Starship orbital test flight delayed one more week due to FAA delays

According to a tweet yesterday by Elon Musk, the first orbital test flight of Starship/Superheavy has been delayed again.

Starship launch trending towards near the end of third week of April

Musk had made it clear in an April 8th tweet the cause of this delay or any other delays:

Starship is ready for launch. Awaiting regulatory approval

Musk needs to be somewhat diplomatic as it will not help him to make federal bureaucrats his enemies. What he is doing here is subtly letting everyone know the sole cause of the delay, in order to press the FAA to get a move on, without saying so directly. He leaves that to others, such as myself, to say it instead.

I fear that the FAA is now demanding that it must look at the data from any wet dress rehearsal countdown, including the short engine burst that Superheavy will likely do at T-0, before it will issue the permit. If so, we could see more than a week delay. The launch should easily slip to late May if not later.

The absurdity of this is that it is utterly pointless for FAA bureaucrats to look at any of this data. What do they know? Nothing. If something was significantly wrong SpaceX engineers would know far sooner, and delay the launch themselves.

The delays seen in issuing this one launch license however give us a nice picture of what it will be like for the launch industry once the moratorium on heavy regulations by the FAA and other federal agencies expires on October 1, 2023. Expect a substantial slowdown in development and launches, with many of the new companies about to become operational instead going bankrupt in a replay of the destruction of Virgin Orbit by the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority.

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Report recommends Congress allow full regulation of commercial human spaceflight

The modern instruction manual for America
The modern instruction manual for America

A new report by the RAND corporation has recommended that Congress allow the moratorium on full regulation of commercial human spaceflight, established by the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 and extended several times, to expire on October 1, 2023.

That recommendation came despite a lack of progress on voluntary standards and key industry metrics. While standards development organizations like ASTM International and ISO have published 20 standards related to commercial spaceflight, the RAND report noted that “companies have yet to clearly or consistently adopt them in a manner that can be confirmed or verified publicly.” A diversity of technical approaches also hinders the development and implementation of standards.

The report also found that while the FAA had developed key industry indicators to assess readiness for adopting safety regulations, there were no goals for those indicators to determine when it was time to implement regulations. “It is, therefore, difficult to assess whether there has been progress toward meeting key industry metrics when there are not clear targets that could be met,” the report concluded.

Despite that lack of progress on standards or metrics, the RAND report nonetheless concluded that allowing the learning period to expire this year was the best approach. Doing so, it argued, would allow FAA and industry to start the process of developing safety regulations in a gradual manner and avoid a rush to regulate imposed by Congress should a high-profile accident take place while the learning period is still in effect.

It also recommended additional resources for the FAA to support that regulatory process, but did not quantify an increase in the budget for or personnel assigned to its Office of Commercial Space Transportation, or AST. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words illustrate the crushing fundamentals of all government regulation. » Read more

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Starship now stacked on launchpad

Starship stacked on top of Superheavy

In preparation for a final wet dress rehearsal countdown followed by its first launch, Starship has now been stacked on top of Superheavy at SpaceX’s launchpad at Boca Chica, Texas.

The picture to the right is a screen capture from a short video Elon Musk posted on Twitter. SpaceX had also tweeted that its “Team is working towards a launch rehearsal next week [April 10-11] followed by Starship’s first integrated flight test ~week later pending regulatory approval.”

At this time the FAA has still not issued the launch license. By announcing its plan to launch the week of April 17th, Musk and SpaceX puts pressure the government bureaucracy to get a move on.

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Axiom sets date for next commercial manned flight to ISS

Axiom and NASA yesterday announced May 8, 2023 as the launch date for the private company’s second commercial flight to ISS, this time carrying three passengers out of a crew of four, two from Saudi Arabia and the third, John Shoffner, completing his second paid flight with Axiom.

Two of its crewmates are Rayyanah Barnawi and Ali AlQarni, members of the first Saudi Arabian astronaut class. Barnawi will become the first Saudi woman ever to reach space, and she and AlQarni will be the first people from the kingdom to travel to the ISS.

