Tag: competition

Three launches since yesterday, with a fourth upcoming today [scrubbed]

9:19 am

The beat goes on: Since yesterday there were three launches globally, two by China and one by SpaceX, with a fourth launch scheduled by Blue Origin only a few hours hence. UPDATE: Blue Origin launch scrubbed due to weather].

First China’s solid-fueled Long March 11 rocket placed three classified military test satellites into orbit, lifting off from an ocean platform off China’s northeastern coast.

Next, China’s solid-fueled Kinetica-1 (Lijian-1) rocket placed two “technical satellites” into orbit, lifting off from the “commercial” launchpad at the Jiuquan spaceport in the country’s northwest. As is normal, China’s press provided no information about the satellites, nor where Kinetica-1’s lower stages crashed inside China. The rocket itself is supposedly commercial, but it is built by a government agency, the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Finally, in the early morning hours today SpaceX placed 29 more Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The first stage (B1069) completed its 28th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. With this launch this booster tied the space shuttle Columbia for the number of reuses by a launch vehicle. As the rankings for the most reused launch vehicles below show, SpaceX now has four boosters close to becoming the most reused rockets ever.

39 Discovery space shuttle
33 Atlantis space shuttle
31 Falcon 9 booster B1067
29 Falcon 9 booster B1071
29 Falcon 9 booster B1063
28 Falcon 9 booster B1069
28 Columbia space shuttle

Sources here and here.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

146 SpaceX (a new record)
69 China (a new record)
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 146 to 114.

Blue Origin hopes to launch two NASA smallsat Mars orbiters later today from Cape Canaveral, using its New Glenn rocket. That launch is scheduled for 2:35 pm (Eastern). The company will once again attempt to land the first stage on a platform in the Atlantic. I have embedded the live stream below.

UPDATE: Launch scrubbed due to weather. The negotiations with the FAA (see below) now take on greater importance.

This will be the second launch of New Glenn, eleven months after its maiden flight in January. As has been the company’s culture for the past decade, it has moved very slowly from that first launch to this second. This pace however must accelerate soon, as Blue Origin has a 27-launch contract with Amazon to launch part of its Kuiper satellites. Amazon only has 154 satellites in orbit, and needs to get about 1,600 in place by July 2016 to meet the requirements of its FCC license. It also has launch contracts with ULA (46 launches, three of which have been completed) and ArianeGroup’s Ariane-6 (18 launches), but neither can on their own launch enough to do the job.

One last note: For this launch, Blue Origin is trying to arrange an exemption from the FAA’s curfew on day launches that begins tomorrow, in case some issue causes a scrub today. No word as yet on whether the FAA will agree.
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U.S. budget cuts shifts Blacksky’s satellite imaging business to international customers

9:24 am

Because of budget cuts by the Trump administration, the revenues of the satellite imaging company Blacksky fell in the third quarter of 2025, but the company expects to make up that loss with new income from international customers.

The administration’s fiscal 2026 budget proposal includes a one-third reduction to the National Reconnaissance Office’s commercial imagery procurement, a move that has rippled through companies like BlackSky that rely heavily on government intelligence contracts. The cuts specifically affect the Electro-Optical Commercial Layer (EOCL) program — an NRO initiative to buy satellite imagery from commercial providers.

BlackSky reported $19.6 million in third-quarter revenue, missing analyst expectations and down from the previous quarter. Chief Executive Brian O’Toole told analysts the reduction stemmed from adjustments to the company’s EOCL contract “to reflect the potential baseline budget submitted by the administration.”

Sound terrible, eh? Not so fast.

Despite the domestic headwinds, BlackSky is seeing a sharp uptick in overseas business. The company said international sales now account for about half of total revenue, up from 40% a year ago. O’Toole said foreign demand is “outpacing our U.S. government business” and that the company expects international sales to exceed U.S. sales for the first time in 2026.

Blacksky is of course blocked from selling its high resolution reconnaissance imagery to hostile powers, but there are plenty of American allies out there who want this data.

The situation is simple. When American companies are given the freedom to produce, they will create products of value. And the sky won’t fall if the federal government can no longer be their main customer.

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Echostar sells more of its licensed spectrum to SpaceX

9:05 am

Echostar announced this week that it has sold additional spectrum that had been licensed to it by the FCC to SpaceX, getting in return about $2.6 billion in SpaceX stock.

