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Update on coronavirus spread

Link here. As expected, the situation in China continues to be serious and somewhat out of control. The key data point however is this:

The number of confirmed infections across China has risen to 7,711, resulting in 170 deaths. By comparison, there were 5,327 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China during the 2002-2003 outbreak, although that virus was more deadly, claiming 349 lives.

In about a week the number of those infected has grown exponentially, far far faster than the previous SARS epidemic. In one week it just about passed SARS, which took a year to accumulate the same numbers.

At the same time, coronavirus still appears relatively mild, having produced half the deaths, about 2% of all those infected. This number however can easily rise, as the disease is still in its early stages for the majority of those infected.

So far the detected cases outside of China remain small, but they are also on the rise, including the first detected human-to-human transmission entirely within the U.S.

Once again, it is essential that no one panic over this virus. Its potential danger should also not be poo-pooed. Until we know more, it poses a threat that must be faced.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

7 comments

  • Lee S

    What worries me is the scale of action by governments around the world… Instead of spinning the outbreak as a new form of the flu, we have the Chinese building “pop up”hospitals capable of holding many 10s of thousands, the UK planning on putting all returning citizens into a 2 week quarantine at army bases, and cruise ships off the coast of Italy being refused entry .
    I don’t know if it’s a genuine reaction to a very dangerous plague, and we are being fed bull crap to avoid panic, if it’s an over reaction due to past failing, or even a practice run for “the real thing”…
    Whatever the RRAL story is, we are not privy to the details! :-/

  • Robert Pratt

    I give it one “poo” as opposed to the “poo poo.” There are tons of other virus outbreaks that are far worse that go unmentioned simply because they are not new or novel – the regular flu has tons of schools closed in Texas right now and I got it before Christmas.
    Yes, pay attention. Bird flu, SARS, and so many other such things have had folks all panicking over the years and were always over hyped. Let’s watch, wait and see. Then, if it has folks in hospitals all over we can worry.
    Our personal worry does absolutely nothing to find a cure or treatment and does nothing to stop it – it just induces other illness through stress.

  • talgus

    the solution always proposed is to stay home. this shuts down the industrial machine. to make money, most are in a just-in-time mode. We will soon find out what this means as China’s industry stays home.

  • sippin_bourbon

    WHO declares emergency.
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/coronavirus-live-updates-air-canada-announces-it-is-suspending-china-flights_3221125.html

    The issue is not how deadly it is, but how fast it spreads.
    Transmission during the incubation phase increases the chances, because you dont know your sick.

    The statements about fast mutation (tho I have not seen all the details), means that there is a “wild card” factor that could result is various strains that could thwart a cure.

    The folks are no longer quarantined on the cruise liner. The sick person was cleared and all were allowed to disembark.
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/cruise-passengers-held-over-coronavirus-scare-can-disembark_3222395.html

  • Chris

    Talgus
    (If memory serves)Per a recent John Batchelor episode the expected impact in China is 4% for the Provence and 1% GPD for China with an expected peak in the spring (April – May)
    This gets worse, and affects the global economy, as the virus remains uncontainable.

  • Brendan

    If this is true, then I’m not worried. Looks like the virus “mutated” to be preferential to Asian males.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

  • Max

    25% of the children in the local school district have the flu. After extensive flu shots given earlier in the year. (only one Child recently returned from China)
    My place of employment quit allowing flu shots to be given out free in our common room because so many people would come down with the flu that it would compromise production. Some never came back to work.

    The above article is very good, pointing out that China hasn’t ordered very many test kits to keep the number of confirmed cases low. There’s also other allegations of bodies being burned before they are counted or identified to prevent the death rate from being official.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304547
    Chinese nationals working in a lab in Canada were caught stealing samples of coronavirus and placing them in there socks to go through the airport.
    Biotech lab that handles these viruses for the Chinese military is located 20 miles from the infection zone. It has been cited for poor containment and hygiene practices. For example, when their incinerator was down they took the boxed infected items and threw them in the trash. People at the trash dump collected and resold much of the medical waste that have value, like the medical suits.

    A personal story called on the radio this morning of helping a young woman in Mongolia who is in trouble , the entire apartment complex was out of food. She called for permission to retrieve the money transferred to the bank to go get food. She was escorted by for four person guard to the bank then to a mostly empty grocery store. The city near the border of China is under quarantine. Starvation is already becoming a problem.
    A call to the local preparation centers who sell freeze dried food confirms that the orders are so high, that they are sold out for the near future. Most of the orders are from Southeast Asia.
    Local doctors are making medical supply runs at the local grocery stores and also picking up extra food.
    The world health organization, that sippin-bourbon posted, has determined this health crisis to be a level four pandemic, and yet it also says it forbids people from being biased and to keep the borders open. That is their order!

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