The meteorite that landed in Russia on February 15 has now been traced to the Apollo family of near Earth asteroids.
New data has allowed scientists to lower the chance that the asteroid Apophis will hit the Earth in a future orbit.
Recent observations from Pan-STARRS PS1 telescope at Haleakala, Hawaii have reduced the current orbital uncertainty by a factor of 5, and radar observations in early 2013 from Goldstone and Arecibo will further improve the knowledge of Apophis’ current position. However, the current knowledge is now precise enough that the uncertainty in predicting the position in 2029 is completely dominated by the so-called Yarkovsky effect, a subtle nongravitational perturbation due to thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. The Yarkovsky effect depends on the asteroid’s size, mass, thermal properties, and critically on the orientation of the asteroid’s spin axis, which is currently unknown. This means that predictions for the 2029 Earth encounter will not improve significantly until these physical and spin characteristics are better determined.
The new report, which does not make use of the 2013 radar measurements, identifies over a dozen keyholes that fall within the range of possible 2029 encounter distances. Notably, the potential impact in 2036 that had previously held the highest probability has been effectively ruled out since its probability has fallen to well below one chance in one million. Indeed only one of the potential impacts has a probability of impact greater than 1-in-a-million; there is a 2-meter wide keyhole that leads to an impact in 2068, with impact odds of about 2.3 in a million.
The second paragraph basically says that the keyholes that might bring Apophis back to Earth are very small, making it unlikely that the asteroid will fly through any one of them in 2029. The first paragraph however notes that it will be impossible to chart the asteroid’s course accurately enough to rule out this possibility until we have more data on the asteroid itself.
Scientists have released some results, including video, from their look at asteroid 2012 DA14 during its fly-by last week. Key quote:
The asteroid’s path was perturbed by Earth’s gravitational field in such a way that it won’t come as close in the foreseeable future.
The video, which I have embeded below the fold, was produced from radar data. It clearly shows the asteroid’s rotation.
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Russian scientists have identified the first fragments from Friday’s meteorite in Chelyabinsk.
The pieces, found on the ice of a lake, were stony chondrites.
More on today’s Russian meteorite: Largest in a century.
My earlier skepticism appears incorrect. This impact actually happened.
Note the article’s sense of outrage and panic that we aren’t looking for these types of rocks:
Although a network of telescopes watches for asteroids that might strike Earth, it is geared towards spotting larger objects — between 100 metres and a kilometre in size. “Objects like that are nearly impossible to see until a day or two before impact,” says Timothy Spahr, Director of the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which tracks asteroids and small bodies. So far as he knows, he says, his centre also failed to spot the approaching rock.
Yet, today’s impact actually illustrates the wisdom of excluding this kind of small asteroid from searches. They aren’t big enough to do serious harm, and trying to find them would hamper searches for larger asteroids that do pose a serious risk.
How to watch asteroid 2012 DA14 zip past the Earth today.
An unexpected meteorite shower yesterday across three regions of Russia has reportedly caused more than 400 people to seek medical help.
Hundreds suffered cuts from broken glass as the meteorites smashed windows in numerous buildings across the Chelyabinsk Region, officials said. “The condition of at least three [people] is considered grave,” an Interior Ministry spokesman said. At least six cities have been hit in three central regions of Russia. Some areas of neighboring Kazakhstan were also affected, Russian state officials confirmed on Friday.
There is something about this story, reported in many Russian news sources, that smells fishy to me. Something happened, and it likely is related to a shower of meteorites, but the images at the link above as well as here and here just don’t look right.
A group of California scientists have proposed a system to vaporize asteroids that threaten Earth.
In developing the proposal, Lubin and Hughes calculated the requirements and possibilities for DE-STAR systems of several sizes, ranging from a desktop device to one measuring 10 kilometers, or six miles, in diameter. Larger systems were also considered. The larger the system, the greater its capabilities.
For instance, DE-STAR 2 –– at 100 meters in diameter, about the size of the International Space Station –– “could start nudging comets or asteroids out of their orbits,” Hughes said. But DE-STAR 4 –– at 10 kilometers in diameter, about 100 times the size of the ISS –– could deliver 1.4 megatons of energy per day to its target, said Lubin, obliterating an asteroid 500 meters across in one year.
They also propose an even larger system which could “enable interstellar travel.”
Asteroid 2012 DA14 might experience seismic activity, an asteroid quake, when it zips pass the Earth tomorrow.
[MIT scientist Richard] Binzel imagines what an astronaut floating alongside such an asteroid might see: “The surface could slowly sway or rock by a few centimeters. Other things to look for would be puffs of asteroid-dust rising from the surface and gentle avalanches on the steepest slopes of craters.” In rare cases, “rubble pile” asteroids might break apart during the encounter and then re-form as Earth recedes into the distance.
Chicken Little report: A 150 foot wide asteroid will buzz the Earth tomorrow at a distance of only 17,000 miles.
There have been numerous news articles about this fly-by for the last two weeks, all hyping the dangers of an impact that in this case simply won’t happen. A threat of an impact from an asteroid is real and should be dealt with, but the reporting here has at times been somewhat silly. Asteroid 2012 DA14 is not going to hit us as it goes by. All that will happen is that scientists will have take advantage of this opportunity to look at it.
Chicken Little report: An asteroid will miss the Earth by only 15,000 miles on Friday.
The competition heats up: Planetary Resources has released a video showing off the prototype of their Arkyd-100 space telescope.