Retired NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson will command the mission for Axiom. The Dragon capsule used will be Freedom, making its second flight, lifting off on a Falcon 9 rocket with a new first stage. The plan is to be docked to ISS for ten days, which means for that time period ISS will have three Arab astronauts on board, including the UAE’s astronaut, Sultan Al Neyadi, who is in the middle of a six month mission and is about to do his first spacewalk.

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SpaceX successfully launches Intelsat communications satellite

SpaceX tonight successfully used its Falcon 9 rocket to launch an Intelsat communications satellite into orbit, lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairings completed their second and eighth flights.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

23 SpaceX
14 China
6 Russia
3 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads China 26 to 14 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 26 to 24. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world combined, including American companies, 23 to 27.

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Spaceplane startup flies small-scale prototype for the 1st time using new rocket engine

The startup Dawn Aerospace, based in New Zealand, has now successfully flown a small-scale prototype of its proposed spaceplane using for the first time the company’s Aurora rocket engine.

Mk-II Aurora, a scaled down version of the spaceplane Dawn is developing for commercial operations, took to the skies March 29, 30 and 31 from New Zealand’s Gentanner Aerodrome. The initial test campaign validated key flight systems and demonstrated the benefit of rapid reusability, Dawn CEO Stefan Powell told SpaceNews.

During the first flight, the Mk-II Aurora consumed more fuel than anticipated due to a leak in the propellant system. The next day, Dawn engineers removed the Mk-II Aurora engine, took out the oxidizer tank and found the leak.

These rocket-powered test flights are a follow-up of an earlier test program in 2021 using jet engines. You can get a sense of the scale of the prototype from a picture at this article.

The company plans to fly this prototype to as high as twelve miles later this year before moving on to a larger test version. Eventually it hopes to develop a two-stage orbital system. The details however remain vague. The 2021 release suggested it was building a two-stage-to orbit version that will take off from a runway and then launch small satellites into orbit. These new stories suggest it are presently targeting the suborbital unmanned research market, with the eventual ability to do frequent flights to 70 miles altitude. Launching orbital satellites is presently only a distant goal.

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Shetland Spaceport now faces same regulatory hurdles that destroyed Virgin Orbit

The new Shetland spaceport, Saxavord, is right now attempting to get launch approvals from United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), the same agency that dithered for six months approving a Virgin Orbit launch, thus causing the bankruptcy of that company.

According to Saxavord’s CEO, the spaceport has two launches aiming to launch before the end of this year, assuming the CAA can get its act together and give its approval. This quote however is worrisom:

The Saxavord spaceport says it is “still on track” to receive its necessary licences from the sector’s regulator before the summer. This relates to applications to the Civil Aviation Authority for range and spaceport licences.

Meanwhile SaxaVord CEO Frank Strang said the company is also on track for two rocket launches this year – “albeit they have moved slightly to the right”. [emphasis mine]

The delays could be coming from the rocket companies themselves. One of those companies is the German startup, Rocket Factory Augsburg, which has leased exclusive use of one launchsite. The other is the American startup ABL, which has had one launch attempt from the U.S. that failed.

Based on the CAA’s track record however the delays are just as likely coming from it. The CAA began this licensing process in November 2022, and is not done yet six months later.

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FAA issues travel advisory for Boca Chica for April 10, 2023 Starship launch

Though the FAA has not yet issued the launch license to SpaceX, allowing it to do the first orbital launch test of its Superheavy/Starship rocket, the agency today did issue a travel advisory for the Boca Chica area for April 10-11, 2023, in connection with this launch.

The FAA advisory is here. Scroll down to see the space activities section, which includes this information:

SPACEX STARSHIP SUPERHEAVY BOCA CHICA, TX
PRIMARY: 04/10/23 1310-1745Z
BACKUP(S): 04/11-12/23 1310-1745Z

Based on this information, we should expect the FAA launch license to be publicly announced any moment.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay, who trolls Twitter so I don’t have to.

