple related causes of natural deaths, I’m not sure how those numbers stack up.
” given that death certificates often list multiple related causes of natural deaths, I’m not sure how those numbers stack up.”
Isn’t that the point the author is trying to make – that the CDCs practice of classifying “all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths” is potentially misleading? If only by skewing data on all other causes of death…
Since this Covid thing started the CDC suspended gathering data on flu deaths.
They are not setting aside those numbers and counting them later. They are instead counted as something else. What?
Pat posited that “people already at death’s door will be pushed through it by the first infection they catch. This year it has in many cases been Covid, leaving fewer to be pushed through by other things.”
This sounds true, but many have been noticing that pneumonia and other flus do the same thing, but far fewer of these are being blamed and Wuhan seems to be taking up the difference. Few of us believe that pneumonia and other flus have slunk away, this year. With the tremendous financial incentive to blame Wuhan for everything from flu to car crash deaths, many of us believe that Wuhan is overstated.
Many of us are also appalled that several governors sent or even allowed Wuhan ailing patients into nursing homes (against the will of most of these places), where there are great concentrations of the most vulnerable. What an outrageous thing for them to do. These people, their families, and the taxpayers expect much better from these places. Great amounts of money is spent in order to keep these people alive for the few weeks or months that they lost due to actively and intentionally exposing them to yet another source of death. We expect better from our governors and our nursing homes.
The fourth graph in this essay shows CDC numbers of total U.S. deaths being greater than we might have expected in a normal year (US Weekly All-Cause, Flu+Pneumonia, COVID Deaths)
https://wmbriggs.com/post/33626/
The all-cause minus COVID deaths, the black dashed line, shows more deaths than we might have expected in a normal summer. He had to estimate Flu+Pneumonia, deaths, the blue dashed line. The black dashed line seems to indicate that there was a tremendous amount of collateral damage due to those whose healthcare was delayed due to the atrocious reaction to Wuhan, people who feared going for medical attention due to Wuhan, people who chose death over the isolation or other consequences to our fearful leaders’s reaction to Wuhan, and other causes unique to this year’s Wuhan panic-demic.
What a cluster bleep.
Lockdowns guarantee an increase in illness in the general population. How many people are being deprived of their normal fitness routine? Gyms are often the only places one can get the kind of physical “burn” one needs to maintain a certain level of fitness. Alternatives like walking or dancing-in-place in a room in your house to music, are very much limited in their return (and a lot harder on knees and ankles) compared to, say, swimming three to five miles a week.
Plain misery in poor physical and stressed mental health is the product of lockdown selfishness — selfishness that says “I’m scared so I insist on imposing my fear on you so you pay the price, business owner, private citizen, gym patron, theater lover, musician, waitress or waiter, special events crews and vendors ..” and on and on …
It is mind bogglingly selfish for fearful people to make others who would rather be courageous, sacrifice their own health and livelihoods to accommodate others’ purely belief-based fear. These studies and numbers and statistics are only about seeking justification and depend on who one believes. Justification applied to homicidal tyranny is beside the point, but selfish fearful folks insist on one-size-fits-all “justified” authority, when morally they should stay home and order out, wear masks and avoid people, and be responsible for their own fear and their own health.
Sounds like the right move.
“Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.
Briand also claimed in her analysis that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may be incorrectly categorized as COVID-19-related deaths. However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.”
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-student-newspaper-deletes-then-retracts-article-on-faculty-members-presentation-about-covid-19-deaths/
Jeff Fauva: If you are truly following the scientific method, you don’t censor and remove a piece of research, suddenly, without explanation, as Johns Hopkins did. You outline publicly where the researcher got things wrong. Johns Hopkins did not do this.
Furthermore, much of what you write here is opinion, subject to debate. Silencing Briand and putting here work in Orwell’s memory hole does not allow for debate. It is fascist, and the very opposite of what civilized people do.
