August 16, 2023 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Category: Behind The Black
SpaceX launches another 22 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral
SpaceX tonight successfully launched another 22 Starlink satellites into orbit. its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral at 11:36 pm Eastern.
The first stage completed its thirteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairings completed their 10th and 11th flights, respectively. As of posting the satellites had not yet deployed.
SpaceX has another launch scheduled only hours hence, at midnight (Pacific) from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, aiming to put another 22 Starlink satellites in orbit using a first stage flying for its fifteenth time.
Until that second launch, the leaders at this moment in the 2023 launch race are as follows:
56 SpaceX
35 China
11 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
6 India
In successful launches, American private enterprise now leads China 64 to 35 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 64 to 57. SpaceX by itself trails the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 56 to 57, but this will become a tie if the second launch occurs as planned.
Tim “Randm” Salaz – Modern dance
An evening pause: As one commenter on youtube said, “This guy’s body must be fully made of water.”
Hat tip Dave McCooey.
Two-thirds of all approved cancer drugs do nothing for patients
A long term study in Sweden of 22 cancer drugs that its government had approved for rapid use before being tested fully has found that two-thirds provided absolute no benefit to patients.
The Gothenburg team examined 22 cancer drugs approved for reimbursement in Sweden over the last 10 years, examining studies that tested their ability to improve quality of life or lengthen lifespans. On average, these reports examined the drugs for 6.6 years.
Results revealed only seven of the 22 drugs had at least one study which showed a clear benefit for cancer patients. Randomized controlled trials on the other 15 failed to show any tangible benefits for people with cancer. Only one drug in the study showed an ability to both improve the quality of life and extend lifespans for patients.
“We have shown that the majority of the drugs launched with limited evidence still lack clear evidence of how they actually affect survival and quality of life in patients,” says Gabriella Chauca Strand, a doctoral student at Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg and the lead author of the study, in a university release.
This sentence from the university’s press release was even more striking:
Only one of the drugs had scientific evidence of both increased life expectancy and improved quality of life for its indication.
Essentially, 95% of these approved drugs were failures. Most did nothing and were worthless, despite the Swedish government paying huge amounts of money buying them. A few either improved the quality of life (but failed to keep the patient alive) or kept the patient alive longer (but made their lives miserable).
Does this sound familiar? Doesn’t make you wonder about the drug approval process in the U.S., especially after the disaster of the emergency approval of the COVID shots that we know now not only failed to prevent infection, were actually very harmful to many.
August 16, 2023 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- ULA’s CEO says the welding to reinforce Vulcan’s upper stage is finished
He also says the first launch of Vulcan this year is “looking good.” Put no money on this promise.
- New Indian rocket company, Astrophel Aerospace, touts successfully static fire engine test
The company’s press release tied this test to India’s independence day, and added this nice touch: “Let us remember that the fire of freedom burns within us, inspiring us to keep striving, keep pushing boundaries, and keep shaping a brighter future.” Right on!
- Smallsat Alliance announces the winners of the first annual Collegiate Space Competition
The three runners-up developed concepts for removing space junk using cubesats, while first place was given to an instrument related to monitoring environmental conditions, with a nod to climate change.
- Luna-25 has officially entered lunar orbit
It took two engine burns. Next step, the landing burn, presently targeting August 21, 2023.
- According to a Coast Guard notice, SpaceX is now targeting August 31, 2023 for Starship/Superheavy orbital test flight
SpaceX always does this to pressure government paper pushers. It has now put the FAA on notice that it is ready to launch by the end of this month, and any delays thereafter will be entirely because of government intransigence. We shall now find out if (as I have been predicting) the FAA and the Biden administration intends to stall SpaceX, or instead it really wants to get Starship/Superheavy flying.
- Video of the SLS mobile launcher being rolled to launchpad today
Engineers want to test some systems while also doing crew rehearsal.
West Virginia University: to save money it eliminates 32 majors instead of its bloated overhead
West Virginia University: An example of bankrupt academia?
Bankrupt academia: The bankruptcy of intellectual thought in modern American academia is finally beginning to percolate down to the bankbook, at least in West Virginia. On August 11, 2023 the administration at West Virginia University released a report proposing the elimination of 32 majors while also eliminating 169 faculty positions.
The preliminary recommendations, released Friday afternoon, said 12 of those programs are undergraduate majors and 20 are graduate-level majors. Other programs were told to reduce their faculty size — 169 faculty jobs are on the line for cuts.
Programs marked for discontinuation included: master’s and doctorate in Mathematics; master’s and doctorate in Higher Education Administration; master’s of Public Administration; master’s of fine arts in Creative Writing; and a bachelor’s in Recreation, Parks and Tourism Resources. The Department of World Languages, Literatures and Linguistics, which includes Spanish, Russian and Chinese studies, was marked to be completely dissolved.
You can read the full report here. It is important to look closely at it, as it reveals some stark facts about how bankrupt academia remains. » Read more
An avalanche in the West Virginia of Mars
Click for original image.
Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on June 27, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).
I have cropped it to focus on this one hill, about 900 feet high (though the elevation data from MRO is somewhat uncertain at this resolution), because of that major landslide on its northern slopes. At some point in the past a major piece of the exposed bedrock at the top broke off and slide about halfway down the mountain, almost as a unit, settling on the alluvial fill that comprises the bottom half of the hill’s flanks.
The bedrock surrounding the peak is also of interest because of its gullies, all of which were created by downward flowing material. Was it ice? Water? Sand? Or maybe a combination of two or three? If water or ice was involved it was a very long time ago, as this location is in the dry equatorial regions of Mars. There is little known near-surface ice here.
