Tag: capitalism

Virgin Galactic finally admitted to its engine troubles on Friday.

9:34 am

Virgin Galactic finally admitted to its engine troubles on Friday.

They have dumped the original engine, switching to a different engine design that the rumors have said they have been testing for the past year.

The company press release is here, with commentary here.

Though it is a good thing that the company has finally come clean and made the switch, they probably waited far too long to do it, as the problems with the old engine likely caused several years delay in their schedule, allowing other companies to catch up with them and thus losing the significant technological advantage that they once held.

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While SpaceShipTwo continues to sit on the ground, European space tourism competitor Swiss Space Systems (S3) has initiated zero g flights for its customers.

1:10 pm

The competition heats up: While SpaceShipTwo continues to sit on the ground, European space tourism competitor Swiss Space Systems (S3) is going to initiate zero g flights for its customers.

These are not suborbital flights, but they will provide customers with the experience of weightlessness in a flight similar to that provided by the vomit comet that Zero-G flies. Eventually this company plans its own suborbital spaceship, but this way they get their customers in the air as soon as next year, rather waiting for more than a decade for development to get completed.

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The European partnership building the new Ariane 6 rocket struggles to keep its costs down to compete with SpaceX.

1:01 pm

The competition heats up: The European partnership building the new Ariane 6 rocket struggles to keep its costs down to compete with SpaceX.

Ariane 5 has been a huge triumph, orbiting half of the world’s communications satellites and claiming 60% of the 2012 world market for geostationary launches. But while the rocket is extremely precise and reliable it is also hugely expensive, with a single-payload flight costing €150-200 million. However, even at that price Ariane 5 launches are understood to be loss-making for ESA’s launch operator, Arianespace. Its high cost in in large part blamed on its industrial organisation; while private-sector SpaceX has tailored the Falcon programme for low cost production, the Ariane 5 project is organised in part to satisfy the demands of European multi-national politics.

Speaking exclusively to Flight Daily News, ESA’s Stefano Bianchi, who heads the Vega programme and now spends much of his time dedicated to Ariane 6 development, stresses that the programme is on course as set out by ESA’s member states, and any major change of configuration would require ministerial agreement.

But, he says, he and his colleagues are confident they can bring Ariane 6 to fruition at the target launch cost of €70 million – a level that would match or even undercut SpaceX. [emphasis mine]

This story is in connection with the conflict between France and Germany about how to build Ariane 6. I have specifically highlighted the cost figures to illustrate once again the reality that everyone in the industry knows (except for one commenter on my webpage), that the cost of a SpaceX launch runs in the neighborhood of $60 to $100 million, one third to half the cost of Arianespace and significantly less than the cost of practically every other launch company.

Any company that realistically wants to compete with SpaceX has to be totally honest about these facts. Their customers are honest about them, for certain.

Update: The CEO of ULA admits that the real cost of its military launches averages about $225 million per launch.

He claims they can get the cost down to $100 million per launch, but only if the military makes a bulk buy of 50 launches from them, but even that barely competes with SpaceX’s accepted launch fees ranging from $75 to $100 million, per launch. No need to buy 50 rockets from SpaceX to get these prices.

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SpaceX discovered a lot of water inside their Dragon capsule after splashdown.

12:44 pm

SpaceX discovered a lot of water inside their Dragon capsule after splashdown.

This has got to be fixed. Though it does not appear that any cargo inside was damaged, this is the second time this has happened. More important, it suggests that the capsule integrity cannot yet be trusted in the vacuum of space. If water can seep in, it is just as possible for atmosphere to leak out.

Keep this in mind when you read reports about SpaceX’s unveiling of their manned version of this capsule on May 29. As much as I am supportive of this company, the worst thing anyone can do is be blind to problems such as this.

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The battle between France and Germany on how to replace the Ariane 5 rocket continues.

9:13 am

The battle between France and Germany on how to replace the Ariane 5 rocket continues.

To save money and lower cost, France wants to build a rocket that mostly uses solid rocket motors. Germany however has a problem with this.

