Margarita Sipatova – Du Hast
An evening pause: Cover of a song by the German band Rammstein.
Hat tip Alton Blevins.
Tag: commercial
The global launch industry in 2023: A record third year in a row of growth, with dark clouds lurking
In 2023 the world saw a continuing rise in the global launch industry. As happened in 2021 and 2022, the record for the most launches in a single year was smashed. In 2023 nations and companies managed to complete more than 200 launches for the first time ever, with the number of launch failures so small you could count them on one hand.
Furthermore, if the predictions by several companies and nations come true, 2024 will be an even greater success. These predictions however all depend on everything continuing as it has, and there are many signs this is not going to be the case. More and more it appears the political world will act to interfere with free world of private enterprise, in some cases intentionally, in others indirectly.
Let us begin by taking a look at 2023.
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Don McLean β Vincent
An evening pause: I’ve posted McLean singing this song previously, but it is worth watching again. A beautiful song to begin the year. The words that matter:
Now I think I know
What you tried to say to me
And how you suffered for your sanity
And how you tried to set them freeThey would not listen, they’re not listening still
Perhaps they never will
Hat tip Judd Clark.
The Choral Scholars of University College Dublin – Auld Lang Syne
An evening pause: As the New Year will arrive over the weekend, let’s celebrate the New Year now. Happy New Year to all my readers! Thank you all for your support, that in the end made this year the most successful since this website was founded. May the future bring us all joy and happiness, despite the mad ones around us.
Hat tip Alton Blevins.
SpaceX successfully completes static fire tests of both Superheavy and Starship
SpaceX today successfully completed static fire tests on both Superheavy and Starship prototypes intended to fly on its next orbital test flight.
The video at the link is four hours long. The Starship engine burn occurs at 1 hour 15 minutes and lasts about five seconds. The Superheavy burn takes place at 2 hours 42 minutes, and lasts about ten seconds. Both burns appeared to operate exactly as planned, though obviously an inspection of the launchpad under Superheavy will have to take place to see if its deluge system operated as intended.
Once again, SpaceX is demonstrating that it will be ready to go for the third orbital test launch of this rocket in mere weeks. Based on these tests today as well as past operations, it seems that all the company needs to do now is stack Starship on top of Superheavy, do another dress rehearsal countdown, and then go.
It won’t however. There is no word from the FAA on when it will issue a launch permit. Based on the previous launch, it will likely not issue the permit when SpaceX says it has completed its investigation of the last launch and is ready to fly again. Instead it will take another month or two writing up its own report (which will essentially reword what SpaceX has told it). Then, once the FAA is finished only then will the Fish and Wildlife Service begin to write up its report (as happened in the fall), causing further delays.
I repeat my prediction from November: No launch until March, at the earliest. The federal government continues to stand in the way of progress, and freedom.
Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.
SpaceX completes its second launch in less than 3 hours at Cape Canaveral
SpaceX tonight launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral less than three hours after a Falcon Heavy lifted off from its second launchpad at Cape Canaveral, carrying an X-37B mini-shuttle.
The first stage successfully completed its twelfth flight, landing safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
96 SpaceX
65 China
19 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 110 to 65, and the entire world combined 110 to 102. SpaceX in turn trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 96 to 102.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket launches the Space Force’s X-37B
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket tonight successfully launched one of the two X-37B reuseable mini-shuttles in the Space Force’s fleet, lifting off from Cape Canaveral.
This was the seventh X-37B flight. It is not clear which of the two vehicles was flying, and how many flights it has completed previously. The previous X-37B flight stayed in orbit for a record 908 days, landing safely in November 2022.
The two side boosters completed their fifth flight, landing safely back at Cape Canaveral. The center core was treated as expendable, and was not recovered.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
95 SpaceX (with another launch scheduled later tonight)
65 China
19 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 109 to 65, and the entire world combined 109 to 102. SpaceX in turn trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 95 to 102.
Mike & The Mechanics – Silent Running
An evening pause: Performed live 2011.
