Category: Points of Information

Very brief descriptions, with appropriate links, of current or recent news items.

Rogozin: Russia mostly bowing out of Gateway

10:14 am

The new colonial movement: The head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, yesterday announced during a speech at a virtual international space conference that Russia is mostly bowing out of participation in the U.S. lunar Gateway space station project, and will instead seek cooperation with China’s lunar program.

Russia apparently does not like the fact that the U.S. is insisting on taking a lead role in Gateway, and have it designed to primarily meet U.S. goals. Russia has also previously expressed opposition to the Trump administration’s insistence that any partners in Gateway sign the Artemis Accords, designed to provide legal protection for any private investment in space.

Whether they can get the deal they want from China remains very uncertain. China has made it clear they are willing to work with other partners, but China has also made it clear that they — like the U.S. — have their own goals in space, and that anything they do must serve those goals.

In his response, Bridenstine focused on the areas of agreement with Russia (establishing technical standards), but reiterated the U.S.’s commitment to the Artemis Accords. It is clear the Trump administration is fine with Russia’s decision.

For the U.S. Russia’s decision is probably a good thing. It leaves the way open to do what we want, without having to negotiate every decision. (This puts aside the issue on whether Gateway itself is a good decision.)

For Russia this announcement means they are really on their own for the first time since the Soviet era. Following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 Russia has largely been incapable of developing any new space project, and has needed to link its effort to the U.S. and ISS in order to be able to accomplish much of anything. Breaking free might actually benefit them, as the competition will force them to focus on their own efforts and actually achieve something.

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Blue Origin successfully completes another unmanned suborbital test flight of New Shepard

9:50 am

Capitalism in space: Blue Origin today successfully completed the seventh unmanned suborbital test flight for this particular New Shepard spacecraft/booster, landing both with no issues.

After a ten-month lull in flights following the previous test of Blue Origin’s suborbital New Shepard launch system, the company conducted a launch and landing of the fully reusable booster and capsule duo. Following weather-related and technical issues during a window late in September, the flight took place from the company’s West Texas facility — near Van Horn, Texas — on Tuesday morning at just after 8:35 AM CDT / 13:35 UTC.

This mission, also known as NS-13, saw 12 commercial payloads launched to the edge of space and back, including a NASA-developed sensor suite that could enable future lunar landing craft to perform safe and precise touchdowns on the surface of the Moon as part of NASA’s Artemis exploration program. As in the name, the NS-13 mission was the 13th test flight of the New Shepard launch system, and the first such flight of 2020.

What happens next with New Shepard remains unclear. Blue Origin officials had previously said they would do three test flights this year, with the last manned. Now it appears that manned flight will slip into ’21, but will use a new spacecraft/booster, the fourth built during New Shepard’s development.

I have embedded the video of the flight below the fold, cued to begin just before launch.
» Read more

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CDC study: Masks do nothing to stop COVID-19 infection

10:52 pm

A new CDC study shows that masks appear to have zero effect in stopping the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

An underreported, recently-published CDC study adds to the pile of evidence that cloth masks or other forms of mandated face coverings only contribute negatives to our COVID-19 problem. The study also displays — despite the constant accusations of widespread misbehavior from public health officials — that Americans are adhering to mask wearing, but mask wearing is not doing us any good.

The CDC study, which surveyed symptomatic COVID-19 patients, has found that 70.6% of respondents reported “always” wearing a mask, while an additional 14.4% say they “often” wear a mask. That means a whopping 85% of infected COVID-19 patients reported habitual mask wearing. Only 3.9% of those infected said they “never” wear a face covering.

The graph below from the study is damning. It shows that wearing a mask made no difference between those who got the disease (left column) and those in the control group.

CDC study graph: masks made no difference.

In either case, the number of cases remained the same no matter how much you wore the mask.

I suspect however that a larger study will find more infections among full-time mask wearers, especially if that study delineates between those medical professionals who are trained to wear the mask properly and with care, keeping it anti-septic, and the general public who fingers their mask continually and then sticks it in their pocket between uses.

