Isaacman’s Polaris Dawn mission to launch July 31, 2024

Jared Isaacman
Jared Isaacman

According to a short notice on the Polaris Dawn webpage, Jared Isaacman’s manned orbital mission where he will do the first spacewalk by a private citizen is now targeting a launch date of July 31, 2024.

The four-person mission is planned to spend five days in orbit in SpaceX’s Resilience Dragon capsule, during which it will fly to as high as 870 miles, the highest orbit flown since Gemini 11 in 1966, and the farthest any human has flown from Earth since the Apollo lunar missions. That orbit will make possible some new radiation research:

[T]his is high enough to penetrate the inner band of the radioactive Van Allen Belts that encircle the Earth. This isn’t good for the crew consisting of Mission Commander Jared Isaacman, Mission Pilot Scott Poteet, Mission Specialist Sarah Gillis, and Mission Specialist and Medical Officer Anna Menon, but their initial orbit will be highly elliptical with a lower altitude of 120 miles (190 km), so their exposure will be minimal.

The purpose of this radiological game of chicken is to conduct 38 science experiments to study the effects of spaceflight and space radiation on human health. When these are completed, the altitude for the remainder of the five days in orbit will be reduced to 430 miles (700 km).

Isaacman will then attempt his spacewalk, opening a hatch on Resilience that replaced its docking port. While Isaacman will be the only one to exit the capsule, all four crew members will be in comparable spacesuits, since the capsule has no airlock and thus its entire atmosphere will escape during these activities.

If this mission is successful, I expect Isaacman will renew his push at NASA for making the goal of his next Polaris mission to replace the gyros on the Hubble Space Telescope. At the moment agency officials have expressed skepticism and seem uninterested. That might change however.

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SpaceX gets NASA contract to launch gamma-ray space telescope

NASA yesterday announced that it has awarded SpaceX a contract to launch a new gamma-ray space telescope, dubbed the Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI), using its Falcon 9 rocket and targeting an August 2027 launch date.

The firm-fixed-price contract has a value of approximately $69 million, which includes launch services and other mission related costs. The COSI mission currently is targeted to launch August 2027 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

This wide-field gamma-ray telescope will study energetic phenomena in the Milky Way and beyond, including the creation and destruction of matter and antimatter and the final stages of the lives of stars. NASAโ€™s COSI mission will probe the origins of the Milky Wayโ€™s galactic positrons, uncover the sites of nucleosynthesis in our galaxy, perform studies of gamma-ray polarization, and find counterparts to multi-messenger sources. The compact Compton telescope combines improved sensitivity, spectral resolution, angular resolution, and sky coverage to facilitate groundbreaking science.

The stated launch price gives us a sense of what SpaceX is charging these days for launches. The contract award also illustrates once again why the delays in developing ULA’s Vulcan and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rockets — caused by Blue Origin’s difficulties in manufacturing its BE-4 rocket engine — has ended up costing both companies a lot of money in sales. SpaceX keeps getting these launch contracts because Vulcan and New Glenn are not yet flying operationally. Vulcan has flown once, but it is probably isn’t capable of adding additional launches to is manifest. More important, the rocket is not yet reusable, and probably could not match SpaceX’s price.

As for New Glenn, it supposedly will make its first launch this fall, but we shall see. It remains four-plus years behind schedule, and though it is described as reusable, its first stage landing vertically like a Falcon 9, it is doubtful it will become doing this on its first launches. It needs to prove out its systems first.

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SpaceX launches 20 Starlink satellites

SpaceX early this morning launched another 20 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its sixteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

70 SpaceX
29 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 81 to 44, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 70 to 55.

To get a sense of how incredible SpaceX’s launch pace this year has been, those 70 launches, completed in only days more than first half of the 2024, matches the American record for launches in a entire year, that was set in 1966 and remained the record until 2022.

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SpaceX and China complete launches

Both SpaceX and China completed launches in the past 12 hours. First, SpaceX last night launched a package of National Reconnaissance Office reconnaissance satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its eighth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. The two fairings completed their seventh and thirteenth flights respectively.