German government officials have said they will have difficulty supporting the current Ariane 6 design, which features four identical solid-fueled stages — two as strap-on boosters, and two as the vehicle’s first and second stages — topped by the cryogenic upper stage powered by the same restartable Vinci engine that is the main element of the proposed Ariane 5 upgrade. Germany, through its space agency, the German Aerospace Center, DLR, has said it would prefer a liquid-fueled first stage for Ariane 6 as such a stage could be built in Germany and thus assure a large German industrial role in the program. Without such a role, DLR has said, German support for Ariane 6 might not be forthcoming.

The story above says that France is willing to negotiate with Germany over this, but if they do, they guarantee that Ariane 6 will be a costly rocket to build, making it very unattractive to satellite customers.

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Replacing the Russian-made rocket engines used by the Atlas 5 and Antares rockets would take about four years, according to a industry analysis.

9:03 am

Replacing the Russian-made rocket engines used by the Atlas 5 and Antares rockets would take about four years, according to Aerojet Rocketdyne.

The company presently refurbishes the Russian engines used by Antares, and is building a host of other engines for other rockets.

In related news, ULA has begun considering shifting some of its military launches from the Atlas 5 to the Delta family of rockets. The company has also released previously undisclosed pricing information for its bulk buy military launches.

Michael Gass, chief executive of Denver-based ULA, said the company’s average per-launch price to the U.S. government is $225 million, a figure that includes the block buy contract as well as pre-existing launch backlog. That figure represents the combined value of the contracts divided by the number of missions.

That $225 million figure, though far less than previously believed, is a little more than twice what SpaceX says it would charge for a comparable launch.

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Aerojet Rocketdyne has signed a contract to provide rocket engine’s for the upper stage of Stratolaunch’s air-launched rocket.

9:13 am

The competition heats up: Aerojet Rocketdyne has signed a contract to provide rocket engine’s for the upper stage of Stratolaunch’s air-launched rocket.

This company press release is packed full of new information about Stratolaunch’s rocket. For one, the entire package has been named the Eagles Launch System, with the air-launched upper stage called Thunderbolt. For another, they have a scheduled launch date set for 2018.

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The private effort to reactivate ISEE-3, a 1970s NASA spacecraft in orbit around the sun, has successfully detected the spacecraft.

9:00 am

The private effort to reactivate ISEE-3, a 1970s NASA spacecraft in orbit around the sun, has successfully detected the spacecraft.

Unfortunately the signal is a little weaker than we expected, and it’s also odd that it fades out toward the end of this capture (it returns and fades in subsequent ones too). Again, this is all very preliminary data done tonight on a rush basis. Much more detail to follow.

They don’t have a lot of time to detect, re-establish contact, and get the spacecraft into the necessary orbit for research. Orbital mechanics give them only through July to do this before it will be too late.

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The next Falcon 9 commercial launch, scrubbed from early May, has now been rescheduled to June 11.

8:47 am

The next Falcon 9 commercial launch, scrubbed from early May, has now been rescheduled to June 11.

This new date is a significant slip in the schedule, as they originally announced only a two week delay, and this adds on another two weeks. The original announced reason for the scrub was umbilical connection issues, but a commenter here at Behind The Black says it might have been something more serious, “a helium pressurization bottle burst in the stage.”

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Sierra Nevada has successfully completed wind tunnel tests a several scale models of their winged spacecraft Dream Chaser.

8:38 am

The competition heats up: Sierra Nevada has successfully completed wind tunnel tests a several scale models of their winged spacecraft Dream Chaser.

It appears from these tests that the spacecraft’s design works better than expected during ascent and re-entry.

The article also gives a quick overview of the status of all three commercial companies, and from this it really looks to me as if Boeing is the least aggressive in pursuing its construction effort. This is merely an impression, and not to be taken too seriously, but it really does look like Boeing is playing the public relations game, doing as little work as possible while trying to garner the most publicity while waiting for the award of the contract.

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The launch failure Thursday of a Russian Proton rocket is putting the squeeze on the commercial satellite industry.

9:45 am

The competition heats up: The launch failure Thursday of a Russian Proton rocket is putting the squeeze on the commercial satellite industry.

Periodically I am told by launch industry experts that the launch industry doesn’t have sufficient demand or capacity for more launch companies. It was this logic, for example, that prompted Boeing and Lockheed Martin to combine into ULA and do a bulk buy with the Air Force. Otherwise, they claimed, they didn’t have enough business to compete with each other and stay in business.