EchoStar has entered into an amended definitive agreement with SpaceX to sell the company’s unpaired AWS-3 licenses for approximately $2.6 billion in SpaceX stock valued as of September 2025. This transaction builds on the agreement the companies entered into in September. EchoStar’s unpaired AWS-3 licenses are nationwide and are part of 3GPP Band 70n (1695-1710 MHz uplink). “This transaction with SpaceX, in addition to our previously announced spectrum transactions and commercial agreements, will strengthen EchoStar’s ability to develop new business opportunities and growth in value for our shareholders,” said Hamid Akhavan, CEO, EchoStar Capital. “The combination of AWS-3 uplink, AWS-4 and H-block spectrum from EchoStar with the rocket launch and satellite manufacturing capabilities from SpaceX accelerates the realization of powerful and economical direct-to-cell service offerings for consumers and enterprises worldwide, including our Boost Mobile customers.”

In other words, Echostar was not making any money from this spectrum on its own. By partnering with SpaceX it can do so, because SpaceX has the satellites and rockets capable of making it happen, and a cost that is affordable.

Nor should the companies have much problem getting FCC approval. Echostar had previously been accused of under-utilizing its licensed spectrum. This deal with SpaceX helps solve that issue.

In other Starlink news, SpaceX has begun rolling out Starlink service in India, while also striking a deal with British Airlines to use Starlink on its airplanes.

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One launch today by SpaceX, while ULA scrubs for the second time in two days

7:46 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched another 28 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its 8th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

ULA for the second day in a row was forced to scrub a launch of a Viasat communications satellite due to “a reoccurrence of the issue with the Atlas V booster liquid oxygen tank vent valve.” No new launch data has as yet been announced.

The contrast between these two rocket companies here is truly striking. In the past two days SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 has launched twice, like clockwork, while ULA can’t get off the ground because of a valve issue, the kind of niggling problem that routinely scrubs its launches. It is thus rare that ULA launches on time, on schedule, as planned.

SpaceX’s launch however sets a new record for successfully launches in a single year by the entire world, 257, breaking the record set last year. These numbers are two to five times what the global launch industry managed annually for most of the space age, and signal the renaissance in rocketry brought on by Elon Musk and SpaceX. Nor I think have we reached peak numbers. Not even close.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

145 SpaceX (a new record)
67 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 145 to 112.

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Judge approves plea deal related to Boeing’s malfeasance that caused two 737-Max crashes killing 346

3:03 pm

Boeing Logo

After further hearings during this past month, a judge ruled today to accept the plea deal worked out between Boeing and the Justice Department that allows the companyto avoid a criminal prosecution for its malfeasance and fraud that led to two 737-Max airplane crashes that killed a total of 346 people, thus dismissing the pending criminal charges.

A criminal conspiracy case was held against Boeing following the two fatal crashes of its 737 MAX 8 aircraft. The Department of Justice had initially accused Boeing of deceiving the federal regulators in relation to flight control system issues. Following the dismissal, Boeing has agreed that it would pay and or invest up to $1.1 billion in compensation to victims’ families, alongside other fines.

This dismissal comes almost a year after Boeing had reached an agreement with the DOJ, under which it would see the American plane manufacturer plead guilty and serve a term of probation. In a report by CNBC, the dismissal order acknowledged the victims’ families, many of whom opposed the dismissal, that the agreement could fail to secure the necessary accountability to ensure the safety of the flying public, and that the dismissal did not acknowledge that the manufacturer needed to be subject to independent monitoring.

It should be noted that Boeing has not only admitted to its corrupt behavior, it has already thumbed its nose at the Justice Department. As I noted in March,

In 2021 Boeing admitted to these charges as part of a plea deal with Justice, whereby prosecution would be deferred for three years if Boeing took certain actions to clean up its act. When that deal expired in 2024, Justice determined that Boeing had failed to live up to its agreement. Rather than go to criminal trial however government lawyers instead attempted twice to settle the case by having Boeing pay a big fine, first $243 million and then $455 million. In both cases the deals fell through when lawyers for the victims’ families objected.

The families still object, for the very rational reasons listed above. Boeing remains a very untrustworthy company, with a corporate culture that does not appear to require high standards, or even low standards, while allowing corruption and fraud to run rampant. This deal in many ways lets it off the hook.