Then, early today China launched a new communications satellite, its new Long March 7A rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport. Video of the liftoff can be seen here.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

69 SpaceX
29 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 80 to 43, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 69 to 54.

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European weather satellite company cancels launch contract with Ariane-6, switches to SpaceX

We now know the reason why an Arianespace official on June 26th demanded new legislation requiring all European payloads to launch on European rockets. Today it was revealed that the European weather satellite company Eumetsat has canceled a launch contract on an Ariane-6 rocket and instead switched to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Late yesterday, French news outlet Le Monde reported that the executive committee of Eumetsat, the European meteorological satellite agency, had asked the agencyโ€™s board of directors to cancel a contract it signed with Arianespace four years ago to launch its Meteosat MTG-S1 satellite. The mission would have been flown aboard the third Ariane 6 flight, which is expected to be launched in early 2025. The satellite will now be launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.

Not surprisingly, another French official today — Philippe Baptiste, the head of France’s CNES space agency — once again demanded action to require European companies to use European rockets. In his whining however he revealed an amazing inability to understand why this decision was made.

โ€œHow far will we, Europeans, go in our naivety. … I am impatiently waiting to understand what reasons could have led Eumetsat to such a decision at a time [when] all major European space countries as well as the European Commission are calling for launching European satellites on European launchers.โ€

The reasons why are quite obvious, and if this guy can’t recognize them then there is little hope the European Ciommision will ever figure out how to compete. Not only is the cost for a Falcon 9 launch likely one third that of an Ariane-6, it is a proven launcher. Ariane-6, four years behind schedule, won’t make its first launch until July 9, 2024, assuming all goes as planned. Eumetsat officials probably decided they couldn’t afford the extra cost and risk.

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SpaceX launches 23 Starlink satellites, using a first stage for the 22nd time

SpaceX early this morning launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral and using a first stage on its record-setting 22nd flight.

That stage successfully landed on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The flight was so routinely boring for the launch crew that the flight director felt no need to even bother having anyone do a T-10 second countdown at launch.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

68 SpaceX
28 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 79 to 42, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 68 to 53.

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SpaceX completes two launches today, from opposite coasts

The bunny marches on! SpaceX successfully completed two launches today.

First, its Falcon 9 rocket launched 22 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral in Florida. This was the launch that had been delayed several times by weather, and then by a tecnical launch abort at T-0. After several days of review, it lifted in the morning today with no problems, the first stage completing its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Then, about ten hours later a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off in the evening Vandenberg in California, putting 20 Starlink satellites into orbit, 13 of which are said to be designed for direct cell-to-satellite capabilities. This first stage also completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

This post is a bit late because we had a five hour power outage in my neighborhood tonight, caused apparently when someone drove into a utility pole and knocked it over.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

66 SpaceX
28 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 77 to 42, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 66 to 53.

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SpaceX launches commercial geosynchronous satellite for SES

SpaceX today successfully launched a commercial geosynchronous satellite for the Luxembourg company SES, its Falcon 9 lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its ninth flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

64 SpaceX
27 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 75 to 41, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 64 to 52.

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SpaceX launches 20 Starlink satellites

After a ten day pause in launches, which included one launch abort at T-0, SpaceX yesterday successfully launched 20 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The pause is noteworthy because it is possibly SpaceX’s longest pause in launches this year (I haven’t gone back and checked). Consider this fact: A ten day pause between launches would have once been considered a fast launch pace. Now it seems like something is wrong.

The rocket’s first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

63 SpaceX (with another launch scheduled for later today)
27 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 73 to 41, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 63 to 51.

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SpaceX retrieves its Dragon debris that fell in Canada in February

SpaceX yesterday sent a crew and a U-Haul truck to five different farms in Saskatchewan, Canada, to retrieve eight pieces of debris that came from the service module trunk of a Dragon cargo capsule when the trunk was de-orbited to burn up in the atmosphere in February.

