Tag: ESA

A detailed look at Europe’s $1 billion commitment to its nascent commercial rocket industry

11:12 am

The European Space Agency

Link here. In announcing last week the European Space Agency’s (ESA) budget for the next three years, along with its general overall goals, the European council (dubbed CM-25) also apparently committed about $1.45 billion to its “European Launcher Challenge”, a program created in 2023 and designed to encourage the development of new European rockets, owned and operated by independent competing startups.

The article at the link provides a good overall summary of major increase in funding for this program, including which ESA countries are contributing the most and why. The key quote however is this:

In July 2025, ESA shortlisted Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg, PLD Space, MaiaSpace, and Orbex to proceed to the initiative’s next phase. It then began discussions with the host country of each company to assess its willingness to contribute to that company’s participation in the European Launcher Challenge.

During his post-CM25 address, ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher revealed that Member States had committed double the anticipated amount for the European Launcher Challenge, with the final figure exceeding €900 million. While the funding model’s structure suggests that only the UK, Spain, France, and Germany contributed, post-CM25 disclosures have indicated that a few additional countries also committed funds to the programme.

Germany appears to be the biggest contributor, supplying more than a third of the total fund ($422 million). This isn’t surprising, since Germany also has the most rocket startups, three, two of which are on that shortlist (Rocket Factory and Isar). Spain is next with a contribution of $196 million, aimed helping the rocket startup PLD. The UK is next, also contributing $196 million, likely to be used to support its Orbex startup that wants to launch from its Saxavord spaceport in the Shetland Islands.

A variety of other ESA nations, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Norway, have also outlined their contributions, for a variety of space-related startups unrelated to rockets.

France also appears to have donated a significant amount, but has not made that number public. Its MaiaSpace startup is one on that shortlist above, but France also has one or two other rocket startups that might eventually qualify for aid.

The bottom line is that ESA here is committing funding to aid the development of rockets and space infrastructure that it won’t own or control, a major shift from its past policy of owning and controlling everything through its Arianespace pseudo-commercial company, what I call the Soviet- or government-run model. Instead, these ESA nations are going to help fund a range of competing private rockets, which will own the rockets and operate them for profit. ESA will simply become one of their customers, following the capitalism model that the U.S. switched to in the previous decade.

This increased commitment to capitalism in the ESA suggests that we should see some real progress by these startups in the next three years.

If you think the launch records being set this year are breath-taking, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

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ESA’s member nations approve a major budget increase

9:28 am

The European Space Agency

At the council meeting of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) member nations taking place this week in Bremen, Germany, the council approved a major 32% budget increase for the agency over the next three years.

The largest contributions in the history of the European Space Agency, €22.1 bn, have been approved at its Council meeting at Ministerial level in Bremen, Germany.

Ministers and high-level representatives from the 23 Member States, Associate Members and Cooperating States confirmed support for key science, exploration and technology programmes alongside a significant increase in the budget of space applications – Earth observation, navigation and telecommunications. These three elements are also fundamental to the European Resilience from Space initiative, a joint response to critical space needs in security and resilience.

“This is a great success for Europe, and a really important moment for our autonomy and leadership in science and innovation. I’m grateful for the hard work and careful thought that has gone into the delivery of the new subscriptions from the Member States, amounting to a 32% increase, or 17% increase if corrected for inflation, on ESA’s 2022 Ministerial Council,” said ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher.

How ESA will use this money however remains somewhat unclear, based on a reading of the various resolutions released in connection with this announcement. As is typical for ESA, the language of every document is vague, byzantine, and jargon-filled, making it difficult to determine exactly what it plans to do. Overall it appears the agency will continue most of the various projects it has already started, and do them in the same manner it has always done them, taking years if not decades to bring them to fruition (if ever). It also appears the agency will devote a portion of this money to create new “centers” in Norway and Poland, which as far as I can tell are simply designed to provide pork jobs for those nations and ESA.

