Capitalism in space: SpaceX has completed construction of its next Starship prototype and has moved it to its test stand in preparation for further tests.
This is the fourth prototype. If the tank pressure tests go well, they hope to add engines and do a twelve mile hop with this prototype, landing vertically. If not, they will try again with later prototypes. Regardless, the goal is to do that hop this year.
Are you enraged yet? Another 4.4 million applied for unemployment benefits this week, bringing the total of new unemployed since the Wuhan flu panic began in March to about 26 million, and raising the unemployment rate to about 16%.
Meanwhile, evidence continues to mount that the Wuhan flu is probably no more dangerous that the flu, thus making this entire government-imposed shutdown and resulting Great Wuhan Depression entirely uncalled for.
Worse, that any governor in any state is still refusing to end their lock downs at this point tells us that they goal was never to fight the epidemic, but to acquire unjustified power to rule us like dictators. If the voters don’t fire these people wholesale come November than the voters deserve the hell they are about to get.
Are you enraged yet? A just released New York study now suggests that there are large numbers infected with the Wuhan flu with no symptoms, about 13.9% of the population, indicating that the overall death rate is probably quite close to the flu.
The article does not state that conclusion, being CNBC and therefore unwilling to come to any conclusion that might suggest things are not terrible. However, see this analysis of a different New York study, with comparable numbers:
Thinking about that study showing that 13.7% of pregnant women presenting for delivery at NYC hospitals in March-early April tested positive for COVID-19 AT THE TIME of admission. Unless one thinks pregnant women are more likely to have been exposed to the virus than other people in the population, surely must mean that ~15% of NYC has been exposed. (Recall also that the NYC study was only of active infections not of antibodies.) If so, then 10,000 deaths out of 15% of NYC (1.2 million) points to an infection fatality rate around .008, very much in the ballpark of seasonal flu. [emphasis mine]
The first reliable numbers from South Korea and the Diamond Princess had shown death rates of about 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. While about ten times higher than the flu’s death rate of about 0.1%, it was also very clear then that these death rates were grossly high because of very large underestimates of the total number of people infected.
Now we are getting better numbers on the total infection rate — including large numbers of healthy individuals who get the disease and never show symptoms — and the evidence is strongly telling us that the Wuhan flu is not that dangerous, killing mostly older and sick individuals, and doing it at the same rate as the flu.
For this we allowed the press and our power-hungry political class to nullify the Bill of Rights and bankrupt the nation? A lot of heads should roll. And soon.
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
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An evening pause: A modern rendition of the classic Andrews Sisters wartime hit.
Hat tip Phill Oltmann.
Capitalism in space: Swarm, builder of the tiny cubesats dubbed SpaceBees, has teamed up with Momentus to use that company’s Vigoride cubesat upper stage to position its satellites in different orbits after launch.
Under an agreement announced April 22, Momentus will arrange rides for 12 Swarm SpaceBee satellites on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare mission in December 2020 with additional SpaceBee launches scheduled in 2021 and 2022.
To offer global coverage for customers seeking to relay messages through the internet, Swarm satellites must be stationed in different orbital planes and spread out within those orbital planes like a string of pearls, Sara Spangelo, Swarm co-founder and CEO, told SpaceNews.
For the Falcon 9 launch in December, Momentus will not move Swarm SpaceBees to a new orbital plane. In the future, Momentus’ Vigoride in-space shuttle will offer Swarm the option of moving SpaceBees from the rocket’s drop-off point to different locations, Negar Feher, Momentus vice president of product and business development, said by email.
Both companies have raised significant investment capital.
Capitalism in space: Firefly Aerospace has signed a deal whereby the satellite broker Spaceflight will provide the payloads for one of Firefly’s Alpha rocket launches, planned for 2021.
The smallsat launch company already has several other launch contracts, even as development of its rocket proceeds.
Firefly is in the final phases of development of Alpha, and hopes to perform its first launch later this year. Markusic said the company is assembling the first flight vehicle, with plans to perform static-fire tests of the second stage in May and the first stage in June. Once those tests are complete, the vehicles will be shipped to Vandenberg, where work is continuing to modify Space Launch Complex 2 West, a former Delta 2 pad.
A lot can happen between now and 2021, but so far Firefly appears a strong candidate to launch and compete with Rocket Lab.
Using data from several recent lunar orbiters, scientists have compiled and now released the first comprehensive geologic map of the Moon.
To create the new digital map, scientists used information from six Apollo-era regional maps along with updated information from recent satellite missions to the moon. The existing historical maps were redrawn to align them with the modern data sets, thus preserving previous observations and interpretations. Along with merging new and old data, USGS researchers also developed a unified description of the stratigraphy, or rock layers, of the moon. This resolved issues from previous maps where rock names, descriptions and ages were sometimes inconsistent.
