Tag: spaceflight

Musk: Next Starship/Superheavy test launch in mid-March

9:39 am

According to a recent tweet by Elon Musk , the next Starship/Superheavy test launch will occur “in 6 weeks,” placing that launch sometime in mid-March.

Musk provided no other information, but this announcement suggests the company’s engineers now understand and have corrected the issues that caused two Superheavy ruptures during two different tank tests in recent weeks. It also suggests that the launchpad repairs and upgrades will soon be completed, and that a new version 3 Superheavy prototype is ready to go, replacing one that was damaged during those tank tests.

The mission specifics however remain unclear. SpaceX could repeat the flight path of the last few tests, in an orbit low enough so that the atmosphere will bring Starship down over the Indian Ocean. In such a flight the company would test refueling within Starship, restarts of its Raptor engines, and deployment of dummy or even real Starlink satellites.

It is possible however that this next test flight will go into a full orbit, and circle the Earth once or several times. SpaceX has said that in 2026 it intends to do a Starship refueling test using two Starships, launched several weeks apart. To do this more ambitious mission however it first needs to do at least one full orbital flight of Starship. Since the company has already tested on previous orbital test flights the restart of Starship’s Raptor engines — proving its capability to do a controlled re-entry — there really is no reason it can’t go for a full orbit on the next flight. There is even the possibility that Starship will come back to Boca Chica and be caught the company’s tower chopsticks, though this remains unconfirmed.

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Avio gets two new launch contracts for its Vega-C rocket

9:16 am

The Italian rocket company Avio has won two separate launch contracts for its Vega-C rocket, one from Airbus and a second from Brazil.

It also appears that these two contracts are the ones that Avio touted in late December for a total of $117 million, but did not reveal the customers at the time.

First, Brazil’s government will pay Avio $35.6 million to use the Vega-C rocket to launch its Amazonia-1B Earth observation satellite in 2027. This contract was obtained though the launch services company SpaceLaunch and is likely the deal first announced in September without mention of the customer.

Next, Airbus will use the Vega-C in 2028 to launch the first satellite in its Pléiades Neo Next Earth observation satellite constellation. Though the contract price was not announced, it is likely $84.4 million, the difference between the $117 million total for the two contracts and the $35.6 million Brazil is paying.

The price on both launch contracts illustrates how the competition from SpaceX and Rocket Lab is forcing launch costs down. A decade ago launches never cost less than $100 million. Now they always do, and the Brazil price of $35.6 million indicates even lower prices in the future.

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NASA targeting January 31, 2026 for Artemis-2 dress rehearsal countdown

8:25 am

The flight plan for the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon
The flight plan for the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon. Click for original.

NASA engineers are now targeting January 31, 2026 for the manned dress rehearsal countdown of the Artemis-2 SLS rocket and Orion capsule.

The upcoming wet dress rehearsal is a prelaunch test to fuel the rocket. During the rehearsal, teams demonstrate the ability to load more than 700,000 gallons of cryogenic propellants into the rocket, conduct a launch countdown, and practice safely removing propellant from the rocket without astronauts inside the spacecraft.

During several “runs,” the wet dress rehearsal will test the launch team’s ability to hold, resume, and recycle to several different times in the final 10 minutes of the countdown, known as terminal count. The rehearsal will count down to a simulated launch at 9 p.m. EST, but could run to approximately 1 a.m. if needed.

This rehearsal will include the four-person crew inside the Orion capsule, which will once launched take them in a wide ten-day Earth orbit that will swing them past the Moon and then back to Earth. The crew entered quarantine at the end of last week to reduce the chance they will catch any illnesses prior to launch.

This mission carries great risk, as the capsule’s life support system has never been used in space before, while the viability of its heat shield remains questionable.

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NASA makes it official: Oman signs the Artemis Accords

8:01 am

Active and proposed Middle East spaceports
Active and proposed Middle East spaceports

In a press announcement yesterday, NASA officially confirmed that Oman has become the 61st nation to sign the Artemis Accords.

U.S. Ambassador to the Sultanate of Oman Ana Escrogima and NASA’s Deputy Associate Administrator Casey Swails participated in the event held on the opening day of the Middle East Space Conference, an international forum on space and innovation in the region. Said al-Maawali, Oman’s minister of transportation, communication, and information technology signed on behalf of the country.

I had reported early yesterday a story in Oman’s state-run press claiming that its sultan wanted his country to sign the Artemis Accords, a claim put forth by Oman officials during this conference. Apparently that was poor reporting. What actually happened was the event included the official Artemis Accords signing ceremony, which also included a number of other bi-laterial trade agreements.

As I noted yesterday, Oman has been unsuccessful so far in its efforts to bring American rocket and satellite companies to its proposed Duqm spaceport because State Department ITAR regulations, designed to protect American technology from hostile foreign powers, prevent it. This agreement hopefully includes some security guarantees that will ease those regulations and allow such deals.