I am certain that if enough experts with a lot of letters after their names, in any field — medicine, physics, science — got the handful of domineering mainstream news organizations to report that the sky had turned green but that you had better not look directly at it because it would hurt your eyes …
1. Many credible studies would start popping up to prove it and to scorn skeptics, and (as I have literally seen on other forums) we would see intelligent people wasting many long hours solving and debating an entirely imaginary problem
2. There would be a lot of hostility and anger at people who believe their own lyin’ eyes.
I have lived through many pandemics. I know what one looks like. This ain’t one. I will believe my lyin’ eyes before I believe doctors and/or politicians.
Jeff Fauva, what nonsense, that’s just a quote from the embarrassingly stupid or disingenuous “retraction” posted by the Johns Hopkins student newsletter.
“According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.”– this is simply a lie and is referenced back to the CDC total death count, which incidentally is not “almost 300,000”, so they managed to lie two times with a single statement.
Ourworldindata.org, which is the other reference source used in the retraction has been a Covid19 hysteria monger popular with Big Tech and Globalist Corps. A first clue is that they intentionally display their death graphs in a zoomed in fashion to make them look dramatic (literally a common technique of propaganda). The source for Ourworldindata.org death counts is not the CDC, btw, (another red flag) though the CDC was the source Professor Briand used in her analysis.
The “retraction” does not address any specific data or analysis in Briand’s talk or in their own published note that summarized it, as evidently they were unable to do so.
CORRECTED VERSION:
Jeff Fauva, what nonsense, that’s just a quote from the embarrassingly stupid or disingenuous “retraction” posted by the Johns Hopkins student newsletter.
“According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.”– this is simply a lie and is referenced back to the CDC Covid19 death count, which incidentally is not “almost 300,000”, so they managed to lie two times with a single statement.
Ourworldindata.org, which is the other reference source used in the retraction has been a Covid19 hysteria monger popular with Big Tech and Globalist Corps. A first clue is that they intentionally display their death graphs in a zoomed in fashion to make them look dramatic (literally a common technique of propaganda). The source for Ourworldindata.org death counts is not the CDC, btw, (another red flag) though the CDC was the source Professor Briand used in her analysis.
The “retraction” does not address any specific data or analysis in Briand’s talk or in their own published note that summarized it, as evidently they were unable to do so.
TruthSeeker: You double posted this. I cannot find any changes but that’s beside the point. Your comment went into moderation because you haven’t posted here before. The rules box above the Reply box makes it clear. Please, if you are new here please be patient. I will get to it.
“Messaging Liberty With Courage”
Dave Smith / Robbie Bernstein
Part Of The Problem episode #665
November 27, 2020
https://youtu.be/Bpx6qk_VVEw
55:04
I would expect a dramatic decline in flu and pneumonia incidence. My friends in Australia say the flu season skipped a year. The last weekly stats I saw from the CDC showed flu at about half its normal levels. The only thing that seems certain is that covid is making fools of a great many smart people.
Robert Zimmerman:
The original retracted article was also in the Johns Hopkins student newspaper, written by a student. Why is it embarrassing for the same publication to retract and print their rationale? Johns Hopkins tells us 300k – you tell us it’s not. Why should I believe you over the top public health school in the world? Keep in mind – there are 265k confirmed Covid deaths. 300k is Covid-related mortality, that is to say were it not for Covid, 300k people would likely have survived. Thanks for the reply.
Jeff, I have an honest, plain question, based on the observation that past flu seasons have always involved many people getting “a bug” at varying degrees of intensity, and some bugs were worse than others, year to year. If Covid is killing so many people, where on earth are those, and they must be legion mathematically, whose butts are being kicked by this? First-hand I know zero, second hand through friends and relatives I know of a handful who report mostly “average bug” flu to zip. One relative’s cousin, in his early 80s and in rather poor health, had his butt walloped by Covid, but now he’s fine.
My question –how much first hand knowledge do you have of people whose butts have been kicked in this pandemic? Second hand, etc?
And one thing is for certain, that by closing gyms, it will have significantly lowered the fitness health of a large portion of the population, making them more vulnerable to all viruses. Poor health mentally and physically is the outcome of lockdown. All based solely on who one believes. Me, if my lyin’ eyes conflict with what doctors and government are telling me … I’ll believe my lyin’ eyes.
