Tag: commercial

SpaceX and Arianespace make launch predictions for ’25 and ’26

9:40 am

In separate announcements this week, officials from Arianespace and SpaceX revealed their launch plans for the rest of this year and next.

First, Arianespace officials revealed yesterday that it is hoping to do six to eight Ariane-6 launches in 2026.

During a post-flight conference following the launch of Sentinel-1D, Arianespace CEO David Cavaillès stated that while the company preferred to wait until next year to reveal details about its 2026 launch manifest, it was aiming to double its launch cadence. He added that a cadence of between six and eight next year “will be great.”

If the company does manage eight Ariane 6 flights in 2026, it will already be close to reaching the stated maximum launch cadence of between nine and ten flights per year. When asked if this cadence could be increased, Cavaillès explained that the decision would be driven by customer demand.

Since customer demand for Ariane-6 has been quite low, because of its high cost, don’t expect this launch rate to rise much higher. Arianespace’s only big contract is 18 launches for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation. Once that is completed it is not clear where much future business will be coming from, even with some bureaucrats lobbying the European Space Agency to require its members to use it. There are too many cheaper options available now, with many more coming on line, both in America and Europe.

Next, a SpaceX official noted at a conference this week that the company hopes to complete another 25 to 30 Falcon 9 launches before the end of the year.

“We’re aiming for around 170 — between 165 and 170 — which means 25 to 30 more launches to go,” Kiko Dontchev, the company’s vice president of launch, said during a Wednesday session at the Space Economy Summit 2025.

…All together, “we’ll get to 2,400, 2,200 [metric tons launched] or something like that, which is absurd in the grand scheme of where things have been,” he added. Historically, that is close to the global record for metric tons launched to space by all companies and nations — about 2,500 metric tons in 2024, according to Jonathan’s Space Report, compiled by astronomer Jonathan McDowell.

In other words, SpaceX hopes its Falcon 9 rocket will this year alone place in orbit almost the same tonnage launched previously by everyone in the three-quarters of a century since Sputnik.

Cavaillès’ forecast means the company is likely to get very close to its prediction for launches at the beginning of the year, 180, that also included its Superheavy/Starship test launches. Quite an amazing achievement.

And as Al Jolson once said, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”

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State Department blasts the European Union’s proposed Space Act

9:06 am

The European Union
This label would be more accurate if it read
“NOT made in the European Union”

In a comment the State Department posted on November 4, 2025 on the European Commission’s website for public comment in connection with the European Union’s proposed Space Act, the Trump administration lambasted that law as imposing “unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.”

As a general matter, the United States expresses deep concern regarding measures in the proposed Act that would impose unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.

As close partners in civil, commercial, and security aspects of space cooperation for decades, the EU should proceed cautiously when developing and refining the proposed EU Space Act to ensure it provides a permissive and adaptable framework that promotes innovation, investment, and fair competition for the U.S., EU, and EU member states commercial sectors, while respecting each other’s sovereignty. Otherwise, the ability of the United States, the EU, and EU members to maintain government-to-government burden-sharing partnerships could be threatened. These non-tariff barriers would introduce challenges in the areas of space weather, remote sensing, space exploration, spaceflight safety, space debris mitigation and remediation, communications, as well as cooperations with the European Space Agency.

No one should be surprised by this response. Trump has always been aggressive in his desire to limit regulation. He has also been passionate about defending U.S. sovereignty. As I noted in June 2025 when the law was first released,
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Starlab picks Leidos to assemble, integrate, and test its space station prior to launch

8:07 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The consortium building the large single-module Starlab space station (intended to launch on Starship) yesterday picked the American company Leidos to assemble, integrate, and test its station prior to launch.

Leidos will assemble and integrate the components of Starlab’s space station into a complete system, supporting compatibility and verifying performance through environmental, functional and performance testing in Alabama. Additional responsibilities under the agreement include safety and mission assurance and systems engineering.

Since the consortium’s lead company, Voyager Space, raised nearly $400 million in its first public stock offering in June, Starlab has been signing up a lot of new partners, many of which like Leidos are aimed at building the station itself. First it signed the company Journey to design the station’s interior. Then it signed the Louisiana space hardware company Vivace to build Starlab’s primary structure. Next, a Belgium software company specializing in payload integration joined the consortium. Finally Voyager last week acquired the satellite electric propulsion company Exoterra. Initially I thought this last acquisition was aimed at increasing Voyager’s ability to win military contracts, but it also could provide the station itself with a system for orientation and propulsion.