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Scientists discover in Alaska the largest dinosaur track site in U.S.
Click for original image.
Paleontologists have discovered in Alaska a new dinosaur track site that appears to contain numerous exposed tracks on what is now a series of vertical walls covering an area larger than a football field.
The picture to the right shows the entire site. The darker flat walls that appear to be dimpled are the track sites, with the dimples the actual tracks.
Researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks made the discovery following a seven-hour hike into the Denali National Park and Preserve, and it is now the home of the largest known single dinosaur track site in the US state.
Like a geological triple-decker (or more) sandwich, the 20-story-high structure, pushed vertical due to tectonic plate convergence, reveals a cliff face of layer upon layer of preserved prints throughout time. “It’s not just one level of rock with tracks on it,” said Dustin Stewart, the paper’s lead author and a former UAF graduate student. “It is a sequence through time. Up until now, Denali had other track sites that are known, but nothing of this magnitude.”
The scientists think these now vertical walls, when horizontal in the past, marked a major water-hole location visited by numerous dinosaurs and other species.
SpaceX report on first Starship/Superheavy launch failure submitted to FAA
Though we don’t know exactly when this was done, SpaceX has submitted to the FAA its final report on its investigation into the launch failure during the first Starship/Superheavy test launch in April, and now awaits the FAA’s response.
Now comes the FAA’s review of SpaceX’s investigation, fulfilling the agency’s role as the regulator charged with ensuring public safety during commercial launch operations. “When a final mishap report is approved, it will identify the corrective actions SpaceX must make,” an FAA spokesperson told Ars. “Separately, SpaceX must modify its license to incorporate those actions before receiving authorization to launch again.
Do not expect that response to be fast, or accepting. I predict the FAA will demand a lot more investigation and changes from SpaceX, actions that will take time to implement and be approved. Furthermore, I fully expect the FAA to take at least two months to review the SpaceX report before it issues those demands. As I have been predicting since May, there will be no Superheavy/Starship launch this year.
Astra scrambling to find investors as its cash reserves dwindle
Despite a major reorganization, including laying off a quarter of its workforce, Astra now appears to be scrambling to find new investors even as its available cash reserves shrink.
The company’s financial runway is diminishing even as the company finds new sources of capital, such as a loan announced Aug. 4 that will provide Astra with $10.8 million and plans announced in July to sell up to $65 million in Astra stock in an “at-the-market” transaction. The company forecasted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $25 million to $29 million in the third quarter, ending the quarter with $15 million to $20 million of cash and equivalents on hand.
One analyst on the call expressed frustration with those projections, asking Astra executives for the “upside” of the company’s plans. Kemp emphasized the backlog of orders for its thrusters, which Astra said Aug. 4 was valued at $77 million, as well as orders from the U.S. Space Force and the Defense Innovation Unit for the Rocket 4.
However, he suggested the company’s efforts to focus on thruster production were intended to buy time for Astra as the company looks for new investors. The company said Aug. 4 it was working with PJT Partners, an investment bank, to identify “potential strategic investments in the Astra Spacecraft Engine business” that would bolster its finances. “We are actively focused on finding investors in these two businesses,” he said, noting that the company’s launch and spacecraft propulsion business lines are distinct and “in different phases of their development.”
Essentially the company is approaching a make-or-break moment. What I think is likely to happen is it will either go bankrupt, or be purchased outright by a new big-money investor who will take over the company entirely, replacing its present management with new people.
Russia considering flying Proton rockets after 2025
According to a story today in Russia’s state-run TASS news outlet, the Khrunichev design bureau that builds Russia’s Proton rocket is in negotiation with Kazahkstan to use all the remaining Proton rockets available, even if that requires additional launches after 2025, the date Roscosmos had previously announced as when all Proton launches will cease.
The Khrunichev Center (part of the state-run space corporation Roscosmos) is actively working on future cooperation with the Kazakh side, including with regard to the use of the Proton carrier rocket, the center’s CEO Alexey Varochko told TASS. “The Khrunichev Center is actively working on various scenarios of mutually beneficial cooperation with the Kazakh side, including those involving the Proton carrier rocket,” Varochko said.
According to the official, the possibility of using Protons after 2025 may be considered only if both Russia and Kazakhstan give their consent.
It sounds like Khrunichev has some spare Protons, and wants to make some money from them, even if Roscosmos has forbid it. It also appears that there is political infighting within Roscosmos about the retirement of Proton and resulting the loss of government jobs at Khrunichev.
Chandrayaan-3 reaches final lunar orbit for landing
Click for interactive map.
India’s Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft completed its final lunar orbital engine burn today, placing it in the correct orbit to release the lander Vikram, carrying the Pragyan rover.
The release is scheduled for tomorrow, with the landing targeting August 23, 2023. This will be India’s second attempt to softland an unmanned probe on the Moon. The Vikram lander of Chandrayaan-2 failed in 2019 during its final engine burn above the surface, crashing thereafter. Engineers at India’s space agency ISRO spent several years upgrading that lander to better insure this new attempt would succeed.
The lander has been given more ability to manoeuvre during the descent, the mission allows for a bigger 4 km x 2.4 km area for landing, more sensors have been added, one of the thrusters has been removed, and the legs of the lander have been made sturdier to allow for landing even at slightly higher velocity. More solar panels have also been added to ensure that the mission can go on even if the lander does not face the sun. More tests to see the capability of the lander in different situations were carried out to make Chandrayaan-3 more resilient.
Both Vikram and Russia’s Luna-25 lander, scheduled for touchdown on August 21, will land in the high southern latitudes of the Moon, at about 70 degrees. They are not going to the Moon’s south pole, as many news reports claim.