When does eating outside during the Covid virus event become just like eating inside?
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jgqpn7/when-does-outdoor-dining-become-indoor-dining-we-asked-experts
What is it that, Forest Gump says, “Stupid is as stupid does”.
Jeff Fauva quoted the retraction above (Nov 28 at 7:06am) to which Mr. Zimmerman replied.
I still don’t understand the distinction being made in the retraction between Briand’s statement that “total death numbers are not above normal death numbers” and the JH retraction which says her “claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years.” Are they using different numbers? It seems hard to believe that Briand’s claim, the primary support for her thesis, is simply “incorrect”. Did she use different data? It seems like she took into account the spike, etc.
And while the comments below the retraction are interesting, the single mention of the data source (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate) doesn’t exactly verify the numbers presented there either. Is the retraction disingenuous, or did Briand get the numbers wrong? I just can’t find the exact data, which would seem necessary to prove the point.
The US death rate is about 2,850,000 per year plus about 10% for our increasing rate of elderly citizens. 3,135,000 estimated for 2020.
If you add the 270,000 covid deaths, possibly 300.000 by the end of the year, we should have almost 3,435,000 dead for the year.
If we pass 3,135,000 deaths by January then the difference will be excess deaths.
But what if we have a drop in expected deaths next year? By the same number as this years excess deaths?
Would you count this years excess as nothing more than accelerated deaths?
The number of deaths during this flu season are consistent with past flu seasons. The pandemic is a “fake media driven propaganda” to instill fear. People who are afraid will do and obey orders given to increase their odds of survival. Even if the monster they’re afraid of is not real.
(The emperor has no clothes, the sky still is not falling, and the boy who cried Wolf is on his own now)
We have been distracted, sheltering in place and ordering all our necessities over the Internet…
Money is quickly becoming obsolete, physical coins for change has been removed from the population. banking services that were once free have a charge now, interest rates on savings is near zero, many of our local shops and stores restaurants and theaters are permanently closed.
Normal healthcare is in limited supply, parks and recreation is for bidden, just as the first amendment is for bidden. Governors are issuing commands like dictators and reluctant police needing to keep their jobs, are doing what is asked of them, even though they know it’s unlawful and unethical against people who’ve done no wrong.
Businesses and entire states are shutting down there economy, telling people to be patient, the check is in the mail, and that we’re so sorry you are losing everything you worked for your entire life.
You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs, this is the great Global reset…
All we need now is a savior to come to save us all… Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates are riding to the rescue with a never before seen flu shot that is experimental, without animal trials or clinical trials and long-term effects evaluated. The CDC will not authorize its use, but it’s on the fast track!!! They can bypass protocols in an never ending emergency. (it’s for the children…)
Here is a short NPR biased view of the new flu shots. See if you can pick out the inaccuracies and the half truth and ask yourself, do I trust this product?
https://the1a.org/segments/mrna-vaccine-moderna-pfizer/
It gives an accurate picture that’s scary, of the never before seen method of M RNA modified with crisper technology. The best to be hope for is that your body can repair it self faster than any damage done. The worst is long term effects of modifying your RNA and the RNA / DNA of bacteria in your body recombining random fashion that long term effects result in cancer, nodules, unusual growth, autoimmune issues from foreign material growing in your body that can’t be stopped.
This has the capabilities of being far worse than the experimentation done during the first gulf war that resulted in 20,000 soldiers dead from various causes. Look up “Gulf War syndrome”.
Even a comparison study done with the available vaccines by an independent country has found the Russian vaccine worked the best with the least amount of side effects… which it had plenty of.
When Nancy Pelosi told us that if we wanted to read the new healthcare bill, we must pass it first… without knowing what was in it, that something bad was about to happen.
I am having that feeling all over again as they plan to give all the healthcare workers this mandatory shot with experimental technology that changes RNA on a random basis… I have a very bad feeling about this.
The excess deaths are observable from the data.
https://ricochet.com/834997/covid-deaths-are-real-rebutting-dr-briand/
Excellent link Matt, thanks.