At the same time, the deal is clearly an effort by Justice to give Boeing another opportunity to reform itself. We shall see if it works. Skepticism is certainly called for.

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SpaceX and Arianespace make launch predictions for ’25 and ’26

9:40 am

In separate announcements this week, officials from Arianespace and SpaceX revealed their launch plans for the rest of this year and next.

First, Arianespace officials revealed yesterday that it is hoping to do six to eight Ariane-6 launches in 2026.

During a post-flight conference following the launch of Sentinel-1D, Arianespace CEO David Cavaillès stated that while the company preferred to wait until next year to reveal details about its 2026 launch manifest, it was aiming to double its launch cadence. He added that a cadence of between six and eight next year “will be great.”

If the company does manage eight Ariane 6 flights in 2026, it will already be close to reaching the stated maximum launch cadence of between nine and ten flights per year. When asked if this cadence could be increased, Cavaillès explained that the decision would be driven by customer demand.

Since customer demand for Ariane-6 has been quite low, because of its high cost, don’t expect this launch rate to rise much higher. Arianespace’s only big contract is 18 launches for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation. Once that is completed it is not clear where much future business will be coming from, even with some bureaucrats lobbying the European Space Agency to require its members to use it. There are too many cheaper options available now, with many more coming on line, both in America and Europe.

Next, a SpaceX official noted at a conference this week that the company hopes to complete another 25 to 30 Falcon 9 launches before the end of the year.

“We’re aiming for around 170 — between 165 and 170 — which means 25 to 30 more launches to go,” Kiko Dontchev, the company’s vice president of launch, said during a Wednesday session at the Space Economy Summit 2025.

…All together, “we’ll get to 2,400, 2,200 [metric tons launched] or something like that, which is absurd in the grand scheme of where things have been,” he added. Historically, that is close to the global record for metric tons launched to space by all companies and nations — about 2,500 metric tons in 2024, according to Jonathan’s Space Report, compiled by astronomer Jonathan McDowell.

In other words, SpaceX hopes its Falcon 9 rocket will this year alone place in orbit almost the same tonnage launched previously by everyone in the three-quarters of a century since Sputnik.

Cavaillès’ forecast means the company is likely to get very close to its prediction for launches at the beginning of the year, 180, that also included its Superheavy/Starship test launches. Quite an amazing achievement.

And as Al Jolson once said, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”

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China’s Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter snaps fuzzy picture of interstellar comet 3I/Atlas

9:22 am

Comet 3I/Atlas, as seen by China's Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter
Click for original image.

Chinese engineers have successfully taken a picture of interstellar comet 3I/Atlas as it passed its closest to point to Mars, about 19 million miles away, using their Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter.

The Tianwen-1 team began preparing for the observation in early September. After repeated simulations and feasibility assessments, they determined to use the high-resolution camera on the orbiter and designed optimal imaging strategies, ultimately achieving successful observation.

That image is to the right. Based on the fuzziness of the surrounding stars, the camera was not able to get a perfect focus during the observations. The main take-away is that the images once again prove 3I/Atlas is a comet not unlike those from our own solar system.

The mainstream press and some untrustworthy press-seeking scientists have tried to make a big deal about any interesting data point that has been observed from Comet 3I/Atlas, trying to claim it is some weird alien object of momentous importance. It is not. It is like every other solar system comet, though like those comets it is unique in its own way.

The big discovery here is how similar it is from solar system comets, suggesting that the processes that created our solar system are somewhat common throughout the galaxy.

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State Department blasts the European Union’s proposed Space Act

9:06 am

The European Union
This label would be more accurate if it read
“NOT made in the European Union”

In a comment the State Department posted on November 4, 2025 on the European Commission’s website for public comment in connection with the European Union’s proposed Space Act, the Trump administration lambasted that law as imposing “unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.”

As a general matter, the United States expresses deep concern regarding measures in the proposed Act that would impose unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.

As close partners in civil, commercial, and security aspects of space cooperation for decades, the EU should proceed cautiously when developing and refining the proposed EU Space Act to ensure it provides a permissive and adaptable framework that promotes innovation, investment, and fair competition for the U.S., EU, and EU member states commercial sectors, while respecting each other’s sovereignty. Otherwise, the ability of the United States, the EU, and EU members to maintain government-to-government burden-sharing partnerships could be threatened. These non-tariff barriers would introduce challenges in the areas of space weather, remote sensing, space exploration, spaceflight safety, space debris mitigation and remediation, communications, as well as cooperations with the European Space Agency.