This article above puts the lie to these claims. Not only is there plenty of demand, companies like SpaceX would probably up their fees if they wanted to because the supply does not even come close to meeting the demand. In fact, satellite companies want to get their satellites into orbit and can’t because of a shortage of launch services.

This shortage is an opportunity, not only for the companies that exist but for any new companies trying to get started, such as Stratolaunch. Rather than sit on their hands, as have Boeing and Lockheed Martin, an ambitious and competitive effort here could win market share and make lots of money.

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Virgin Galactic pretty much admits that SpaceShipTwo will fly to only fifty miles altitude, not 62 (100 kilometers).

9:30 am

Virgin Galactic pretty much admits that SpaceShipTwo will fly to only fifty miles altitude, not 62 (100 kilometers).

The admission came in response to the rumors that say the spacecraft will even have trouble reach 50 miles.

Though the company is making a hard PR effort to dispel the negative rumors that are swirling about in the press, the only way they will really succeed at this is to begin actual test flights, something that has not happened, as they have promised repeatedly since the first powered flight last year.

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The assembly of Boeing’s CST-100 manned spacecraft is expected to begin soon.

9:25 am

The competition heats up: The assembly of Boeing’s CST-100 manned spacecraft is expected to begin soon.

Boeing takes over the OPF-3 lease in late June 2014 following an official handover ceremony from Space Florida. Assembly begins soon thereafter. … “The pieces are coming one by one from all over the country,” Ferguson explained. “Parts from our vendors are already starting to show up for our test article. “Assembly of the test article in Florida starts soon.”

Granted, Boeing’s lease for its assembly space at Kennedy has not yet started, but the vagueness of the assembly start date is a bit curious, and suggests that Boeing won’t begin assembly until they know they have won the contract from NASA, the announcement of which is presently scheduled for late summer 2014.

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The Air Force has hired the Aerospace Corporation to evaluate how long it will take to replace the Russian engine used by the Atlas 5 rocket.

9:16 am

Government dithering: The Air Force has hired the Aerospace Corporation to evaluate how long it will take to replace the Russian engine used by the Atlas 5 rocket.

“I see numbers all over the map,” [Ray Johnson, vice president at Aerospace] said May 14 during the World Space Risk Forum here. “Some people say they could do it in five years. Others estimate it’s going to be longer than that, and that it could be eight.” Aerospace Corp. work evaluating what it would take to develop a hydrocarbon engine to replace the RD-180 — if U.S.-Russia relations sour to the point where the engine is no longer available or wanted — “is literally just a few weeks old,” Johnson said.

Time is critical on this issue. It seems to me a better thing to do would be to immediately issue of Request for Proposals, which would quickly tell the Air Force what the American aerospace industry has to offer. They could then proceed right to construction, rather than studying the issue endlessly beforehand.

Moreover, why isn’t Lockheed Martin doing something about this? It is their rocket that is dependent on the Russians. Why is it the Air Force’s responsibility to save them?

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Want to fly into space? All you have to do is “build the future” and win the Hackaday Prize.

4:32 pm

Want to fly into space? All you have to do is “build the future” and win the Hackaday Prize.

You’re probably wondering what you’re actually supposed to build? We’ve been vague up to this point on purpose, because spouting specific categorization stifles creativity. We want you to Build the Future — not fit inside of a tiny box made of disqualifying restraints. … The only requirements you really have to hit are quite simple:

  • You must actually build something
  • It must involve some type of electronics that are connected to something
  • Our main requirements have to do with documentation. This includes lists of parts, schematics, images, and videos. Remember, Openness is a Virtue.

The winner gets just under $200K to buy a ticket on the commercial space carrier of their choice. Or they can cash it in. Numerous additional prizes will also be awarded.

Hat tip to commenter Eric who says he has entered, is not building a rocket engine “that seems to be in demand all of a sudden,” but is building something that is “out there” nonetheless.

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In a sweeping election victory on Friday India voted a new pro-business party and prime minister into power.

9:05 am

India goes capitalist: In a sweeping election victory on Friday India voted a new pro-business prime minister into power.

The victory was a landslide, including a major sweep in parliament.

The long entrenched but now defeated Congress Party had begun moving away from socialism back in 1991, which produced a booming economy for India.

