April 28, 2016 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold. Discussed the SpaceX proposal to send Dragon to Mars, as well as the ramifications of SpaceX’s first Air Force launch contract.
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Tag: commercial
John Prine – Hello in there
An evening pause: Hat tip Peter Fenstermacher.
SpaceX gets its first official Air Force contract
The competition heats up: On April 27 the Air Force made it official and announced that SpaceX has won its first military contract, breaking ULA’s launch monopoly.
This contract award really isn’t a surprise, as SpaceX had been certified by the Air Force as a qualified bidder, and ULA had declined to bid on this particular contract, leaving SpaceX as the Air Force’s only possible contractor.
Update: The Air Force has admitted that SpaceX’s $83 million price is 40% less than what ULA has typically charged for a comparable launch, confirming what Elon Musk and SpaceX (and many others, including myself back in 2005) have claimed all along, that the Air Force’s EELV bulk buy (giving ULA an Air Force launch monopoly) was a bad idea, discouraging innovation, forcing costs up, and guaranteed to force the government to spend a lot of unnecessary extra money.
I must add that it is definitely worthwhile reading my UPI column from 2005 again, now, more than a decade later. I predicted quite accurately what has subsequently happened following the merger of Lockheed Martin and Boeing to form ULA.
Another successful launch for India
The competition heats up: India has successfully launched its seventh home-built GPS satellite, completing their GPS constellation.
The seven first-generation satellites have been launched over a three-year period, starting with the deployment of IRNSS-1A in July 2013. ISRO has launched all of the satellites itself using the PSLV rocket. The flight number for Thursdayโs launch was PSLV C33, which saw the vehicle fly in its most powerful configuration, the PSLV-XL. This version of the PSLV was introduced in October 2008 with the launch of the Chandrayaan-1 lunar probe, and features more powerful solid rocket boosters than the standard PSLV, increasing the amount of payload it can carry into orbit.
Meanwhile, they are gearing up for the first test flight of the engineering prototype of their reusuable spaceplane.
Billy Joel and Michael Pollack – New York State of Mind
An evening pause: Hat tip Frank Kelly. As Frank emailed me, “Student Michael Pollack asks Billy Joel if he can accompany him on piano, playing New York State of Mind. Billy Joel accepts and asks, “What key do you play it in.” Pollack: “What key do you want it in?” Just from that Joel can tell he can play, then Pollack starts playing, and this is important, when he starts, Joel instantly knows he’s [good]. Perhaps he realizes he might be a reason this kid learned piano. Joel is a bit amazed, watch it, he relaxes and just lets Pollack do his thing; he even makes a flamboyant point of putting his sunglasses on.๏ปฟ”
Or as Joel says at the end, “The guy’s got chops.” Stick with it, it only gets better.
Tallest tunnel slide to open in London
A reason to go to London: The world’s tallest tunnel slide, almost 600 feet long and 250 feet high, is being built as part of a sculpture that was part of the 2012 Olympic games location.
Once complete, the slide will be 178-m (584-ft) long and 76-m (249-ft) high, making it, according to the ArcelorMittal Orbit, the “world’s tallest and longest tunnel slide.” Riders will experience 12 twists and turns, including a tight corkscrew section called the “bettfeder,” which is German for “bedspring.” The slide ends with a 50-m (164-ft) straight stretch to the ground.
It is estimated that it will take about 40 seconds for people to descend the slide, with riders expected to hit speeds of up to 15 mph (24 km/h). On the way down, there will be dark sections, as well as points where it will be possible for riders to see out of transparent polycarbonate windows, providing brief views out over the Olympic Park and surrounding areas.
Dragon to go to Mars in 2018
The competition heats up: Though no details have yet been released, SpaceX has announced through its twitter feed that they plan to send a Dragon to Mars by 2018.
This is not really a surprise, as rumors have been circulating literally for years of Musk’s Martian goals. Nor am I doubtful they can do it. What is important about this announcement is that it suggests that they are now confident that the delays for the first Falcon Heavy launch are mostly over, and that it will happen in the fall as presently planned. With this rocket they will have the launch capability to do a test flight to Mars.
Colin Hay – I just don’t think I’ll ever get over you
An evening pause: Performed live in Vancouver, 2010.
Hat tip Edward Thelen.
April 25, 2016 Zimmerman Space Show appearance
My appearance on the Space Show yesterday is now available as a podcast. I strongly recommend people listen to it, especially the first hour. During that section I compared at length the cost and practicality of the Falcon Heavy with SLS/Orion, and noted how badly Congress and Presidents from both parties have served the American people these past twenty years in mismanaging our aerospace industry.
David Livingston called it a rant, and criticized me for it during the show, but I think the time has come for more Americans to rage in horror at the foolishness and possible corruption of our elected leaders in Washington.
A close look at Falcon 9’s reusable cost savings
Link here.
The analysis is interesting and thoughtful, though some of the negative comments quoted from a former NASA engineer only illustrate why NASA was unable to do this very well. Moreover, these comments from Arianespace’s chief suggest that Arianespace doesn’t understand basic economics.
Arianespace Chief Executive Stephane Israel, in an April 23 briefing at Europeโs Guiana Space Center here on the northeast coast of South America, said Europeโs launch sector can only guess at how much SpaceX will need to spend to refurbish its Falcon 9 first stages. Israel said European assessments of reusability have concluded that, to reap the full cost benefits, a partially reusable rocket would need to launch 35-40 times per year to maintain a sizable production facility while introducing reused hardware into the manifest.
…Israelโs argument, which he has made before, is that even if first stages can be recovered and refurbished in a cost-effective way, the launch rate needed for maximum cost savings โ and hence price reductions to customers โ is beyond Europeโs reach. The only nations today whose governments are launching sufficiently often to reach those rates are the United States and China, and even these government markets may be insufficient, in and of themselves, to close the business case.