As I noted when this company first appeared, for the foreseeable future they are going to be a manufacturer of space telescopes, not an asteroid mining company. At the same time, they, like Deep Space Industries, are going to drive satellite development towards lower cost and smarter design, which in the long run will make asteroid mining practical and profitable.
The plans and proposed launch schedule of the new asteroid mining company, Deep Space Industries.
They aim to do their work using cubesats, which will keep everything cheap and simple, with the first launches by 2015, and the first sample return missions by 2016. Their new manufacturing technology appears to be a variation of 3D printing, though the descriptions so far released remain vague on details.
We should have even more information later today, after their press conference, aired live on youtube here at 1 pm (eastern).
The competition heats up: Another asteroid mining company will announce its plans tomorrow, Tuesday.
As I mentioned earlier today, it is important to maintain a skeptical attitude to each of these new commercial space companies, even as we cheer them on enthusiastically. For example, I am very curious how this company has come through with a “breakthrough process for manufacturing in space.” What could this be, and why has no one thought of it before?
New and better quality images of the asteroid Toutatis from the Chang’e 2 fly-by have been released.
The sky is not failing: New radar data of Apophis now indicates that its chances of the asteroid hitting the Earth in 2036 is zero.
This data doesn’t eliminate the chance of a collision, only postpones it much farther into the future.
More Apophis news: New data from the Herschel Space Telescope suggests that the asteroid is bigger and less reflective than previous believed.
Instead of 900 feet across, they now estimate it has a diameter of about 1070 feet. And knowing that the asteroid has a lower albedo means that astronomers will be better able to gauge the effect of solar radiation on Apophis’s orbit.
How to watch the asteroid Apophis as it makes its not-so-close approach to Earth today. More here.
Closest approach, about 9 million miles, will take place around 5 pm (Eastern).
On Wednesday Apophis will pass the Earth at a distance of 9 million miles, allowing astronomers to gather more data about this asteroid’s orbit and composition.
Having crossed outside Earth’s orbit, Apophis will appear briefly in the night-time sky. Wednesday 9 January will afford astronomers the rare opportunity to bring a battery of telescopes to bear: from optical telescopes to radio telescopes to the European Space Agency’s Infrared Space Observatory Herschel. Two of the biggest unknowns that remain to be established are the asteroid’s mass and the way it is spinning. Both of these affect the asteroid’s orbit and without them, precise calculations cannot be made.
The origin of the dark material on Vesta.
I actually reported on this research result in detail back in August.
An ion test engine has set a new record for continuous operation.
The NEXT ion thruster is one of NASA’s latest generation of engines. With a power output of seven kilowatts, it’s over twice as powerful as the ones used aboard the unmanned Dawn space probe. Yet it is simpler in design, lighter and more efficient, and is also designed for very high endurance. Its current record of 43,000 hours is the equivalent of nearly five years of continuous operation while consuming only 770 kg (1697.5 lbs) of xenon propellant.
This engine will make the unmanned exploration of the asteroid belt extremely easy and practical.
You can relax: New data has confirmed that asteroid 2011 AG5 will not hit the Earth in 2040.
An meteorite that crashed in the Sierra Nevada mountains in April was traveling at the fastest speed on record for an meteorite, almost 18 miles per second.
Watch a three mile wide asteroid fly past the Earth – live tonight from 5 to 11 pm (Eastern)!
Messenger has found new and “compelling” evidence that there is water ice locked in the permanently shadowed craters of Mercury.
On Monday I had spoken to one of the project scientists for this discovery, David Lawrence, in connection with an article I am doing for Astronomy on the evidence of water on the Moon. I knew the Mercury announcement was coming, and asked him for some details. Based on what he told me, it struck me that the evidence for water on Mercury is actually more conclusive than the evidence for the Moon. (In fact, inconclusive nature of the lunar data is the point of my Astronomy article, based on previous posts here and here on Behind The Black.
The more intriguing aspect of this discovery on Mercury, however, is the unknown dark material that covers and protects some of this water ice. That some scientists believe it might even be organic material deposited there by comets and asteroids is most interesting.
Impressive radar images of near-Earth asteroid 2007 PA8 were taken during its recent fly-by of Earth.
The images … reveal possible craters, boulders, an irregular, asymmetric shape, and very slow rotation. The asteroid measures approximately one mile wide (about 1.6 kilometers).
The asteroid poses no threat to Earth. The resolution of the images, however, is astonishing, especially considering it was done by radar.
Meteorite hunters in Poland have found Eastern Europe’s larges meteorite, weighing almost 700 pounds.
The B612 foundation has signed its first contract for building Sentinel, its private infrared space telescope designed to find asteroids that might impact the Earth.
Chicken Little report: A house-sized asteroid will zip past the Earth in February at a distance less than 14,000 miles.
The asteroid, referred to as 2012 DA14, has a diameter of approximately 45m and an estimated mass of 130,000 tonnes. It was discovered at the start of 2012 and is set to travel between the Earth and our geostationary communication satellites on 15 February 2013. At a distance of just 22,500km this will be the closest asteroid ‘fly by’ in recorded history. Asteroid and comet researchers will be gathering at the University of Central Florida (UCF) in Orlando, U.S., to watch the event, but experts say there is no chance of a collision – this time.
The claim that this is the closest “fly by” in recorded history sounds bogus to me, but because of the size of this asteroid the fly-by will nonetheless be quite interesting. Scientists should be able to get a very good look at 2012 DA14 as it goes by.
