Sunspot update: October activity drops almost to predicted levels
NOAA today posted its updated monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. As I do every month, I have posted this graph below, with several additional details to provide some larger context.
In October the sunspot count dropped so much from the activity in September that the total count was for the first time since the middle of 2021 actually very close to the predicted numbers first put forth by NOAA’s solar science panel in April 2020.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The actual count, 99.4, was inside the 2020 prediction’s margin of error, from 62.1 to 113.5 (and indicated by the grey curve), and only slightly higher than the prediction of 88.3 (indicated by the red curve). This drop now however strongly suggests that we have reached solar maximum several years early, confirming what had been suggested by the activity levels earlier in the year.
NOAA’s science panel confirmed that conclusion with the announcement on October 25, 2023 of a new revised prediction for this solar maximum.
[S]olar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019 [released in 2020]. The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173.
This revised prediction is more in line with the outlier prediction of a handful of dissenting solar scientists, who disagreed with the 2020 prediction of a weak maximum, and instead foretold the next maximum would be very high.
Those same dissenting scientists however pulled back from their own prediction in April 2023, saying the maximum would not be as powerful as they had originally predicted, but still more powerful than the prediction of the NOAA panel.
Do you see a pattern? To me, it appears that none of these scientists really have any idea what is going to happen. They throw darts at a wall, based on the limited data they have and what has happened in the past, but then as time passes they move closer and closer to the wall to make their revised predictions easier to get right, while also making believe their new guesses are more accurate.
Their problem is that they are making these predictions based solely on past behavior, not on any true understanding of the fundamental processes that cause the Sun’s sunspots.
Regardless, the main point remains: The Sun’s behavior during the last and this cycle have baffled scientists. It has not done what was expected, and the scientists really don’t know why.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
NOAA today posted its updated monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. As I do every month, I have posted this graph below, with several additional details to provide some larger context.
In October the sunspot count dropped so much from the activity in September that the total count was for the first time since the middle of 2021 actually very close to the predicted numbers first put forth by NOAA’s solar science panel in April 2020.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The actual count, 99.4, was inside the 2020 prediction’s margin of error, from 62.1 to 113.5 (and indicated by the grey curve), and only slightly higher than the prediction of 88.3 (indicated by the red curve). This drop now however strongly suggests that we have reached solar maximum several years early, confirming what had been suggested by the activity levels earlier in the year.
NOAA’s science panel confirmed that conclusion with the announcement on October 25, 2023 of a new revised prediction for this solar maximum.
[S]olar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019 [released in 2020]. The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173.
This revised prediction is more in line with the outlier prediction of a handful of dissenting solar scientists, who disagreed with the 2020 prediction of a weak maximum, and instead foretold the next maximum would be very high.
Those same dissenting scientists however pulled back from their own prediction in April 2023, saying the maximum would not be as powerful as they had originally predicted, but still more powerful than the prediction of the NOAA panel.
Do you see a pattern? To me, it appears that none of these scientists really have any idea what is going to happen. They throw darts at a wall, based on the limited data they have and what has happened in the past, but then as time passes they move closer and closer to the wall to make their revised predictions easier to get right, while also making believe their new guesses are more accurate.
Their problem is that they are making these predictions based solely on past behavior, not on any true understanding of the fundamental processes that cause the Sun’s sunspots.
Regardless, the main point remains: The Sun’s behavior during the last and this cycle have baffled scientists. It has not done what was expected, and the scientists really don’t know why.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
“They throw darts at a wall,”
If one goes on the assumption (which seems quite true) that things happen gradually, we could have predicted that this maximum would be slightly lower or higher than the previous one. Then, looking at how the sun ramped up, predicted a slightly stronger and earlier max.
Yup, there are no valid theories on sun spot activity mechanisms.
Mu biggest question at this point is; Will we get a double peaked maximum? Then; Will the second peak be greater than the first similar to the last cycle?
Nice to see the historical data where we see we are in a low point in maxima similar to the late 1800 to early 1900 and somewhat higher than the Dalton minimum.
Rumors of a premature reversing of sunspot polarity are set to rest. Current solar cycle continues.
https://www.arrl.org/news/reverse-polarity-sunspot-group-does-not-belong-to-cycle-25-observatory-says