“This map is a culmination of a decades-long project,” said Corey Fortezzo, USGS geologist and lead author. “It provides vital information for new scientific studies by connecting the exploration of specific sites on the moon with the rest of the lunar surface.”
The image to the right shows the Moon’s near side.
The complete map file is free to download, and I guarantee that scientists and engineers in China are downloading it even as I type, planning to use it to establish their ownership to the Moon’s most valuable real estate that we scouted for them.
An evening pause: On Glen Campbell’s birthday, I think it appropriate to post Ashley Campbell singing a song written for her father in his declining years.
Hat tip Tom Biggar.
Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully launched 60 more Starlink satellites.
The launch was significant in several ways. They reused the first stage for the fourth time, landing it successfully. They reused the fairing for the second time.
And with this launch, the Falcon 9 has now flown more than the Atlas 5, and has the most launches of any active American rocket.
This flight marks a major point in U.S. launch operations, as Falcon 9 reaches 84 flights to its name and officially takes the mantle from Atlas V as the most flown, currently operational U.S. rocket.
Atlas V began flying on 21 August 2002 and has 83 flights to its name after 18 years — for an annual rate of 4.6 launches. Falcon 9 began flying on 4 June 2010 and will reach 84 flights in just under 10 years with a flight rate of 8.4 launches per year.
That SpaceX overtook the Atlas 5 so quickly indicates exactly how successful SpaceX has been in grabbing market share from all its launch competitors.
I have embedded the video of the launch below the fold.
The leaders in the 2020 launch race:
6 China
6 SpaceX
5 Russia
The U.S. now leads China 10 to 6 in the national rankings.
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Click for full image.
As a break from Wuhan flu madness I give you another cool image, cropped and reduced to post here, taken by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). I call this stucco on Mars because that is exactly what it looks like. It is as someone laid down a layer of damp concrete and then ran over it roughly with a trowel to raise the knobs scattered across the surface.
The uncaptioned MRO image calls this “Aligned Mounds with Broad Summit Pits”. Those aligned mounds run across the top of the image. I suspect they are pedestal craters, left over because the impact had packed and hardened the crater so that it resisted erosion as the surrounding terrain was worn away.
The two insets, posted below at full resolutoin, focus on one of those pedestal craters as well as the distinct mesa at the bottom of the photo.
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I think this video clarifies perfectly the policies of our state and federal governments as well as the advice of all of their experts concerning the Wuhan flu. If we would only do what they tell us, all would be fine!
It also illustrates why we as citizens should simply begin living our lives normally, telling them to go to hell.
Capitalism in space: Dream Chaser’s wings have arrived at Sierra Nevada’s assembly facility in Colorado, where they will be attached to the spacecraft’s body.
Both the body and the wings were manufactured for Sierra Nevada by Lockheed Martin. There is a short video at the link showing the spacecraft’s body.
The first launch of Dream Chaser to ISS is still set for late in 2021.
UPDATE: The U.S. military has confirmed that two objects reached orbit, one the satellite and the other likely the rocket’s upper stage.
Original post:
————————————
Iran yesterday claimed it had successfully completed its first military orbital launch.
Using a mobile launcher at a new launch site, the Guard said it put the “Noor,” or “Light,” satellite into a low orbit circling the Earth. While the U.S., Israel and other countries declined to immediately confirm the satellite reached orbit, their criticism suggested they believed the launch happened.
There is no doubt Iran is aggressively trying to raise its presence as a space power. However, until this launch is firmly confirmed as successful, we must be skeptical of any claims they make, as they have lied repeatedly about previous launches.
At the same time, the use of a mobile launcher to attempt to get a satellite into orbit indicates they are developing very dangerous capabilities. With a mobile launcher, there is no need to build a complex launch facility. You can launch from practically anywhere, which makes it just about impossible to destroy the rocket facility beforehand.
Link here. Based on my reading, he thinks they can be helpful, but only to a very limited extent, and certainly not to the extent of any government here in the U.S. requiring their use.
The point is: does any of what is out there add up to a watertight case for compelling people to wear masks in public or at work (outside a healthcare setting)? The threshold for compulsion must surely be higher than ‘maybe’ and ‘perhaps’. [emphasis mine]
We are supposed to be a land of freedom, of personal choice and personal responsibility. Research this, make your own decision, but do not force your choice on others.
Note that if you can’t see the article because they are demanding that you subscribe, refresh and immediately hit the escape key. If you time it right (it’s not hard), you can keep the article text up and block the subscribe screen.
An evening pause: A wonderful cover of one of Elvis Presley’s most beautiful songs. From the comments: “Elvis Presley looking down from heaven with tears in his eyes and his hand on his heart.”
Hat tip Tom Biggar, who wrote, “This is why we need to fight for our freedom – for them.”
I personally pray that she will be free, and that we will have the guts to make sure that happens.
While many state governors across the United States dawdle and hesitate about lifting their panic-induced lock downs on their states out of fear it might cause a few more Wuhan virus deaths, the real devastation from their panic is propagating uncontrolled across the landscape, and will in the end kill far far more people.