The resolutions also placed as the agency’s number one goal not space exploration but “protect[ing] our planet and climate” (see this pdf), a focus that seems off the mark at a very base level. While I could find nothing specifically approving the odious space law that attempted to impose European law globally (and has been vigorously opposed by the U.S.), the language in this document suggests the council still heartily wants to approve that law, and if it doesn’t do so in total it will do so incrementally, bit by bit, in the next few years.

The most hopeful item among these resolutions was the €4.4 billion the council reserved for space transportation, with the money to be used to pay for upgrades to both the Ariane-6 and Vega-C rockets and the facilities in French Guiana, as well as expand ESA’s program encouraging the new rocket startups from Germany, Spain, and France. If ESA uses this money wisely — mostly for the latter item — it will do much to create for itself a competitive launch industry, something it presently does not have.

It will take a bit of time to see how these decisions play out. It remains very unclear at this moment if Europe is choosing the Soviet or the capitalism model for its future in space.

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European Space Agency faces reality: Its partnerships with NASA are fading

10:48 am

The European Space Agency

It appears that the European Space Agency (ESA) is now recognizing that two of its major partnership deals with NASA are likely going to fall apart, and it has therefore begun putting forth new proposals to repurpose those projects during a meeting in Germany this week of its member states.

The two projects are ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter intended to bring Perseverance’s Mars samples back to Earth, and its service module for NASA’s Orion capsule. In the former case, NASA’s decision to cancel the Mars Sample Return Mission leaves that orbiter in limbo. NASA might still fly a sample return mission, but it will almost certainly not do it as originally planned, involving numerous different components from many different sources in a complex Rube-Goldberg arrangement. ESA is now considering repurposing this orbiter as a research spacecraft studying the Martian atmosphere while also being a Mars communications satellite for other missions.

As for the Orion service module, ESA is now recognizing that it is unlikely NASA will continue funding Orion after it completes its presently scheduled missions, totaling at most four. ESA has contracted to build six service modules, and is now studying options for using the last few in other ways, such as a cargo tug in low Earth orbit.

ESA officials are also reviewing its entire future at the conference, considering how private enterprise has completely outrun it in all ways. Its expendable Ariane-6 rocket is a long term financial bust, being too expensive to compete in the modern launch market of reusable rockets. Its proposed IRIS2 satellite constellation will cost too much and launch far too late to compete with the private constellations already in service or being launched by SpaceX, AST-SpaceMobile, Amazon, and China.

To counter this trends, ESA has already made some major changes, shifting ownership and control of its rockets back to the private companies that build them. However, its bureaucracy has appeared resistant to this change, and is apparently lobbying for more funding and control at this week’s meeting, asking the member nations to increase their funding to the agency, giving it a total budget of 22.2 billion euros. There has also been lobbying by ESA supporters for a new Space Law that would supersede the individual space laws of its member states, and also attempt to impose its regulations on non-member nations, beyond its sovereign authority. That law is strongly opposed by the U.S., the private sector, and even some of ESA’s member nations.

The bottom line however is that the nature of the European Space Agency is undergoing major changes, with its work increasingly shifting to its member nations instead of being part of a cooperative effort. While ESA bureaucrats continue to push to protect and strengthen their turf, ESA’s member nations have been increasingly pushing back, and winning that battle.

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Canada commits a half billion to European Space Agency projects

8:53 am

During a conference yesterday, Canada’s industry minister Mélanie Joly announced that her government has increased its budget for European Space Agency (ESA) projects to a total of $528 million over the next three to five years.

This funding increases is quite significant, approximately ten times greater than Canada’s previous budget commitments to ESA projects.

Few details were provided on how the money would be spent.

Joly said the investment would advance research and development of Canadian-made space technologies for both civilian and defence purposes. These include satellite communications, Earth observation, space exploration, positioning, navigation and timing, and space situational awareness, she said.