Max — very complex problem. As one of America’s greatest optimists and presidents once advised, the smart way to go about it is to employ simple solutions for complex problems. “They are not easy solutions, but they are simple,” he noted.
The simple solution: separation of medicine and science from state, the same as the Founders (all professing Christians) were sure to separate church from state. Facts may define the scientific method, but beliefs drive scientists and doctors the same as they drive clergymen. All three can and will be tyrants, allowing their beliefs to steamroll individual rights “for the good of all” given government authority.
When science and medicine are carefully segregated from authority of state, then all men and women will retain their right to self-ownership whether it is in their own personal health or such basics as producing their own food and energy.
Lest it dissapear altogether I used a browser trick most may not know of. You can go to the file menu and save the entire web page locally. You don’t have to depend on “The Cloud” to keep things.
Andrew M Winter–
-excellent obscure trick– in Windows it’s right-click, “save as,” [save-as type] “web-page complete.”
What browser do you use?
janyuary:
–I’m all-in on the Separation of Medicine and State.
The huge problem however— they have been at it for a 100+ years.
Portland is a good example of what-went-wrong, on steroids….
https://www.ohsu.edu/historical-collections-archives/public-health-progressive-era
janyuary: Thanks for the reply. There are 20 million college students in the US. I don’t know any of them, therefore colleges are not real. Are you a fellow college denier?
Robert Zimmerman: Do you owe your readers a clarification? The Hopkins publication didn’t “Orwell” the findings – the student publication fully explained the reasons the article was taken down. Moreover, the findings were not scientific to begin with – this was a student reporting on a presentation from a Hopkins staff member who is not an expert in virology or public health. The presentation was not published in a scientific journal, nor peer reviewed. Many of your own readers have ably point-out the flaws in the analysis. (Flying Ashtrays, Matt, Blue Crab, B’radical..)
‘Ricochet’ is a pay to publish website. Anyone can pay 5 bucks and get anything published.
The CDC has never published data on a month to month basis and stood behind it.
They have always admitted that it takes sometimes more than a year to confirm and collate any and all of their data.
Why are people and especially the CDC now posting supposedly finalized numbers this year?
And why are people projecting the future from these fudged numbers?
When this whole thing started Dr. Fauci predicted millions would die in the first year. Are we now going to use that prediction to claim that masks saved over half a million people?
They can not even confirm exactly how many people have died this year, let alone why each one died.
Jeff, you failed to answer an easy, straightforward honest question, which is telling.
Instead you asked another question and here is my answer: Having taken quite a long time to get a bachelor’s degree (loved the social life too much), I went to enough universities long enough to find it perfectly reasonable, perfectly believable, when I hear there are 20 million college students, etc.
I also believe in such things as a million dollars, though I have never seen them. I like to think I have what is called common sense. I suspect it is in very short supply among lots of folks who fail to note the forest because they’re so invested in a tiny group of trees.
janyuary: Thanks for the reply. My neighbor died of Covid and my brother got it months ago. My larger point is that this is anecdotal and has no bearing on the discussion at hand.
pzatchok-
The pay-to-publish rumor is a bit over the top, although subscribers can get their posts published. Founded 2010 by Rob Long (executive producer of Cheers) and Peter Robinson (x speechwriter for Reagan and Bush the Elder)
That being said–contains a lot of National Review content and probably 1/2 of it is never-trumper stuff.
Personally, I listen to the Richard Epstein and Andrew Klavan podcasts.
wayne
It is NOT a rumor. Nor is it over the top.
What does this page say about publishing your own content?
https://ricochet.com/membership/
To publish your own content (like Mr.Z. does on this site) costs just 5 dollars a month or 55 bucks a year. The Collage plan.
What is even worse is the owners reserve the right to block and edit any of your published content for any reason they see fit.
Do you want me to go after the author of the article as well?