Hat tip Diane Zimmerman.
Japan’s space agency JAXA schedules next H3 rocket launch
JAXA, Japan’s space agency, announced today that it has now scheduled the next test launch of its new H3 rocket for February 15, 2024.
This rocket, built by Mitsubishi for JAXA, is supposed to replace the H2A rocket, which completed its last launch in September 2023. The H3 was supposed to be flying years ago, but has experienced numerous engineering problems throughout its development. It was initially supposed to launch in 2020, but was first delayed to 2021 because of “engine issues,” which were later described as cracks and holes in the engine’s combustion chamber.
That launch date was never met. When JAXA was gearing up to launch in 2022 news sources revealed another yearlong delay until 2023 because of new engine problems, which appeared to require a complete engine redesign.
Then in February 2023 the rocket’s first launch attempt was aborted at T-0 when the two strap-on solid rocket boosters failed to ignite. A second launch attempt a month later failed when the second stage failed during launch.
Even if the rocket successfully launches in February, it still leaves Japan far behind the rest of the space-faring industry. The H3 is entirely expendable, and is far more expensive to launch than the new reuseable rockets in use or being developed by numerous private American companies or other nations. JAXA says it hopes to launch it six times a year, but I can’t imagine it getting even a third that number of customers.
What Japan’s government really needs to do is to get the launch business away from JAXA completely. Let other companies besides Mitsubishi build their own rockets and have JAXA buy their services, rather than try to design its own rockets. This system is working marvelously in the U.S., so much so that India is now aggressively trying to copy it, while communist China has made its own pseudo attempt, somewhat successfully, to do the same for the past five years.
Elthin – Je vivroie liement
An evening pause: Written by Guillaume de Machaut in the 14th century. The title means “I should lead a happy life.” For a full translation go here. The players are clearly using instruments designed and built to match the traditional instruments used when this song was played.
Hat tip Alton Blevins.
JoΜhann JoΜhannsson – A Sparrow Alighted Upon Our Shoulder
An evening pause: Seems appropriately contemplative following the holiday season.
Hat tip Ferris.
Record-setting Falcon 9 1st stage booster lost after landing
The SpaceX Falcon 9 first stage booster that launched on December 23, 2023 for a record-setting nineteenth time was damaged beyond repair when, after landing on its drone ship successfully, experienced rough seas that caused it to fall over.
The picture at the link shows the crushed booster on its side on the drone ship. SpaceX noted the spectacular history of this booster in a separate tweet:
This one reusable rocket booster alone launched to orbit 2 astronauts and more than 860 satellites β totaling 260+ metric tons β in ~3.5 years.
In a sense, it actually put more mass into orbit that a Saturn 5 rocket, for significant less money though over a much longer period of time.
For SpaceX the loss of this booster is hardly a set back, because it has several other boosters with only a few less total launches in its fleet. Expect one to exceed twenty launches in the near future.
Hat tip to out stringer Jay as well as several readers.
Stonebriar Orchestra and Choir – O Come O Come Emmanuel
An evening pause: We started the Christmas holiday season with this carol. We shall now end with it. As always, all the best to our Christian brethren on this day, one of their most sacred holidays.
Hat tip Judd Clark.
Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol
A Christmas pause: As I have done now for several years on Christmas day, I bring you the classic 1951 version of Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, starring Alastair Sim. Still by far the best adaption of the book and a truly wonderful movie.
And as I noted in a previous year:
Dickens did not demand the modern version of charity, where it is imposed by governmental force on everyone. Instead, he was advocating the older wiser concept of western civilization, that charity begins at home, that we as individuals are obliged as humans to exercise good will and generosity to others, by choice.
It is always a matter of choice. And when we take that choice away from people, we destroy the good will that makes true charity possible.
It is also most important that we all heed the words of Christmas Present: βThis boy is ignorance, this girl is want. Beware them both, but most of all beware this boy.ββ
SpaceX launches two German military radar satellites
SpaceX today successfully launched two German military radar surveillance satellites, completing a planned three-satellite constellation, with its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.