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After months of encouraging lockdowns WHO officials now condemn them

1:23 pm

This past weekend officials of the World Health Organization (WHO) came out to publicly condemn the policy of lock downs to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Dr. David Nabarro from the W.H.O. appealed to world leaders on Saturday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.

He claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.

…Speaking to Andrew Neil of the Spectator magazine, Dr. Nabarro bemoaned the collapse of the international tourism industry and claimed there would be a “doubling” in the levels of world poverty and child malnutrition by 2021 as he warned that lockdowns make “poor people an awful lot poorer.”

“I want to say it again: We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as a primary means of controlling this virus,” Dr. Nabarro said.

This directly contradicts the head of WHO, who since April has been advocating lockdowns.

This disagreement within WHO further highlights the uncertainty of the effectiveness of lock downs, even as those lock downs without question devastate economies.

It does appear strange however for WHO to suddenly change its position, now so close to the election. If one was cynical, one could almost suspect they are now doing this because the election is almost here and once it passes and Joe Biden wins, they will need justification for ending the lock downs.

Of course, this assumes Biden will win. I predict that if Trump wins, WHO will suddenly have second thoughts, and will once again insist that the only cure of COVID is to outlaw all economic activity, as well as any conservative protest or gathering. BLM riots however will of course be permitted, as COVID cannot spread at such events.

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Florida proves (again) the stupidity of mask mandates

12:58 pm

On September 25, 2020 the Republican governor of Florida, Ron De Santis, lifted all mandates on mask use while ending all restrictions on restaurants

He was immediately lambasted by numerous Democratic Party Florida mayors as well as:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who warned that the change is “very concerning to me. When you’re dealing with community spread, and you have the kind of congregate setting where people get together, particularly without masks, you’re really asking for trouble.”

The mayor of Miami Beach, Democrat Dan Gelber, was especially harsh, stating in a letter to De Santis that
» Read more

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The Navy’s overreaction to COVID-19

12:09 pm

On October 10th the press breathlessly reported that “nearly two-thirds of the Navy’s deployable warships have endured COVID-19 outbreaks”.

What was not mentioned was the number of sailors killed by the outbreaks. Though the NAVY report says nothing about mortality, it does say this:

Sailor rates of infection are generally the same as the rates of infection in the local area. … Within the uniformed Navy population, roughly 35 percent of infected sailors exhibit few to no symptoms. This should build confidence in the ship’s ability to fight through outbreaks.

I strongly suspect that practically no one has died yet from coronavirus on a Navy ship. In fact, this sounds exactly like a typical flu season, where the flu quickly spreads among those confined in close quarters, but then peters out shortly thereafter, forgotten.

In other words, COVID-19 in the Navy (as elsewhere) is really nothing more than a variation of the flu, possibly more infectious to all and more harmful to the elderly sick, but harmless to practically everyone else.

The bad part of this is that, rather than let the disease play out quickly so that crews are promptly immune and the epidemic no longer can effect efficiency — as humanity has done for eons — the Navy is panicking like everyone else, instituting strict quarantines on all those infected, plus social distancing and mask rules. All this will do is prolong the agony, and interfere with the Navy’s operation. You can’t run a ship or a submarine realistically if you require everyone to keep six feet distance at all time.

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NASA charging Estee Lauder $17,500 per hour for filming its perfume on ISS

11:00 am

Capitalism in space: It now appears that NASA is charging Estee Lauder $17,500 per hour for filming the perfume that was just brought to ISS on the most recent Cygnus freighter.

The cosmetics giant will pay $17,500 per hour for the astronauts to take photos of their serum in space. Coincidentally — or not — the Space Station orbits the earth at 17,500 miles per hour.

The International Space Station is an orbiting laboratory for scientific research, but it’s the photo ops and viral videos that capture the public’s imagination.

Estée Lauder will get video and photos of their out-of-this-world product in the most photographed spot on the space station — the Cupola. The photos are not to be used in print or television advertising, but instead on social media, according to NASA. The astronauts won’t be using the product or be featured in the pictures.

The article also notes that NASA is dedicating 5% of astronaut time to commercial activities. Sooner or later I think NASA is also going to have to start paying their astronauts for this work. They deserve their share of the proceeds.