I am certain SpaceX engineers want to find out why this debris survived its fall through the atmosphere, so as to better predict what will happen on future de-orbits. If they determine that more of Dragon’s service module survives re-entry than previously predicted, it will require a rethinking on where such de-orbits are planned, making sure they always occur over the ocean.

It also appears that an academic who doesn’t know much about space engineering showed up during this retrieval to talk to the press and attack SpaceX.

Samantha Lawler, a University of Regina astronomy professor, was at the farm when SpaceX employees arrived on Tuesday. She said SpaceX needs to be transparent about how its operations are affecting the atmosphere, and how incidents like this are dealt with.

Lawler was quoted more fully (and more embarrassingly) in this other news report:

“SpaceX has over 6,000 Starlink satellites in orbit that they claim will burn up completely when they re-enter. That comes to 23 re-entries per-day when they are at full capacity. If those re-entries are all making it to the ground, dropping hundred pound pieces of garbage, that will kill lots of people,โ€ Lawler explained.

To claim that any Starlink satellites are threat to hit the ground proves Lawler knowns nothing about space engineering and is acting merely as a anti-SpaceX “Karen” who wants to harass the company. Starlink satellites are too small to pose a threat. Moreover, SpaceX from day one has acted responsibly to de-orbit them under a controlled manner.

Nonetheless, this incident in Canada suggests that more material from larger orbiting objects can reach the ground, and requires a rethinking as to where to de-orbit them.

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SpaceX completes two Starlink launches hours apart

SpaceX last night completed two Starlink launches hours apart from opposite coasts. First its Falcon 9 rocket took 23 Starlink satellites into orbit, lifting off from Cape Canaveral. The first stage completed its 16th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Then, a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Vandenberg carried 20 Starlink satellites into orbit, its first stage completing its 21st flight (tying the record), landing safely on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

62 SpaceX
27 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 72 to 41, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 62 to 51.

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ESA signs deal with Vast to use its Haven-1 space station

Vast Haven-1 station inside Falcon-9 fairing
Vast Haven-1 station inside Falcon-9 fairing

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the commercial space station startup Vast today signed an agreement that sets the initial terms for ESA to use Vast’s first space station, Haven-1, as well as any space stations to follow.

The agreement outlines the partiesโ€™ intention to foster human spaceflight, science, technology and commercialisation development and explore collaboration in low Earth orbit destinations other than the International Space Station. The collaboration will initially focus on exploring opportunities for access to space for Europe through the Vast Space Stations. These could include:

  • Access to the Vast Space Stations for ESA and its Member States, for astronaut missions and research activities as well as commercial business development.
  • Supporting European industry to supply subsystems and equipment for future Vast Space Stations.
  • Vast making use of future qualified European LEO cargo and/or crew transportation services, at market rates and commercially viable terms and conditions, also as a means for offsetting future ESA Astronaut Missions.
  • Vast and ESA jointly supporting European industry in getting certified for docking to future Vast Space Stations.

This deal is actually a very big deal, as Vast’s Haven-1 space station is the only one under construction that does not have a deal with NASA. It is being financed privately and will at first simply be a one module habitat set to launch as early as August 2025 on a Falcon 9 rocket, with the first 30-day 4-person manned mission to follow almost immediately on a Dragon capsule. Vast’s work is closely linked with SpaceX, as its station also has a deal to use Starlink for communications.

The plan is to add more modules in the coming years to build up to a full station.

This deal not only indicates that this independent station is going to give the NASA-supported stations some real competition, it indicates that Europe is committed to doing the same. Now that Europe has abandoned the government-owned and international cooperation model it has used for decades with decidedly mixed results and switched to the capitalism model, where it is merely a customer buying things from a competing private sector, it is doing so full speed ahead, without any hesitation.

The independence of this station also frees it and its customers from the heavy rules that NASA routinely imposes on anyone who deals with it. This aspect gives Vast a competitive advantage that many will clearly wish to take advantage of.

This deal is therefore a challenge that better be recognized by NASA and the other commercial stations. If they don’t react properly they could find themselves left in the dust completely.

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