While most of the western world is shifting to the capitalism model, where the government buys what it needs from products owned by the private sector, it appears the present leftwing Canadian government under Mark Carney is moving instead in the direction of the Soviet model, whereby the government builds and owns the projects itself. This ESA commitment falls into that latter category, at least on the surface. Much however will depend on how ESA and Canada eventually decide to spend the cash.

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Europe finalizes transfer of Vega-C rocket back to its builder, Italian company Avio

9:05 am

European Space Agency logo

In an agreement signed on November 14, 2025, the European Space Agency (ESA) completed the transfer of the Vega-C rocket, formerly controlled by the government-owned company Arianespace, back to the Italian company Avio.

Following decisions taken by the ESA Council in 2023, the revision of the Launchers Exploitation Declaration (LED) was finalized on 10 July 2025 and the Guiana Space Centre Agreement was signed on 23 October 2025. The LEAs signed today translate the LED mandate to ESA into concrete detailed implementation arrangements between ESA and the launch operators.

The two arrangements signed today – one with Arianespace and ArianeGroup for Ariane 6, and one with Avio for Vega-C – define the roles and responsibilities of each operator and ESA’s role in monitoring its implementation. They also establish the framework for cooperation between the parties to ensure Europe’s continued autonomous access to space through the exploitation of ESA-developed launchers from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.

The quote above also details other changes. The Ariane-6 rocket is now controlled by a partnership of Arianespace and ArianeGroup, with the bulk of control by the latter, a private company that owns the rocket. Though Arianespace retains some management rights, its part in the rocket’s future has been reduced significantly.

Meanwhile, ownership and control of the French Guiana spaceport has now been transferred entirely from Arianespace and back to France’s space agency CNES. CNES has been running things more or less for the past year or so, but this makes the change official.

All in all, these agreements continue ESA’s shift in the past two years away from the government-run model, centralized under Arianespace control, to the capitalism model, where the government is merely a customer, buying what it needs from independent, competing, privately-owned companies. While these agreements highlight Avio and ArianeGroup, Europe also has a flock of new rocket startups (Isar, Rocket Factory Augsburg, PLD) on verge of their first launches.

If Europe maintains its commitment to this shift, it should see some exciting developments in space in the coming years.

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Europe’s Trace Gas Orbiter circling Mars gets images of interstellar Comet 3I/Atlas

4:47 pm

Interstellar Comet 3I/Atlas
Click for movie.

Using Europe’s Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) that is in orbit around Mars, engineers have obtained images of the interstellar Comet 3I/Atlas.

The image to the right is a screen capture of the last image in a movie they created from all the pictures. I have added the arrow to indicate the comet, which underlines the fact that these images really don’t tell us that much about the comet itself. It is hardly more than a few pixels across, with no real detail resolved. However, the data has still been found useful.

Until September, figuring out the location and trajectory of 3I/ATLAS relied on Earth-based telescopes. Then between 1 and 7 October, ESA’s ExoMars TGO turned its eyes towards the interstellar comet from its orbit around Mars. The comet passed relatively close to Mars, approaching to about 29 million km during its closest phase on 3 October.

The Mars probe got about ten times closer to 3I/ATLAS than telescopes on Earth and it observed the comet from a new viewing angle. The triangulation of its data with data from Earth helped to make the comet’s predicted path much more accurate.

While the scientists initially anticipated a modest improvement, the result was an impressive ten-fold leap in accuracy, reducing the uncertainty of the object’s location.

All the data continues to confirm that 3I/Atlas is nothing more than comet, though like all comets unique in its own way. This refined location data will also improve the on-going observations of Europe’s Jupiter probe Juice, presently on its way to Jupiter and in the best position to see 3I/Atlas.

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SpaceX and Arianespace make launch predictions for ’25 and ’26

9:40 am

In separate announcements this week, officials from Arianespace and SpaceX revealed their launch plans for the rest of this year and next.

First, Arianespace officials revealed yesterday that it is hoping to do six to eight Ariane-6 launches in 2026.