The full list of all signatories to this American space alliance:
» Read more

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Oman says it wants to sign the Artemis Accords

9:17 am

Middle East, showing Oman's proposed spaceport
The Middle East, showing the location of
Oman’s proposed spaceport at Duqm.

In a diplomatic meeting between Oman and U.S. state department in Oman, Oman officials announced their Sultan wants his country to sign the Artemis Accords.

The two sides discussed means of maximising the benefits of the Free Trade Agreement between the two countries and augmenting American investments in sectors of priority for the Sultanate of Oman. These sectors include the digital economy, technology and space, in addition to mining, logistics, aviation and infrastructure.

Cooperation in the fields of education and culture was also discussed, particularly educational programmes, academic and professional exchange and investment in research and innovation. The two sides further exchanged views and positions on a number of regional and international issues, emphasising the importance of backing efforts for peace, stability and development.

During the dialogue, the Omani side announced the Sultanate of Oman’s approval to join the ‘Artemis Accords’ for space exploration. A cooperation statement on the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America was also signed. [emphasis mine]

Much of this is diplomatic blather, meaning little. While I would expect the Trump administration welcome Oman as an Artemis Accord partner, in the talks related to the highlighted first paragraph above it likely demanded some concessions first. Free trade in Oman is going to require some protection for American technology.

For example, right now State Department rules make it difficult if not impossible to launch American satellites or rockets from Oman’s proposed spaceport in Duqm, rules imposed because Oman cannot be trusted. I expect the State Department is demanding total security control from U.S. entities on any launch before agreeing to an Oman Artemis Accord agreement.

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Dragonfly’s rotors complete testing

12:07 pm

According to a press release yesterday from the Applied Physics Lab (APL) in Maryland that is building the Dragonfly helicopter that is going to Saturn’s moon Titan, the rotors have completed the first round of testing, and are now about to undergo “fatigue and cryogenic trials under simulated Titan conditions.”

Over five weeks, from August into September, the team evaluated the performance of Dragonfly’s rotor system — which provides the lift for the lander to fly and enables it to maneuver — in Titan-like conditions, looking at aeromechanical performance factors such as stress on the rotor arms, and effects of vibration on the rotor blades and lander body. In late December, the team also wrapped up a set of aerodynamics tests on smaller-scale Dragonfly rotor models in the TDT [Transonic Dynamics Tunnel].

This quote about the manufacture of the rotors however stood out the most:

Pennington and team cut Dragonfly’s first rotors on Nov. 1, 2024. They refined the process as they went: starting with waterjet paring of 1,000-pound aluminum blocks, followed by rough machining, cover fitting, vent-hole drilling, and hole-threading. After an inspection, the parts were cleaned, sent out for welding, and returned for final finishing.

“We didn’t have time or materials to make test parts or extras, so every cut had to be right the first time,” Pennington said, adding that the team also had to find special tools and equipment to accommodate some material changes and design tweaks. [emphasis mine]

In other words, this is another hardware-poor NASA project. What they build is what they have. No time or money for testing of prototypes.

This mission is really pushing the envelope, possibly more than any NASA planetary probe in a half century. I just hope they get it right.

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Russia delays launch of its own “Starlink” constellation

9:33 am

I’m shocked, shocked! According to news reports in Russia yesterday, Roscosmos has now delayed the initial launches for its own copycat “Starlink” constellation because the production of the satellites has fallen behind schedule.

In September 2025, Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov promised that by the end of 2025, the first 300 satellites would begin to be deployed in orbit as part of the Rassvet project. They are supposed to become “an analogue of the Starlink system” and provide “access to the internet at any geographical point.”

According to the publication, the postponement of the launch of the first 16 devices until 2026 may be due to the fact that the required number of satellites has not yet been assembled.

The project is being run by a Bureau 1440, supposedly a private Russian commercial company that is providing two thirds of the $5.7 billion budget, with the Russian government picking up the difference. It claims it will begin launching this year and have 318 satellites in orbit by 2028.

Wanna bet? Russia has not been able to complete any space project on time in decades, and even when its projects do finally launch, each routinely has had serious technical and quality control issues.

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ESA awards startup Rocket Factory Augsburg a two-launch contract

9:23 am

Screen capture of test failure
Screen capture from video of the RFA-1
test failure in August 2024. Note the flame
shooting out sideways.

The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday awarded the German rocket startup Rocket Factory Augsburg a two-launch contract under its “Flight Ticket Initiative”, designed to encourage the development of a commercial independent European launch market.

With these signatures between ESA and Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), two more missions will be launched with the RFA One rocket from Saxavord Spaceport in the UK as part of the Flight Ticket Initiative. ESA and the European Commission have thus once again placed their trust in RFA as a future launch service provider.