Prime Minister Singh launched reforms in 1991 as finance minister that opened India’s socialist economy to global capital, but his spell in the top job ended marred by corruption and a floundering economy amid mounting policy paralysis. He has already bid farewell to his staff after ten years in office.

The new leader, Narendra Modi, is expected to accelerate this effort.

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Debris from the Proton launch failure yesterday has been found in China.

8:20 am

Debris from the Proton launch failure yesterday has been found in China.

The vagueness of yesterday’s Russia reports suggested to me the possibility that the rocket might have fallen into another country’s territory, something the Russians would normally not like to advertise. It appears, however, that most of the satellite and rocket has burned up before hitting the ground.

This report clarifies some details about the failure. It was the Proton’s third stage that failed, not the Briz-M stage that has caused failures in the past. This is also the 6th failure of a Proton since December 2010, a poor launch record that strongly indicates serious quality control problems in the manufacture of this rocket.

Update: Inmarsat, one of the Proton rocket’s biggest customers, is considering dumping the Proton for future launches. To do so will be expensive and will likely delay the launch of their next two satellites, both of which were scheduled for launch on a Proton in 2014. Nonetheless, it appears they are considering it.

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A Russian Proton rocket crashed today nine minutes after launch.

6:19 pm

When it rains it pours: A Russian Proton rocket crashed today nine minutes after launch.

Considering the tensions between the U.S. and Russia over space, combined with the increasing competition for the launch market created by SpaceX’s lower prices, another Proton failure now is something the Russians could do without. Moreover, the Russians were planning a lot of Proton launches in the next few months to catch up from last year’s launch failure. Many of these scheduled launches were commercial and were going to earn them hard cash. This failure definitely hurts, and will certainly be used as justification by their government in increase its control over that country’s aging aerospace industry.

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In an effort to reassure its ticketholders, Virgin Galactic sent them email on May 10 disputing the story that they have discovered cracks in WhiteKnightTwo.

10:29 am

In an effort to reassure its ticketholders, Virgin Galactic sent them an email on May 10 disputing the article that said there are cracks in WhiteKnightTwo’s wings.

The email was interestingly sent before the article was published, which of course meant that it could not directly address any of its findings.

The story above also has a link to an article detailing the many predictions by Virgin Galactic about when they will begin commercial flights, going back to 1999. To put it mildly, their track record has not been good.

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On Tuesday Virgin Galactic rolled WhiteKnightTwo out of its hanger “as part of a gearing up process.”.

8:23 am

Is it cracked or not? On Tuesday Virgin Galactic rolled WhiteKnightTwo out of its hanger “as part of a gearing up process.”.

Though the above article is very vague about what is being done, this article explains that they are doing taxi tests of new landing gear. The timing, however, makes me suspect that this is also a public relations ploy to counter yesterday’s reports about cracks in the vehicle’s wings.

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Though they really don’t need it, a private effort to reactivate a 1970s spacecraft has now gotten NASA’s okay.

10:34 am

Though they really don’t need it, a private effort to reactivate a 1970s spacecraft has now gotten NASA’s okay.

This piece of paper from NASA is a definite nice-to-have, given that “a private entity cannot legally salvage U.S. government property in space,” according to Mike Gold, a space law expert and attorney who works full time as the head of Washington operations for Bigelow Aerospace, the North Las Vegas, Nevada, company developing inflatable space habitats with technology licensed from NASA.

But practically speaking, it appears NASA could have done little to stop the ISEE-3 Reboot project from moving ahead with its plan to take over the old spacecraft — an Earth-Sun observatory that launched to the gravitationally stable Earth-Sun Lagrange point 1 in 1978 and is now swinging back toward the home planet in the heliocentric orbit NASA nudged it into in 1982 to chase comets.

What is really more important is that their effort to raise the necessary private funds for this project has largely succeeded.

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Russia fights back

9:50 am

Much has been made about the sanctions the Obama administration has imposed on any cooperation with Russia due to the situation in Ukraine and how those sanctions might damage the commercial and manned space efforts of the United States.

So far, all evidence has suggested that the sanctions have little teeth. The Obama administration exempted ISS from the sanctions. It also appears to be allowing the shipment of all commercial satellites to Russia for launch. Even a court injunction against using Russia rocket engines in U.S. military launches was lifted when the Obama administration asked the judge to do so.

The Russians now have responded. Why do I take their response more seriously?
» Read more

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