Sergei Prokofiev – Dance of the Knights
An evening pause: Stay with it as the opening is rarely included.
Hat tip Judd Clark.
Author: Robert Zimmerman
On the radio
This coming Sunday night, January 5, 2025, I will be doing two hours on Coast to Coast with George Noory, beginning at 11 pm (Pacific). I hope my readers tune in and ask questions.
Then, on Thursday, January 9, 2025, I will appear for two hours on the UAP Cross-Fire podcast, available both here and on youtube.
Both shows should be quite entertaining, especially because the hosts will likely be taking a different take on space and the future.
January 2, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- The rough specs of the Chinese Halong re-usable mini-shuttle being built to ferry cargo to the Tiangong-3 space station
It can carry two tons of cargo and stay docked for three months, then return with cargo.
- Chinese pseudo-company Landspace touts completion of nine engines for its Zhuque-3 rocket
The rocket is essentially a copy of the Falcon 9, with a re-usable first stage. The first three launches in ’25 will use an older version, followed by the upgraded re-usable version.
- A detailed survey of the new rockets China will launch in 2025
Most of the rockets are coming from pseudo-companies, with several aiming for re-usability soon thereafter.
- Astronomers now posit that at least one fast radio burst came from the magnetosphere of neutron star
Interesting study, with a lot of uncertainty.
- Eutelsat-OneWeb constellation down for two days, now back in operation
The outage was caused because software did not realize 2024 was a leap year.
India and SpaceX announce their planned launch goals for 2025
We now have predictions from both India and SpaceX on the number of times each will attempt orbital launches in 2025.
In a tweet from India’s space agency ISRO today, the agency announced it plans ten launches in 2025. This count includes one launch of its man-rated Heavy Lift Vehicle-Mark 3 (HLVM3) rocket in March, testing its unmanned Gaganyaan manned capsule, one launch of its slightly smaller LVM3 rocket, four launches of its older GSLV rocket, three of its even smaller PSLV rocket, and one of its smallest new rocket, the SSLV. The last two the Indian government hopes to transfer to the private sector. (Note: The tweet says nine launches, but the graphic shows ten.)
This prediction does not include any additional orbital launches that India’s two private rocket startups, Agnikul and Skyroot, might attempt. Both have said they hope to do their first launches in 2025.
SpaceX meanwhile is hoping to smash its own record in 2024. According to comments made by the company’s CEO Gywnne Shotwell in mid-December (comments that I missed at the time), the company is planning 175 to 180 launches in 2025. This increase will likely come from two sources. First, it is my understanding that the company is adding another drone ship to its recovery fleet, allowing for more Falcon 9 launches. Second, it is probably going to be able to conduct Starship/Superheavy launches much more frequently, because the Trump administration is almost certainly going to eliminate much of the FAA regulatory red tape that has stymied the entire American rocket industry these last four years.
In the coming weeks I expect more nations and companies will announce their intended launch targets for 2025.
Sunspot update: Is this sunspot maximum over, or will it become another doubled peaked maximum?
Well, after almost fifteen years it had to happen at last. In preparing to do my monthly sunspot update today, which I had done every month since I started Behind the Black in 2010, I discovered that I had completely forgotten to do the update in December. Sorry about that.
No matter, the changes from month-to-month are not often significant, and fortunately that turned out to be the case in November and December of 2024. Since my last update at the beginning of November 2024, sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun has been relatively stable, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity. In November the activity dropped slightly, only to recover a small amount in December.
» Read more
The global launch industry in 2024: A year of amazing highs and depressing lows, with the best yet to come
For the past five years the entire global rocket industry has experienced a revolution that has resulted in a rise in global launch numbers unprecedented since the launch of Sputnik in 1957. 2024 was no different, with the total number of successful launches topping 256, two to four times the average number of launches that had occurred yearly prior to 2020.
This success has almost entirely been driven by the arrival of many private rocket companies competing for government and commercial business — led largely by SpaceX — aided by the decision by governments worldwide to get out of the way and let private enterprise do the job. The result has been spectacular, so much so that it now seem possible in the very near future to see humans finally revisiting the Moon and even getting to Mars and the asteroids.
At the same time, 2024 saw some significant signs that this success is not guaranteed, and could vanish in an instant if care is not taken.
The graph below, my annual count of launches world wide, provides the groundwork for these conclusions.
» Read more
A detailed look at SpaceX’s investors and its stock valuations
Link here. The article provides a good review of some of SpaceX’s major investors as well as the recent rounds whereby employees who hold common stock are allowed to sell some shares as a bonus.
Secondary sales like this remain one of the only ways that employees have to sell their shares. Another bit of good news for employees in this sale [in December] was that the $70 per share price was an improvement over the previous tender of $56 when adjusting for the stock split, Bloomberg reported at the time. And Bloomberg also reported last month that the next tender offer may be as high as $108 to $110 apiece.
SpaceX remains a private company however. This is not stock that can be traded on the stock market, but privately issued (under strict rules) to raise money without giving stock-holders rights to operate the company.
Neil Young – Old Man
An evening pause: Performed live 1974.
Hat tip Cotour.
January 1, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who surprised me today with these links. I had assumed he’d take the day off!
This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Firefly touts a static fire test of its Alpha rocket
The tweet also suggests the company will launch “multiple” times in 2025. We shall see.
- India’s space agency announces it will telecast the docking of its Spadex satellites
The unmanned docking is scheduled to take place at 4 pm (Indian standard time) on January 7, 2025.
- Video of the two Spadex spacecraft in orbit yesterday
Over the next week the chase satellite will approach the target increasingly closer, 5 km, 1.5 km, 500 m, 225 m, 15 m, and 3 m, followed by the January 7th docking.
An apparent rocket part falls in Kenya
What appears to have been a rocket stage separation ring fell in Kenya on December 30, 2024, and local officials from Kenya’s space agency are attempting to confirm and identify the source.
The pictures of the ring show a lot of details, so it should not be hard to identify what rocket it came from, assuming the owner is willing to come forward. While most will do so, China might not.
Seventh Starship/Superheavy test launch now targeting January 10, 2025
Based on a single word tweet by Elon Musk as well as the FAA’s license approval, it now appears that SpaceX is targeting January 10, 2025 for the seventh Starship/Superheavy test orbital launch.
According to the FAA license, the launch window that day opens at 4 pm (Central), with backup launch opportunities each day through January 15th.
Reading that license is very illuminating. The depth in which the FAA now demands compliance from SpaceX is beyond daunting, and illustrates the mission creep the agency has used to grow its power. Based on a recent Supreme Court ruling, the company likely has grounds to sue and win, correctly claiming that Congress never gave it such power over so many things, and that its regulatory oversight is unconstitutional.
Angelo Kelly & Family – Auld Lang Syne
An evening pause: For this and all coming New Years. Performed live 2016.