The first stage completed its eighth flight, landing back at Vandenberg.
This launch almost certainly in the past would have launched on a Arianespace rocket, but Arianespace presently has no operational rocket, its Ariane-5 rocket retired and its Ariane-6 rocket not yet operational. Furthermore, its Vega and Vega-C rockets are grounded due to launch failures, and its partnership with Russia ended with Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. Thus, SpaceX gets the business, being less expensive than ULA (which also has no rockets available right now to handle this launch) and there being no other company capable of launching such a payload.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
94 SpaceX
61 China
18 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 108 to 61, and the entire world combined 108 to 97. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 94 to 97.
SpaceX launches 23 Starlink satellites
Early on December 23, 2023 SpaceX successfully launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.
The first stage successfully completed its 19th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. This reuse was new record. In fact, the reuse numbers of SpaceX’s fleet Falcon 9 first stages are beginning to resemble the reuse numbers of NASA’s shuttle fleet, and are doing so in a significantly shorter period of time and for a lot less money.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race remain the same:
93 SpaceX
61 China
18 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 107 to 61, and the entire world combined 107 to 97. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 93 to 97.
Trans-Siberian Orchestra – Christmas Eve/Sarajevo
An evening pause: Makes me think of Disney’s Peter Pan (1953) and Miyazaki’s My Neighbor Totoro (1988), about how some things only children can see.
Hat tip Judd Clark.
Firefly successfully launches for the second time in 2023
Alpha seven seconds after liftoff
UPDATE #2: According to a Firefly tweet on X, the second stage failed to fire its second burn. The satellite however was deployed, communications established, and mission operations started. Though its orbit will decay prematurely, it appears the customer, the Space Force, will achieve most of its mission objectives. This should be considered a successful launch, albeit not one that Firefly will want to repeat in this manner.
UPDATE: It appears the upper stage might have had a problem in its final engine burn intended to circularize the orbit for deployment. Either the burn failed to occur, or did not fire correctly. See this tweet. (Hat tip Jay.) I have found other reports that indicate the same question.
The question now is whether this is considered a successful launch. One of its main tasks was to demonstrate fast assembly and prelaunch procedures, for the Space Force. This was accomplished. If the satellite cannot function however is isn’t a full success. I will wait for more information before deciding whether to remove it from the launch stats.
Original post:
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Firefly today successfully completed its second launch in 2023, its third launch overall, its Alpha rocket lifting off from its launchpad at Vandenberg in California.
With this launch Firefly also met its launch prediction for 2023, two launches. The mission was its second for the Space Force this year, both designed to test quick launch procedures. As of posting the payload has not been deployed.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race remain the same:
92 SpaceX
61 China
18 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 106 to 61, and the entire world combined 106 to 97. SpaceX still trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 92 to 97.
The Fendertones – Little Saint Nick
An evening pause: A nice cover of the Beach Boys classic.
Hat tip Alton Blevins.
ULA’s Vulcan rocket fully stacked for the first time
The landing site for Astrobotic’s Peregrine lunar lander
In preparation for its targeted January 8, 2024 launch, ULA’s Vulcan rocket has now been fully stacked for first time in its assembly building at Cape Canaveral.
ULA’s new rocket has rolled between its vertical hangar and the launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station several times for countdown rehearsals and fueling tests. But ULA only needed the Vulcan rocket’s first stage and upper stage to complete those tests. The addition of the payload shroud Wednesday marked the first time ULA has fully stacked a Vulcan rocket, standing some 202 feet (61.6 meters) tall, still surrounded by scaffolding and work platforms inside its assembly building.
It will next be rolled to the launchpad for some final checks prior to launch on January 8, 2023. Unlike most first launches, it carries a real payload, Astrobotic’s Peregrine lunar lander, which hopes to softly place several NASA and commercial payloads near the Gruithuisen Domes in the northwest quadrant of the Moon’s visible hemisphere, as shown on the map above.