Referencing anything from Ricochet.com is worse than using Wiki as a reference in a collage paper.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT COVID / VITAMIN D3 AND ZINC
Dr. John Campbell reviewing recent studies related to the taking of vitamin D3 in relation to Covid 19 :
https://youtu.be/7H2c0Zm6PFw
I believe there is an indication that taking zinc also helps in dealing with Covid 19 and Dr. Campbell also reviews other information on it:
https://youtu.be/aIvRR_y5i-k
I as a coincidence have been taking every day 4000 iu of vitamin D3, I also take one vitamin K to help facilitate the D3, plus one zinc / magnesium / calcium tablet every other day for more than 10 years now because my previous investigations indicated that the D3 primarily is a good and study proven supplement for men specifically to take related to keeping healthy. And I am.
(“Vitamin K is important in making sure that the calcium you get from foods or supplements is used in your bones. Vitamin D and vitamin K work together to strengthen your bones and to help them develop properly.”)
Now as you may or may not know, I am not a doctor, and I am not suggesting that you do or take anything, but these recent studies do appear to have positive indicators related to helping to deal with Covid 19 should you find yourself exposed. So please use your own judgement and consult your own doctor before you take any actions. But this information transmitted by Dr. Campbell does appear to be significant information, worth your time watching.
And I like Dr. Campbells observation that NONE of these simple and apparently effective supplements in mitigating the effects of Covid are identified or promoted in the Main Stream Media. And that would be for an obvious reason to my thinking, they are cheap as he observes, and the big pharma advertisers that are developing the high end Covid therapies frown upon the informing of the public regarding these inexpensive therapies. Just my take, too cynical for you? If it walks like a duck.
(Thats is what I am assuming that the doctor wants to say but is not saying. But that again is my assumption)
Be healthy and stay healthy.
Jeff, the idea of dismissing anecdotal evidence as not worth noting, will always be a big mistake but the “scientific method” is wrongly applied.
Judging how to go about things based on anecdotal evidence is how most animals, including humans, survive. We also survive by passing judgment, we survive by respecting fear and facing it.
The trick is to pass judgement on others to the same standards one holds for oneself, and to respect the judgments of others. Hypocrites judge others harshly for things they do themselves, and that’s where the trouble steps in.
Today’s morality leads to death: we are told not to judge, and we are told even by Star Wars’ wise idiot Yoda that “fear is the path to the dark side.” Which is a lie. Fear is a survival mechanism.
Slavery, cruelty, abuse, lead to anger, and slaves come to hate their cruel masters. Today’s morality blames anger on fear, which is wrong.
Hate has zip to do with any of it. The use, the mis use, the over use, of the word “hate” in politics today is the biggest warning sign of all. A child who is told “No” by his mother, will angrily reply “Mommy, you hate me!”
We should demand deeper analysis from American adults who presume to vote.
actually, the data shows that raw deaths are up this year and its in line with the number of reported covid deaths. also, the excess deaths weekly match the covid test / case / hospitalization / death trends perfectly. also, the u.s. trends and world trends are in lockstep. now, with the “data” presented as part of the article in question, % deaths rather than raw deaths was used. it takes quite a bit to “move” a percentage. and the actual fact remains that the raw all cause death count in the u.s. is up, and its up by the reported covid deaths.
further, the data here is looking at just a few weeks in april, not all year. and the graphs used when referencing heart disease deaths DO NOT INCLUDE THE HEART DATA. look closely. if you go find the heart data, you will see that 2020 is following the same trend it always has for heart deaths, both in raw number and in “seasonality”.
the real facts point to a very clear and indisputable rise in overall raw deaths coinciding very closely with the covid test and case and hospitalization trends. and there are also no anomalies in any other death category to suggest a misrepresentaton of the cause of death amongst covid reported deaths.
I like how everyone is using the CDC’s numbers to support the CDC’s claims.
Any outside data?
janyuary:
Appreciate the lengthy reply. I think we are losing sight of the discussion – no excess deaths from Covid. Clearly a macro issue, not a personal one, therefore anecdotal evidence is irrelevant.
Mr. Zimmerman appears to have no intention of correcting this post, despite over 2k covid deaths per day. Truly Orwellian.
As I scoured the Johns Hopkins site for the article, I noticed a headline lower down the page “DoD gives JH $30 million grant to study Covid deaths”. Case closed.
joey: Now do all of the other countries in the world that are showing excess deaths from Covid. They all getting study grants too?