All in all, this activity continues to strengthen Starlab’s position in the competition to win major contracts and customers leading to the construction of the station itself. Below is my updated rankings of the four commercial stations under development:
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Two American launches today, setting several new launch records

8:58 pm

The beat goes on! Three different American companies attempted launches today, with two successfully getting off the ground while the third was forced to scrub due to an unspecified technical issue.

First Rocket Lab successfully launched another radar satellite for the Japanese company Q-Shu Pioneers (iQPS), its Electron rocket lifted off from one of Rocket Labs’ two New Zealand launchpads. This was the fifth launch out of a total eleven-launch contract that Rocket Lab has from Q-Shu. The launch also tied Rocket Lab’s record for the most successful orbital launches in a single year, 14, set in 2024.

Next, SpaceX launched another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The launch once again set a new annual launch record for SpaceX.

Only about two hours later, ULA attempted to launch a Viasat communications satellite using its Atlas-5 rocket, also lifting off from Cape Canaveral. At T-minus 4 minutes however there was an unplanned hold. After trouble-shooting the problem for almost an hour, they scrubbed the launch with only a few minutes left in the launch window. They will try again tomorrow.

With the two successful launches, the world’s global launch industry tied the record that was set last year for the most successful orbital launches in a single year, 256. That record will certainly be passed in the next few days.

What is more significant is that until 2020, the industry struggled to reach 100 launches per year. Since then the numbers have skyrocketed, led mostly by SpaceX’s overwhelming success.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

144 SpaceX (a new record)
67 China
14 Rocket Lab (tying its previous record)
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 144 to 112.

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Arianespace launches European radar satellite

8:32 am

The commercial arm of the European Space Agency, Arianespace, yesterday successfully launched Europe’s Sentinel-1D radar satellite, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from France’s French Guiana spaceport.

As noted here,

The 2,184-kilogram Sentinel-1D satellite is a twin of Sentinel-1C, which was launched aboard a Vega C rocket in December 2024. Given that the Ariane 62 can deliver more than 10 tonnes to low Earth orbit, launching the 2.3-tonne Sentinel-1D on a dedicated flight appears excessive, particularly as its twin was launched on a Vega C rocket.

Officials claimed the reason was a need to get the satellite in orbit because one in orbit had failed, and because of the delay in Vega-C launches because of a launch failure. Since Vega-C however has fixed the nozzle issue that caused the failure and resumed launches, this argument is unconvincing. I suspect the real reason is that Arianespace has had problems getting customers for Ariane-6. Other than Amazon, which purchased 18 launches, European companies and nations have been generally reluctant to use Ariane-6 because it is too expensive (it is expendable).

This was only the fifth launch by Europe in 2025, so the leader board for the 2025 launch race remains unchanged:

143 SpaceX
67 China
13 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 143 to 111.

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Sergio Mendes & Brasil ’66 – Mas Que Nada

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Performed on television c1966. They are clearly lip synching to the original recording, but the song is great, and the sets and dancing are worth watching, if only to get a feel for 1960s variety show television.

Hat tip Cotour.

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Someone is apparently considering putting a helicopter on Starship when it goes to Mars

2:53 pm

Potential Starship helicopter location

In my regular trolling through the images sent down from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), I sometimes come across things that imply truly exciting future missions. That happened when in 2019 I found a bunch of photos each labeled as a “candidate landing site for SpaceX Starship”. Without fanfare SpaceX had begun researching locations for where it intended to land Starship on Mars, in the northern lowland plains, research that it later solidified considerably.

Similarly, I have found MRO images in 2022 suggesting scientists were thinking of running a helicopter mission inside Valles Marineris, the largest canyon in the solar system. Another image in 2024 suggested that a helicopter mission might go to another region in Mars’s southern cratered highlands.

The image to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, is another new example of a potential Martian helicopter mission. It was taken on August 19, 2025 and is labeled provocatively “Characterize Possible Rotorcraft Landing Site.” Unlike the previous two proposed helicopter locations, however — which appeared to be aimed at uncertain NASA funding — this image’s location suggests it is far more certain, and might launch far sooner than you can imagine.
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Intuitive Machines buys Lanteris, formerly Maxar

11:05 am

The lunar lander startup Intuitive Machines today continued its diversification into other space fields by acquiring the long-established satellite and spacecraft manufacturer Lanteris, formerly known as Maxar, for about $800 million.

The transaction is priced at $800 million, consisting of $450 million in cash and $350 million in Intuitive Machines Class A common stock, subject to adjustment. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions. As a stand-alone company, Lanteris is a cash generating business. As a combined company, Intuitive Machines expects to have adequate cash on hand for continued operations.