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A lunar landslide

10:03 am

Landslide on the Moon
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The image to the right was posted by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) science team on October 9, 2020, and shows a spectacular landslide almost a mile and a half long that had occurred on the interior rim of a crater on the Moon.

The top of the rim is on the left, with the landslide breaking out onto the floor of the crater on the right.

The walls of Kepler crater (30 kilometer diameter) exhibit numerous landslides. In this example, a landslide of dark material begins about 100 meters below the rim from a narrow box canyon. The box canyon is about 50 meters wide and 300 meters long. Overall, the slide is extends some 2300 meters (from the end of the canyon to its base). The base of the slide is on a fault block that lies some 1800 meters below the rim. The wall slope is about 33 degrees.

This slide is actually composed of a series of narrow landslides 20-30 meters wide. Along most of the slope, the individual slides overrun each other forming a band of debris up to about 180 meters wide. At the base of the slope, the individual slides can be recognized as they move apart forming a fan of material. A few individual isolated slides also occur adjacent to the main mass. The overlapping nature of these small slides indicate that the overall feature may have formed over a period of time, rather than all at once.

From above and at this resolution, the landslide looks almost like frozen flowing liquid. It allso looks like it began with a scattering of boulders breaking free at the top all at once that quickly consolidated into a single massive avalanche.

At the link you can zoom in or out to look at the entire image, at full resolution.

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SpaceX begins installing Raptor engines on Starship prototype #8

9:47 am

Capitalism in space: With Starship prototype having successfully passed its tank tests SpaceX has begun installing three Raptor engines in preparation for static fire tests followed by a 50,000 foot high hop.

Once the Raptors are installed, Starship SN8 is expected to undergo an extensive test program, opening with fueling tests, a spin prime test, and preburner tests, before the first Static Fire test.

That opening Static Fire test will be the first time three Raptors have been fired up simultaneously.

Once that opening Static Fire test has been completed, a data review will be conducted on engine performance and related systems – such as the Ground Support Equipment (GSE) – which will allow the nosecone to be installed on to SN8 at the launch site.

At that point the prototype will be ready for its hop. Based on the pace SpaceX is setting (and assuming all goes well), this flight should occur sometime in the next month, possibly at almost the same time as the next manned Dragon flight to ISS.

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A mile-long trail of human footprints about 12,000 years old

9:41 am

Scientists have found in New Mexico a mile-long trail of human footprints from about 12,000 years ago that was probably left by a woman and toddler.

Even more interesting, the tracks show that the woman (or male adolescent) retraced her route, without the child.

Unlike many other known footprint trackways, this one is remarkable for its length – over at least 1.5km [almost a mile] – and straightness. This individual did not deviate from their course. But what is even more remarkable is that they followed their own trackway home again a few hours later.

Each track tells a story: a slip here, a stretch there to avoid a puddle. The ground was wet and slick with mud and they were walking at speed, which would have been exhausting. We estimate that they were walking at over 1.7 metres per second – a comfortable walking speed is about 1.2 to 1.5 metres per second on a flat dry surface. The tracks are quite small and were most likely made by a woman, or possibly an adolescent male.

At several places on the outward journey there are a series of small child tracks, made as the carrier set a child down perhaps to adjust them from hip to hip, or for a moment of rest. Judging by the size of the child tracks, they were made by a toddler maybe around two years old or slightly younger. The child was carried outward, but not on the return.

There is also evidence of a mammoth and sloth crossed the tracks in-between the outward and return journey, with the sloth apparently sensing the human tracks or presence.

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Zvezda both leaking and heating up

9:23 am

A Russian news source today reported that the temperature in the ISS module Zvezda has been increasing even as air has been leaking slowly from it.

The article provides little additional detail, other than saying that “normal temperature should be restored” by today.

Why the module should be warming as it slowly leaks air is puzzling. Either way, as this is a module that has been in space for twenty years and is also a key component in the station’s operations, locating the leak is crucial. It might simply be caused by a micrometeorite hit, which can be easily patched. Or it could be caused by something more fundamental, caused by the module’s age, and thus more difficult, possibly even impossible, to fix. If so, the sooner engineers know the better.

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