During a post-flight conference following the launch of Sentinel-1D, Arianespace CEO David Cavaillès stated that while the company preferred to wait until next year to reveal details about its 2026 launch manifest, it was aiming to double its launch cadence. He added that a cadence of between six and eight next year “will be great.”

If the company does manage eight Ariane 6 flights in 2026, it will already be close to reaching the stated maximum launch cadence of between nine and ten flights per year. When asked if this cadence could be increased, Cavaillès explained that the decision would be driven by customer demand.

Since customer demand for Ariane-6 has been quite low, because of its high cost, don’t expect this launch rate to rise much higher. Arianespace’s only big contract is 18 launches for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation. Once that is completed it is not clear where much future business will be coming from, even with some bureaucrats lobbying the European Space Agency to require its members to use it. There are too many cheaper options available now, with many more coming on line, both in America and Europe.

Next, a SpaceX official noted at a conference this week that the company hopes to complete another 25 to 30 Falcon 9 launches before the end of the year.

“We’re aiming for around 170 — between 165 and 170 — which means 25 to 30 more launches to go,” Kiko Dontchev, the company’s vice president of launch, said during a Wednesday session at the Space Economy Summit 2025.

…All together, “we’ll get to 2,400, 2,200 [metric tons launched] or something like that, which is absurd in the grand scheme of where things have been,” he added. Historically, that is close to the global record for metric tons launched to space by all companies and nations — about 2,500 metric tons in 2024, according to Jonathan’s Space Report, compiled by astronomer Jonathan McDowell.

In other words, SpaceX hopes its Falcon 9 rocket will this year alone place in orbit almost the same tonnage launched previously by everyone in the three-quarters of a century since Sputnik.

Cavaillès’ forecast means the company is likely to get very close to its prediction for launches at the beginning of the year, 180, that also included its Superheavy/Starship test launches. Quite an amazing achievement.

And as Al Jolson once said, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”

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ESA awards contract to Italian company to provide an ocean landing platform

10:19 am

Avio's proposed reusable upper stage
Click for original.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has awarded the Italian company Ingegneria Dei Sistemi (IDS) a contract to build an ocean vessel for recovering the planned reusable test upper stage being built by the Italian rocket company Avio, as shown in the graphic to the right.

In late September, ESA awarded a €40 million contract to Avio for the design of a reusable rocket upper stage. The project scope encompasses preliminary design work, including system requirements and technological solutions, for both the launch system and the ground segment. According to the agency, the project has a number of potential applications, including as an evolution of Avio’s Vega family of rockets.

On 15 October, IDS announced that it had been awarded the contract to design the project’s recovery vessel, which falls under the systems ground segment. The company has subcontracted Italian naval systems consultancy Cetena and Norwegian shipbuilder Vard to assist with the project.

ESA very clearly is trying to encourage the development of reusable rockets by Europe’s private sector, but the nature of this particular program seems badly thought out. Rather than have Avio design the system in its entirety, in order to make it as efficient and profitable as possible, it appears ESA is micromanaging the design process, and thus bringing other subcontractors in who are outside Avio’s control. As a result, the final demo might work, but it is not likely it will be competitive with the private reusable rockets being built in the U.S. and elsewhere. Too many cooks in the kitchen.

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Germany’s space agency DLR delivers one prototype leg for Europe’s Callisto grasshopper

8:45 am

Callisto's basic design
Callisto’s basic design

Government in-action: After a decade of work, the German space agency DLR this week finally delivered for testing a prototype leg of the Callisto grasshopper-type demo rocket, intended by the European Space Agency (ESA) to demonstrate vertical take-off and landing.

On 9 October, the Institute of Structures and Design announced that it had delivered a qualification model of the demonstrator’s landing leg to the Institute of Space Systems in Bremen. According to a 3 December 2024 update, the leg will now undergo a series of tests at the Institute’s Landing and Mobility Facility, including deployment, touchdown, and vibration testing.

Once the qualification test campaign is complete and the landing leg design has been validated, the Institute of Structures and Design will proceed with the construction of the four flight-ready legs.