The customer base is not static. If you lower the price, the customer base grows, a fact that Elon Musk understands and which has been driving his effort from day one.
Airbus Safran joint rocket venture moving forward
The competition heats up: According to the head of Safran, their joint venture with Airbus to build Europe’s next rocket, Ariane 6, is on schedule to begin full operations by July 1.
He said in a press teleconference that the issues both with the French tax authorities and with the European Union about the merger are being resolved.
New smallsat rocket company obtains financing
The competition heats up: A new rocket company, Vector Space Systems, has announced that it has obtained seed money to begin the development of a new rocket for launch very small satellites.
Vector is designed to provide dedicated launches of very small spacecraft. The vehicle is capable of placing satellites weighing up to 45 kilograms into a basic low Earth orbit, and 25 kilograms into a standard sun synchronous orbit. Those launches will cost $2โ3 million each, with the higher price reserved for โfirst classโ launches reserved as little as three months in advance.
This rocket would compete with Virgin Galactic’s LauncherOne and Rocket Lab’s Electron for the smallsat and cubesat business.
Problems at Stratolaunch?
In the heat of competition: Vulcan Aerospace, the company building the giant Stratolaunch airplane designed launch orbital rockets from its underbelly, does not yet have a rocket for this purpose.
Originally that rocket was to be built by SpaceX, but that partnership ended in 2012.
Stratolaunch then contracted out its rocket work to Orbital Sciences Corp. (now Orbital ATK). The company also contracted with Aerojet Rocketdyne for six RL10C-1 rocket engines with an option for six more for use in the launch vehicle’s third stage.
The agreement with Orbital ended without the production of a launch vehicle, with Beames saying the rocket was not economical. Stratolaunch officials said they were reassessing the project in light of the shift in the market recently toward smaller satellites.
In 2015, Beames said that Stratolaunch was examining more than 70 launch vehicles for use with the Stratolaunch aircraft. He indicated that the company might use multiple launch vehicles to serve different payload classes. Beames said the company would announce its launch vehicle strategy in fall 2015, but that time came and went with no announcement. [emphasis mine]
It is very worrisome for them to be hunting for a rocket at this point of design. I am reminded of Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo, which changed engine designs midstream, causing them enormous engineering problems and delays.
Soyuz successfully launches from French Guiana
After several launch delays, including a scrub because of a problem with the rocket’s navigation system, Arianespace successfully used a Russian Soyuz rocket to launch five satellites in a variety of orbits.
Nirvana – Lithium
An evening pause: I must admit that the hard rock music of Kurt Cobain has interested me so little that, until this video was suggested to me, I had never listened to it. Though the music itself doesn’t do much for me personally, the lyrics and the history of the song were quite surprising. To quote from the second link,
Cobain said the song is about a man who, after the death of his girlfriend, turns to religion “as a last resort to keep himself alive. To keep him from suicide.” While Cobain said the narrative of “Lithium” was fictional, he said, “I did infuse some of my personal experiences, like breaking up with girlfriends and having bad relationships.” Cobain acknowledged that the song was possibly inspired in part by the time he spent living with his friend Jesse Reed and his born-again Christian parents. He explained to Azerrad, “I’ve always felt that some people should have religion in their lives [. . .] That’s fine. If it’s going to save someone, it’s okay. And the person in [‘Lithium’] needed it.”
The song was published in 1992. I suspect that even Cobain would be considered evil by the today’s modern generation for daring to express positive thoughts about religion.
Hat tip Wayne Devette.
Isabelle Druet – Ah que j’aime les militaires!
An evening pause: By Offenbach. The humor of this song, the title of which in English is “Ah, how I love the military!”, is sadly lost on us English-speakers, but you can sense it from the singer’s wonderful performance.
Hat tip Edward Thelen.
Orbital ATK negotiating lease for part of VAB
The competition heats up: Orbital ATK has begun negotiations with NASA for possibly leasing part of the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) for use in connection with a military rocket.
Virginia-based Orbital ATK is one of two rocket companies that launch resupply missions to the International Space Station, but this deal would not involve those missions or that rocket, the companyโs Antares. The Antares launches from NASAโs space port at Wallops Island, Va., carrying the Orbital ATK Cygnus capsule.
The new rocket that Orbital ATK hopes to develop and one day assemble in the VAB would be a medium- to heavy-lift rocket.The planned rocket currently referred to by the name the Air Force set for it, the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle-class rocket.
It sounds like Orbital ATK is putting together a bid to compete for the Air Force rocket contract, and needs to get a handle on the costs for using the VAB at Kennedy in order to make the offer credible.
Foo Fighters – Times like these
An evening pause: Video of the recording session.
Hat tip Wayne DeVette.
Want to live in a hobbit-hole? You can!
Link here. The article shows a collection of underground homes inspired by The Hobbit, including several whose designs are available for either purchase or construction.
Rodgers and Hammerstein – Oklahoma!
An evening pause: From the 1955 movie, Oklahoma. This Broadway musical is one of the best examples of the fundamental differences between American culture and what preceded it. In the past, all music, drama, fiction, etc, revolved around telling the stories of the powerful, the nobility, the rulers, and the great. In the United States, “of the people, for the people, by the people,” literature, art, drama, and music has focused instead mostly on the lives and concerns of ordinary people. In this musical, for example, the story is about how two ordinary cowpokes decide to give up their roaming ways to settle down and become farmers, all for love. And in doing so, Rodgers and Hammerstein end up also telling the story of the American west as it transitioned from the wild west of gold rush boom towns and cattle drive cowboys into a settled society of cities and families.
And the music and choreography is great too!
Hat tip Edward Thelen.