Not all Trump supporters are Covid deniers.
However, all Covid deniers are Trump supporters.
Discuss.
Jeff Fauva, you are wrong on pretty much every count. I know way too many Trump supporters who think they wisely err on the side of caution, rather than being accessories to economic and societal homicide by wearing masks, and I know a sizeable number of lefties who think the masks are stupid and dangerous.
I am what weak-minded sheep call a “denier” and I think Trump is a very bad joke. I can easily think of a dozen people off the top of my head, personal first-hand knowledge, of what you call “deniers” who also think Trump is as bad as Biden.
You, Jeff, appear to engage wholesale in template thinking, where if a truth doesn’t fit the template, the truth will be altered or partially dismantled to fit the template.
Bullies love to impose their view on others, and when those others object they call them “deniers.”
They come in all colors, all ages, and belong to all political parties.
Jeff Fauva — “losing sight of the discussion,” no, I am keeping it in focus. Those who want to impose their fear and want to force me to accept numbers, and as authorities people I think are inept, are the topic, and my reasons for thinking this way are well founded; those who believe in Corona believe solely what they are being told.
We “deniers” think what we think based on hard evidence of what we observe, experience, and analyze. Those who believe in Corona think what they think solely because they trust people who are liars and/or have vested interest financially or professionally on “proving” that they are smart enough boss stupider people around.
It really is that simple, Jeff, and it IS the conversation ultimately.
I asked why it is that I know ZERO people who’ve been made ill from this except for three people who got mildly sick from Covid, yet YOU claim that record numbers of people are dying, which necessarily means that three times more at least would be getting very ill then better.
Where are they? They were always plentiful in my circles during every pandemic I experienced in my 62 years, and living in dense population dealing directly with public, as well as living in a busy port town, I was exposed a lot. You mentioned two people you knew personally, death and illness, to the Covid. How old were they? Were either of them vegans (a diet guaranteed to reduce general health, it is straightforward chemistry)? Were either of them heavy drinkers or smokers? Did they invest effort in a fitness routine? Did either of them have already-existing conditions rendering them vulnerable to any virus?
Have your opinion, your fears, your authorities, Jeff Fauva, but STOP IMPOSING THEM ON OTHERS WHO OBJECT.
That is really the discussion, the forest being ignored for all those trees.
janyuary: Thanks for you thoughtful responses. I’ve never been in a car accident. Folks who tell me to obey traffic laws are just trying to control me through fear so I drive 80 without a seatbelt. I’d look so stupid wearing a seatbelt!
I’m engaging in a bit of hyperbole, but I think it’s true that overwhelmingly covid deniers are Trump supporters in the US. The reason is that if one acknowledges that the virus is a serious issue, one then cannot square Trump’s handling and statements with that reality. Stay safe.
Hans Hermann Hoppe
“Indicators of a degenerating society”
Property and Freedom Society 2015
https://youtu.be/8xZe8zR14bE
10:11
Jeff Fauva, your posts continue to conform that all you have is your belief, that you are being told the truth by people who really care about you and are so much smarter than all of us that I, we, should sacrifice our normal lives and live in lockdown for our own good. Jeff, you prove again and again and again here that Covid Believers are very much like religious zealots righteously forcing their beliefs on others, even if it means killing them.
janyuary: There is a vaccine on the way. All you have to do is stay safe for a few more months. Please be well.
Jeff Fauva — Believe in the Bogey Man if you want and believe in the spell (the vaccine) that will get rid of him — but you are WRONG to a) confuse beliefs with facts and b) force you beliefs on anyone.
You refuse to even admit the difference between a belief and a fact. You are fuzzy on what constitutes “fact.” You mistake the “data,” number crunching, and political pronouncements as “fact,” when the actual fact is that your news sources are reporting that “data” to you — that is the only “fact” in our possession. You apparently refuse to acknowledge that common sense is even worth consulting. I wish you would RESPECT the rights of other people to disagree. Instead, you want to FORCE your beliefs on me and pretend that your beliefs are “facts.”
It’s very, very sad.
Jeff Fauva,
You wrote: “janyuary: There is a vaccine on the way. All you have to do is stay safe for a few more months. Please be well.”