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English company buys land in Ohio for astronaut training facility

Blue Abyss, an English company focused on establishing “extreme environment research, test, and training centres,” has purchased twelve acres in Ohio where it plans to build an astronaut training facility.

The property, which is near Cleveland’s NASA Glenn Research Center, will include a 164-foot deep pool, microgravity center, astronaut training center, and a hotel. Brook Park Mayor Edward Orcutt described the facility as a “boot camp for astronauts.”

It appears the company is expecting there to be a lot of commercial astronauts in the coming years who will need training, and anticipates that NASA will not be capable of or interested in providing the service.

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Starship and Superheavy readied for orbital flight

With Superheavy prototype #7 already on the launchpad at Boca Chica, Texas, SpaceX engineers yesterday moved Starship prototype #24 beside it in preparation for stacking the orbital spacecraft on top of Superheavy for a launch now expected no earlier than April 10, 2023.

As the article notes, when Superheavy lifts off, it will set a new record for the most powerful rocket, having twice the thrust of either of NASA’s Saturn-5 or SLS rockets. And this record will be achieved by a privately built and owned rocket whose development has been funded almost entirely by private investment capital. Note too that the development took about six years, from concept to first launch, a few years less than it took NASA to build the Saturn-5 in the 1960s, and about one third the time it NASA to do the same thing with SLS in the 2000s, the 2010s, and the 2020s.

The orbital mission, it successful, will have Superheavy lift off, separate from Starship and then land controlled in the Gulf of Mexico. Starship will continue into orbit, and then attempt a controlled vertical splashdown in the Pacific Ocean northwest of the big Island of Hawaii.

At the moment, it appears the only obstacle to launch remains the FAA, which after many months has still not issued the launch license. This new activity at Boca Chica however suggests SpaceX expects that approval to occur momentarily.

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SpaceX and Chinese pseudo-company complete launches

Two launches today. First, a new Chinese pseudo-company, dubbed Space Pioneer, completed the first launch of its liquid kerosene-fueled Tianlong-1 rocket, putting a military surveillance satellite into orbit.

Space Pioneer is the third Chinese pseudo-company to achieve orbit, but the first to do it with a liquid-fueled rocket. The previous two, Ispace and Galactic Energy, used solid-fueled rockets based on military missile technology. All of these Chinese companies follow a private model. An individual or a group of individuals creates the company, obtains private investment capital, and then wins contracts from the Chinese government. What makes them pseudo is that they do not work independently and freely, and really do not own their products. The Chinese government supervises and approves everything, and can take over at any time.

The second launch today was by SpaceX, using its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California to put a new smallsat constellation of ten military satellites, designed to test the quick development (under two years) of such smallsats for use by the military.

The first stage successfully completed its second flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The fairings completed their fourth and sixth flights, respectively.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

22 SpaceX
14 China
6 Russia
3 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads China 25 to 14 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 25 to 24. SpaceX by itself trails the entire world, including American companies, 22 to 27.

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Stratolaunch’s Roc airplane completes another test flight

Stratolaunch today announced that it has successfully completed the third capture-carry test using its giant Roc airplane, carrying an engineering test version of its Talon vehicle, designed to do hypersonic flight tests for the Air Force.

The flight was the tenth for the company’s launch platform Roc and marks the beginning of routine flight operations in Vandenberg Space Force Base’s Western Range off California’s central coast. The flight, which lasted a total of five hours, performed risk reduction by practicing a variety of separation profiles and confirming telemetry between Roc and Talon-A vehicles and Vandenberg Space Force Base’s communication assets, assuring that back-up telemetry data collection will occur during future flight tests.

Pending results of post-flight data analysis, the team will progress toward a separation test in the coming weeks, enabling the company to perform its first hypersonic flight in 2023.

There is a lot of potential test capability for Roc and Talon, not just with hypersonic missiles and aircraft. If Stratolaunch succeeds in fulfilling this Air Force contract, it will likely garner a good amount of additional business.

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