Intuitive Machines has attempted two lunar landings, both of which were failures when its lander fell over at touchdown. Since then it has made a concerted effort to diversify into other areas, including developing a returnable capsule, Zephyr, a lunar manned rover, Moon Racer, and an orbital tug. It has also acquired KinetX, a company specializing in space navigation and communications.

This new acquisition positions the company to bid on a much wider range of space projects, including military contracts relating to its Golden Dome project that is expected to cost billions.

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MDA invests $7 million to become part owner of proposed Nova Scotia spaceport

9:29 am

Proposed Canadian spaceports
Proposed Canadian spaceports

The Canadian space company MDA Space has now purchased for $10 million ($7 million in U.S. dollars) a part ownership in the proposed Spaceport Nova Scotia that the startup Maritime Launch Services (MLS) has been trying to establish since 2016, with little success.

The transaction includes an Investor Rights Agreement, entered into between MDA Space and Maritime Launch, providing MDA Space with certain rights, including the right to nominate one individual to sit on the board of Maritime Launch and pro-rata participatory rights in future financings of the Spaceport. The investment will be used for applicable research and development initiatives relating to the ongoing development of Spaceport Nova Scotia and will trigger the retirement of convertible debentures.

The history of this spaceport has been a frustrating one. Originally it had partnered with a Ukrainian rocket company, proposing to offer satellite companies both the launch facilities and the rocket. That plan died in 2022, when Russia invaded the Ukraine and the rocket company switched from making rockets to making drones.

MLS then opened up Spaceport Nova Scotia to all rocket companies, hoping the new launch startups building portable small rockets that could be set up anywhere would buy in. Though it periodically announced deals, none were with established orbital companies. Some were startups that after years have yet to launch, such as the British company Skyrora. Other contracts were with startups that weren’t even rocket companies, such as the space station startup Voyager Space.

Meanwhile, a second spaceport startup, Nordspace, appeared in 2022, proposing a spaceport in Newfoundland dubbed The Atlantic Spaceport. While it has not launched anything either, it has quickly signed contracts for ground stations and a mission control center, and even attempted (though scrubbed) a launch of its own rocket.

Whether this new deal can finally get Spaceport Nova Scotia off the ground remains very uncertain. MDA is not a launch company. It is a long established satellite company that also builds the robot arms used on ISS.

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A think tank releases its detailed review of the American satellite communications industry

11:09 am

The state of the satellite constellation industry
Go here and here for originals.

Link to the press release is here. To read the actual report go here.

The report was issued by the LEO Policy Working Group, which calls itself “an independent body dedicated to providing forward-looking, data-driven analysis and policy recommendations to ensure the successful and sustainable deployment of next-generation Low Earth Orbit satellite systems.” In reviewing the membership of this group, I noticed that only one member appeared drawn from the industry itself (a former OneWeb advisor). The rest of the members were from lobbying groups, government agencies, academia, or DC think tanks.

Thus, I immediately wondered if this report was aimed against SpaceX and its present dominance, designed to justify further government regulation against it.

In reviewing the report however it does not seem so, at least on the surface. The report very accurately and detail describes the present state of the industry and all the players, including all the present constellations in orbit or under construction. It also describes the state of the launch industry on which they depend, including the risks entailed by SpaceX’s present dominance. At the same time it also notes at length that there is no evidence that SpaceX is doing anything to take advantage of that dominance.

Its recommendations are generally vague, and can be summed up simply as “Government should remain vigilant but do nothing drastic at this time.”

The report’s main benefit however its overall summary of the industry, as well as its detailed description of how the spectrum is regulated by government agencies.
» Read more

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Is the German government holding up Rocket Lab’s purchase of German space communications company Mynaric?

10:08 am

Even though Rocket Lab announced in March that it was acquiring the German laser communications company Mynaric for $150 million, and entered into the stock purchase agreement in September, the company has not yet gotten approval for the purchase from the German government, raising questions that approval might be denied.

A central question for regulators and industry observers is whether Mynaric, once owned by Rocket Lab, would still be deemed a European entity — a status that could determine its eligibility to compete for Europe’s planned sovereign communications network, known as IRIS² (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite). The multibillion-euro program, backed by the European Union, is designed to strengthen Europe’s independence in secure satellite communications and may restrict participation to European-controlled firms.

Those regulators however also have to consider whether IRIS will even fly. Designed to provide a government option to the internet constellations being operated or built by Starlink, Kuiper, and several Chinese projects, it is significantly delayed, vastly over budget, and unlikely to compete very successfully. There have been rumors several EU nations are even balking at building it at all.

If Rocket Labs’ purchase of Mynaric is denied, it will likely not harm that company significantly. It will however be another example of Europe cutting off its nose to spite its face. It will block this American company from providing business to Europe, even as its own government projects wither on the vine.

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