Oh, [insert your favorite curse word]! A few more months? This nine-month lockdown was only supposed to be for two weeks! (Three weeks in my county.) (In a week or so, we should start seeing our first Lockdown Babies.) We keep being assured that the end of the lockdown is near. Eventually we were assured that once there is a vaccine then the lockdown, shutdown, smackdown, Great Oppression will come to an end. We were doing it all to save just one life. When will that life finally be saved so that the rest of us can live again? What is the value of just one life? We are paying a tremendous cost to save it.
Now you tell us that with the vaccine we still have to wait many more months for the end of the Great Oppression. Hah! Enough of these lies. The Great Oppression is killing more people than the disease, and there are other terrible consequences that are far more harmful to us all than the loss of those lives from Wuhan. So far, we have directly spent several trillions of dollars that we don’t have to help recover from the consequences, and Congress is about to add another trillion to it. The indirect costs are an order of magnitude worse.
In the name of saving lives, governors around the country outrageously sent Wuhan-ailing patients into the midst of the most vulnerable (OUTRAGEOUS! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj3cJEeTYns#t=120 “Lawrence of Arabia,” 1/2 minute) but protected the least vulnerable, except we are now seeing that the protection has left those who are the least vulnerable to the disease very vulnerable to the protection. Isolation, depression, drugs, suicides, each of which destroys lives.
Now you try to be reassuring by telling us that we only have to suffer these consequences for a few more months, with more lost lives and livelihoods, lost healthcare, lost liberty, and lost hope? This has been a horrific cluster bleep, and you cheerfully want more.
It is too bad that Robert’s rules of orderly commenting forbid me to say just what I think of people who take such glee in the appalling carnage that the egregious Great Oppression leaves behind. Or rather, to say it in the way I want to say it.
All this talk of oppression – if folks could’ve taken small measures to beat-back the virus, we could be like this: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/rolling-coverage-victorians-wake-up-to-first-day-of-covidnormal-summer/news-story/393a3898317aa4f8d9dbab62d14773ab
They don’t look oppressed to me.
Jeff Fauva,
You wrote “They don’t look oppressed to me.”
It just goes to show that you have no idea what oppression is. You don’t recognize it when you see it. Or live in it. But, hey, go on thinking that you are smarter than us.
Edward: Are Australians oppressed? Do they live in a totalitarian society? What about kiwis?
I’m a bit late to the party, but…
In brief, one of Dr. Briand’s main conclusions, that Covid-19 has NOT increased the number of U.S. deaths, is directly contradicted by readily available CDC data. Therefore it is surprising that the newsletter has achieved such notoriety.
In the 2nd paragraph of Dr. Briand’s newsletter she states, “From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million”, without mentioning that the corresponding total for 2019 was 1.43 million. That’s almost a 20% increase. Significant, don’t you think?
All the more surprising, then, that the author concludes, “Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary.”
They found no evidence, evidently because they didn’t look very hard. No wonder the newsletter was retracted!
Deaths from all causes so far this year have *already* reached almost 3 million, compared with about 2.85 million for the whole of last year. And that’s with two weeks left in the year, plus the weeks-long lag in data reaching the CDC. Total deaths this year will likely reach about 3.2 million. Roughly a 12% increase on last year.
Data source: CDC
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6
See for yourself. Download (export) the above spreadsheet and sum ‘All Cause’ deaths for 2020 and Jurisdiction = United States. As of now, the total is 2,999,326.
You can also also confirm the numbers I gave above for mid-March to mid-September by summing weeks 12-38 for 2019 and 2020.
Note also the large increase in weekly deaths compared to 2019, beginning in week 13. For example, in week 15 (w/e 11th April), 78,998 Americans died this year vs. 55,636 last year. So much for Dr. Briand’s “Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.”
Believing anything coming from the CDC is just another nail in the coffin, that, that individual person is a high functioning moron.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/
huge-massive-cdc-fraud-uncovered-cdc-grossly-overcounting-active-china-coronavirus-cases-causing-states-keep-economies-closed-indefinitely/