…The Lurbat mission will fly a collection of demonstrator technologies and is developed by Added Value Solutions based in Spain. … A second mission will see the launch of two CubeSats developed under ESA contract by the Spanish company Indra Space. The CubeSats will hold five experiments selected by the European Commission through the Horizon Europe IOD/IOV call for Expression of Interest

Rocket Factory also has a launch contract with the German government. However it needs to first complete the first launch of its RFA-1 rocket. That launch was originally supposed to occur in 2024 but was canceled when the rocket’s first stage was destroyed during a static fire test on its Saxavord launchpad that year.

Since then the company has released little information about the rocket’s status. According to this news report today, it hopes to finally do that test launch this year. It better do it soon, as there is a slew of other European rocket companies that intend to do the same.

And then of course there is the question of the Saxavord spaceport and the red tape that has crippled all the spaceports in Great Britain. Both Saxavord and Rocket Factory have previously gotten their launch licenses from the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), but it is unclear if those licenses remain valid, especially after the static fire explosion. Based on its past behavior, the CAA could have pulled the licenses, and is now reviewing the whole thing.

If so, it might take years for both to get an approval again. In fact, this might very well be the reason Rocket Factory didn’t launch in 2025.

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Blue Origin to reuse first stage on next New Glenn flight

9:48 am

New Glenn first stage after landing
The New Glenn first stage after landing
in November.

In a sign that Blue Origin’s CEO David Limp is beginning to reshape the previously slow culture of the company, it announced yesterday that its next New Glenn launch, set for no earlier than late Feburary, will reuse the first stage that the company successfully landed on the last New Glenn flight in November 2025.

If this launch takes place as scheduled, it will mean Blue Origin was also able to inspect, refurbish as necessary, and prepare that used first stage in a little over three months. While not as fast as SpaceX is now doing with its Falcon 9 first stages, it is still remarkably fast, considering it is the first booster Blue Origin has recovered. SpaceX didn’t attempt its first reuse of a recovered first stage for a little more than a year after its first successful landing.

Of course, SpaceX was breaking new ground, so more caution and engineering work was needed. Blue Origin has the advantage of almost a decade of experience to draw upon. Nonetheless, Blue Origin’s decision to reuse so quickly is still impressive. It suggests its engineering behind New Glenn is very robust.

Limp still has work to do, however, to get Blue Origin operating with the speed matching SpaceX. This third launch of New Glenn will place an AST SpaceMobile Bluebird satellite into orbit, because the original payload, Blue Origin’s unmanned Blue Moon MK1 lunar lander, wasn’t ready as planned, and is still undergoing final ground check-ups.

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Blue Origin’s proposed TeraWave constellation: Is it really competition with SpaceX?

1:36 pm

TeraWave logo

Blue Origin announced yesterday that it going to build a major satellite constellation — dubbed TeraWave and comprising more than 5,000 satellites — to provide internet service to the globe while also providing data center capability for those companies that wish to establish space-based cloud computing facilities.

It plans to begin launching satellites in 2027.

As I noted in today’s quick links below, such a story would normally merit a full post, “but considering Blue Origin’s inability to get almost anything off the ground, this proposal doesn’t deserve that much coverage at this point.” I just can’t get excited about any Blue Origin proposal, until they actually start launching it. For almost a decade this company has been making these kind of grand announcements, and has only so far managed to achieve one, its New Glenn rocket. And that has come years late and at a pace that is glacial.

Not surprisingly, the mainstream propaganda press immediately went bonkers over this proposal, immediately declaring most absurdly that TeraWave is already a major challenger to SpaceX’s Starlink constellation. Here are just a few very typical examples:

This adulation by the mainstream press of Bezos is far from unusual. For reasons that baffle me, the propaganda press has consistently considered any project proposal coming from a Jeff Bezos’ company to instantly be God’s gift to humanity. For more than a decade now it has been touting Blue Origin as the company that SpaceX needs to beat, flipping reality on its head. Now it ranks Blue Origin’s TeraWave constellation a major Starlink rival, when it is at least two years from even launching its first satellite.

There is one aspect of this story however that does deserve to be highlighted because it appears no one else is noticing it, which is why I after some thought I decided to write this full post. » Read more

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New gullies on Mars?

12:08 pm

Fresh gullies on Mars?
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on November 6, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this image “Fresh-Looking Gullies.” It was clearly taken to study the gullies flowing down the north interior crater wall of this 4.4 mile-wide unnamed crater, about 1,500 feet deep.

What causes these gullies remains an open question. They are found in many places in the Martian mid-latitudes. When first discovered scientists thought they might be related to the sublimation of underground ice. More recent research suggests they are formed by the seasonal dry ice frost cycle that in the high latitudes has carbon dioxide condense to fall as snow in autumn and then sublimate away in the spring.
» Read more

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