Note again that Callisto, as shown to the right, was proposed as a joint ESA and JAXA project in 2015. Only now, a decade later, as DLR delivered one prototype leg. The first test hop has been repeatedly delayed, so that now it is now not expected to happen until 2027, and that rocket will not even be an operational version, it will simply be a small scale prototype.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has landed its Falcon 9 first stage hundreds of times, and reused them dozens of times. Other companies are flying or building their own reusable rockets, and hope to fly operational versions next year.

The contrast between this government project and the private sector is quite embarrassing. What makes it even more embarrassing is that it is par for the course, and yet so many people still look to the government as the god who can get things done. When will people learn?

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ESA looks to global private sector for its next ISS cargo mission

10:13 am

ESA logo

The European Space Agency (ESA) has issued a request for bids to launch a cargo mission to ISS by the fourth quarter of 2028, and its request will allow companies other than those in Europe to bid.

Published on 3 October, the call for the CSOC Cargo Commercially Procured Offset initiative outlines a single mission to transport 4,900 to 5,000 kilograms of pressurised cargo to the ISS.

… In the call’s “Letter of Invitation”, the agency stated that, due to regulatory requirements that include certifications provided by NASA, the competition would be open to economic operators from the United States. ESA did, however, add that preference would be given, to the “fullest extent possible”, to bids from its Member States.

While the call is set to close on 31 October, the execution of the mission’s procurement will only move forward if the necessary funding is approved by Member States at ESA’s Ministerial Council meeting in November. It will then need to be approved by the relevant Programme Board and the Industrial Policy Committee.

Though there are several European startups (The Exploration Company, Thales Alena, Atmos, PLD) now developing unmanned returnable capsules that will eventually be able to bring cargo to and from ISS, none appear likely to be able to meet the 2028 deadline. Thus, the most likely winner of this contract will be SpaceX.

More significant is the nature of ESA’s request. In the past the agency simply built and owned its own cargo capsule, the ATV. Rather than build another, it is adopting the capitalism model, asking its private sector to make it happen.

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Avio wins $47 million study contract to build reusable upper stage rocket

9:20 am

Avio's proposed reusable upper stage
Click for original.

The Italian rocket company Avio has won $47 million study contract from the European Space Agency (ESA) to begin design work on a reusable upper stage rocket.

The contract runs for two years, with a goal to “assess and prepare the requirements, the design and the technologies for both the ground and flight segments required for an upper stage demonstrator that in the future could return to Earth and be reused on another flight.”

In other words, Avio is not yet building this upper stage, but will use this money to work up a design. The Avio graphic to the right suggests the lower stage will be based on the first stage of Avio’s solid-fueled Vega-C rocket. The upper stage concept appears to resemble Starship, which suggests Avio will be aiming for a vertical landing, using the methane-fueled engines it is developing for its not-yet-launched Vega-E rocket.

This ESA contract once again shows that agency’s shift to the capitalism model. Rather than develop this idea in-house, as it has done so poorly in the past, ESA has asked a private company to do it, and own what it develops.

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Avio wins U.S. launch contract for its Vega-C rocket

9:19 am

Capitalism in space: In what I think is a first, the Italian rocket company Avio has won a Vega-C launch contract without any participation from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) commercial division Arianespace.

The contract is also with an American company, SpaceLaunch, to put an “institutional Earth observation satellite” in orbit in 2027.

The significance of the deal is that Avio is now successfully marketing and selling its Vega-C rocket, without the middleman Arianespace taking a cut. As part of the shift of ESA and Europe to the capitalism model, whereby it no longer runs things but acts merely as a customer, it also freed Avio from the clutches of Arianespace. Previously, Avio built the rocket for that government agency, which then marketed and sold it to satellite companies. Avio had no control over profit or price. In fact, it didn’t really own its own rocket.

This absurd situation is now ending. There are still a handful of Vega-C launches that were contracted for under Arianespace, but after these Avio will be completely in charge. This deal, announced yesterday, is the beginning of that process.

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