No one should be surprised by this response. Trump has always been aggressive in his desire to limit regulation. He has also been passionate about defending U.S. sovereignty. As I noted in June 2025 when the law was first released,
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Starlab picks Leidos to assemble, integrate, and test its space station prior to launch

8:07 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The consortium building the large single-module Starlab space station (intended to launch on Starship) yesterday picked the American company Leidos to assemble, integrate, and test its station prior to launch.

Leidos will assemble and integrate the components of Starlab’s space station into a complete system, supporting compatibility and verifying performance through environmental, functional and performance testing in Alabama. Additional responsibilities under the agreement include safety and mission assurance and systems engineering.

Since the consortium’s lead company, Voyager Space, raised nearly $400 million in its first public stock offering in June, Starlab has been signing up a lot of new partners, many of which like Leidos are aimed at building the station itself. First it signed the company Journey to design the station’s interior. Then it signed the Louisiana space hardware company Vivace to build Starlab’s primary structure. Next, a Belgium software company specializing in payload integration joined the consortium. Finally Voyager last week acquired the satellite electric propulsion company Exoterra. Initially I thought this last acquisition was aimed at increasing Voyager’s ability to win military contracts, but it also could provide the station itself with a system for orientation and propulsion.

All in all, this activity continues to strengthen Starlab’s position in the competition to win major contracts and customers leading to the construction of the station itself. Below is my updated rankings of the four commercial stations under development:
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Two American launches today, setting several new launch records

8:58 pm

The beat goes on! Three different American companies attempted launches today, with two successfully getting off the ground while the third was forced to scrub due to an unspecified technical issue.

First Rocket Lab successfully launched another radar satellite for the Japanese company Q-Shu Pioneers (iQPS), its Electron rocket lifted off from one of Rocket Labs’ two New Zealand launchpads. This was the fifth launch out of a total eleven-launch contract that Rocket Lab has from Q-Shu. The launch also tied Rocket Lab’s record for the most successful orbital launches in a single year, 14, set in 2024.

Next, SpaceX launched another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The launch once again set a new annual launch record for SpaceX.

Only about two hours later, ULA attempted to launch a Viasat communications satellite using its Atlas-5 rocket, also lifting off from Cape Canaveral. At T-minus 4 minutes however there was an unplanned hold. After trouble-shooting the problem for almost an hour, they scrubbed the launch with only a few minutes left in the launch window. They will try again tomorrow.

With the two successful launches, the world’s global launch industry tied the record that was set last year for the most successful orbital launches in a single year, 256. That record will certainly be passed in the next few days.

What is more significant is that until 2020, the industry struggled to reach 100 launches per year. Since then the numbers have skyrocketed, led mostly by SpaceX’s overwhelming success.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

144 SpaceX (a new record)
67 China
14 Rocket Lab (tying its previous record)
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 144 to 112.

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Arianespace launches European radar satellite

8:32 am

The commercial arm of the European Space Agency, Arianespace, yesterday successfully launched Europe’s Sentinel-1D radar satellite, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from France’s French Guiana spaceport.

As noted here,

The 2,184-kilogram Sentinel-1D satellite is a twin of Sentinel-1C, which was launched aboard a Vega C rocket in December 2024. Given that the Ariane 62 can deliver more than 10 tonnes to low Earth orbit, launching the 2.3-tonne Sentinel-1D on a dedicated flight appears excessive, particularly as its twin was launched on a Vega C rocket.

Officials claimed the reason was a need to get the satellite in orbit because one in orbit had failed, and because of the delay in Vega-C launches because of a launch failure. Since Vega-C however has fixed the nozzle issue that caused the failure and resumed launches, this argument is unconvincing. I suspect the real reason is that Arianespace has had problems getting customers for Ariane-6. Other than Amazon, which purchased 18 launches, European companies and nations have been generally reluctant to use Ariane-6 because it is too expensive (it is expendable).

This was only the fifth launch by Europe in 2025, so the leader board for the 2025 launch race remains unchanged:

143 SpaceX
67 China
13 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 143 to 111.

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