Their actions have caused the entire economy to collapse, destroyed entire industrial sectors, prevented untold numbers from getting the proper healthcare when needed, and put millions of people out of work. In the end, this government-imposed depression will do far more harm that the Wuhan flu ever could, and do it for a much longer time spell.
Don’t believe me? Well let me count the ways, citing the numerous stories I have posted here on Behind the Black in only the past week.
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The beatings will continue until morale improves: Eight million restaurant workers out of work due to due to Wuhan panic and government-imposed shut downs.
In addition, the restaurant industry is predicting $240 billion (with a “b”) in losses by the end of the year. Moreover,
…roughly 3% of the restaurants in the US — or 30,000 restaurants — have already shuttered. In the early April survey, an additional 5% of operators said they anticipated closing in the next 30 days, meaning that more than 50,000 restaurants could shut down permanently.
In early April, UBS said that up to one in five restaurants in the US could close due to the coronavirus pandemic. Experts say that independent restaurants are particularly at risk, with many small businesses struggling to access PPP loans.
In my own neighborhood, I have already seen one restaurant go out of business, and another apparently destroyed just as it was about to open. Through the winter a new Indian restaurant was being built nearby, with signs saying it would soon open. Unfortunately the house arrest imposed by our fearless leader Governor Doug Ducey prevented them from opening as planned. Though the restaurant had signs up offering take-out this week, when Diane tried to pick up a menu so we could give them some business. the place was shut. I suspect they are out of business, a dream destroyed before it could even be born.
But hey, we can’t risk having anyone die from COVID-19, no matter how many other lives we destroy.
Are you enraged yet?
The beatings will continue until morale improves: The clean energy sector faces the loss of a half million jobs due to Wuhan panic and government-imposed shut downs.
The coronavirus crisis is cutting a savage swath through the U.S. clean energy industry – some 106,000 jobs in the sector vanished in the month of March alone as demand evaporated amid nationwide stay-at-home orders Moreover, that one-month job loss was greater than what the industry gained in jobs in all of 2019.
By June of this year, the clean energy sector may lose up to 500,000 jobs – or 15% of the country’s entire clean energy workforce — according to a study by clean energy advocacy group E2 (Environmental Entrepreneurs), in cooperation with the American Council on Renewable Energy, E4TheFuture and BW Research Partnership.
Let me repeat: More jobs vanished in just March than were created in all of last year.
If the states don’t start reopening soon, this will just be the beginning.
The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because state governments nationwide have forbid the entire healthcare system from treating anyone for anything that might in a rare instant be considered “non-essential”, cancer and heart patients are dying from lack of treatment.
Two stories from the article:
Although canceling procedures such as elective hernia repairs and knee replacements is relatively straightforward, for many interventions the line between urgent and nonurgent can be drawn only in retrospect. As Brian Kolski, director of the structural heart disease program at St. Joseph Hospital in Orange County, California, told me, “A lot of procedures deemed ‘elective’ are not necessarily elective.” Two patients in his practice whose transthoracic aortic valvular replacements were postponed, for example, died while waiting. “These patients can’t wait 2 months,” Kolski said. “Some of them can’t wait 2 weeks.” Rather than a broad moratorium on elective procedures, Kolski believes we need a more granular approach. “What has been the actual toll on some of these patients?” he asked.
Mr. R., a 75-year-old man with advanced heart failure, is another of Kolski’s patients for whom the toll has been great. Because he had progressive volume overload and delirium, Kolski referred him to a hospital for an LVAD workup in early March. Then, as his wife, Ms. R., told me, “the world went wonky, and everything went down the toilet.” Having begun admitting patients with coronavirus, the hospital told the couple it was kicking everyone else out. “They are telling me my husband has 6 to 12 months to live without this procedure,” Ms. R. said, “and now they are canceling it on us.” They were then quarantined at home — 2 hours away from the hospital — with no plan in place. Mr. R.’s health quickly deteriorated again, but his wife had been advised to keep him out of the hospital. When they finally had a video visit on April 9, he’d become so ill that the heart failure physician didn’t recognize him. Mr. R. was promptly admitted, and the LVAD was placed. Though Ms. R. is relieved, ongoing challenges include her husband’s persistent delirium, a visitor policy that allows her to be at the bedside only intermittently, and the need for nearby lodging that they can’t afford.
There are others. Read it all. I will also bet these doctors then wrote a fraudulent death certificate, claiming the heart patients died of the Wuhan flu.
This reminds me of my experience with my lung specialist. Unlike these people, I would not take no for an answer. How dare these doctors allow a heart patient to die because of a government edict?!
But we can’t let COVID-19 kill anyone, even if it means more people die from other causes!
This is madness, at a very high level.
And are you enraged yet? Or will you sit with folded hands while these tyrants smash their boots into your face?
