Sunspot update: The pause in the ramp up to solar maximum continues

NOAA has once again published its monthly update of its monthly graph that tracks the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. Below is that November graph, annotated by me with some additional details added to provide context.

Though sunspot number continued to be much higher than the prediction (almost double), October saw almost exactly the same number of sunspots as seen in September, which is why this new graph seems almost identical to last month’s.

In other words, the pause in the ramp up to solar maximum, first noted in August, continues.
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Travel agency buys two Space Perspective high altitude balloon flights

Space Perspective's Neptune Capsule
Graphic of Space Perspective’s Neptune capsule.

The travel agency Cruise Planners has reserved two future 20-mile-high flights on the high altitude balloon Spaceship Neptune, being built by the Florida-based company Space Perspective.

Cruise Planners has reserved two full capsules scheduled to fly in 2025 & 2027 respectively on Spaceship Neptune.

Spaceship Neptune will differ from other spacecraft by being attached and secured to the SpaceBalloon for the entirety of the flight, making it a safe and seamless journey for the traveler. Other vessels separate mid-flight and transfer to different flight systems. According to Space Perspective, Spaceship Neptune will be lifted to space by the SpaceBalloon, powered by renewable hydrogen with no rockets and no carbon footprint. Guests won’t have the jarring blastoff that is typical of space travel, but instead will ascend steadily at 12 mph, making the experience accessible for anyone who is able to fly with a commercial airline.

Space Perspective is one of three balloon companies now planning such high altitude flights. Ticket prices will range from $50K to $125K, depending on company. At the moment Space Perspective is charging the most, but expect that to change as the competition heats up.

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Mengtian moved to its permanent port on Tiangong-3

Tiangong-3 station, when completed

Chinese engineers today successfully shifted the new Mengtian module from its docking port to its permanent port to the side, thus completing the assembly of the major components of the Tiangong-3 space station. Shortly thereafter the six astronauts on board the station opened the hatch and entered the module.

The graphic to the right shows the station’s final arrangement, T-shaped. The station however is not fully complete, as the large vertical solar panels have not yet been installed. Based on past station work, these will probably have to be shipped up later, and installed during space walks.

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NASA delays first manned Starliner mission again

NASA today announced that it has rescheduled the first manned demo mission of Boeing’s Starliner capsule to ISS from February to April, 2023.

The agency attributes the two month delay to scheduling conflicts with other visiting spacecraft at ISS. This might be true, but it also could be that Boeing wanted a little extra time to finish out the work it still needs to do to fix the anomalies that occurred on the unmanned demo mission, as well preparing the new capsule for launch.

This flight will carry two astronauts to ISS for about two weeks. The press release also noted this interesting tidbit:

The previously flown crew module, named Calypso, will be connected to a new service module later this year.

Apparently Boeing has decided to give names to these capsules, like SpaceX has. It also appears that the company and NASA are satisfied enough with the condition of the capsule after flying the unmanned demo flight to use it again for a manned mission.

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Crash prediction for Long March 5B core stage narrows

Crash prediction
Click for original image.

List of the largest uncontrolled re-entries

This morning’s report by the Aerospace Corporation has narrowed the crash time and location for China’s out-of-control Long March 5B core stage to six orbits, about 8 hours, on November 4, 2022, with the prediction centered over a point in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

The company’s graphic to the right shows the orbital tracks. Note that this prediction puts many habitable locations under risk, including parts of the United States, Spain, Africa, and Australia.

Since the crash is now expected tomorrow, expect further updates later today.

The second graphic to the right has also been created by the Aerospace Corporation. It shows the top 20 largest man-made objects that have fallen out-of-control from orbit. Four of the top six were dropped on the world by China, all within the past two years. All but one of the others occurred prior to 1987, before the U.S. and Russia took positive action to prevent such things. The one exception, Phobos-Grunt, was an unexpected failure, its rocket putting it into an unstable orbit rather than sending it to Mars.

China, like the U.S. and Russia, has signed the Outer Space Treaty. That treaty requires each signatory to control the objects it puts in space, and makes it liable for any damage caused by such objects. The U.S. and Russia have both tried very hard to abide by that treaty. China however has thumbed its nose at it.

We must wonder what China will do if this core stage kills someone when it comes down tomorrow.

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American freedom sets a new yearly record for rocketry

Liberty enlightens the world
Liberty has now also enlightened the exploration of space

Capitalism in space: In 1966, more than a half century ago, the United States government was in a desperate space race to catch up with the communist Soviet Union, which for the previous decade had been first in almost every major achievement in space, from launching the first orbital satellite, the first manned mission, the first two- and three- manned missions, and the first spacewalk.

In 1966, the NASA and the U.S. military successfully launched 70 times in their effort to catch up, a number that has remained the record for more that five decades as the most American launches in a single year.

All but one of those seventy launches were either for NASA or the military, paid for and built not for profit but for achieving the political ends of the federal government. Many of those seventy launches were also short duration technology test satellites, whose purpose once achieved ended those programs.

By the end of the 1960s, this aggressive effort had paid off, with the U.S. being the first to land humans on the Moon while matching or exceeding the Soviets in almost every major technical space challenge. The need for such an aggressive government launch program vanished.

Thus, for the next half century, the United States rarely exceeded thirty launches in a single year. This low number was further reduced by the decision in the 1970s by the federal government to shut down the entire private launch industry and require all American manned and satellite payloads to be launched on NASA’s space shuttle.

Come 2011 and the retirement of the space shuttle, all this finally changed. The federal government began a slow and painful transition in the next decade from building and launching its own rockets to buying that service from the private sector. It took awhile, but that transition finally allowed the rebirth of a new American private launch industry, led by SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket.

Tonight, that SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket completed the 71st launch in 2022, breaking that 1966 record by placing in orbit a commercial communications satellite. And it did it with almost two months left in the year, guaranteeing that the record has not only be broken, it will be shattered.
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Freefall: an antenna company for space

Freefall: Antennas for Space!

Last week I had the opportunity to tour the offices space-based antenna startup Freefall, another one of Tucson’s many space-related companies.

Not surprisingly (and probably to the company’s credit), the offices and facility were themselves not that impressive. Essentially it was an open space with some areas reserved for desks and workers, and other areas where engineers could do some antenna construction and testing. In one corner was what the company’s CEO, Doug Stetson, labeled “their antenna graveyard,” past antenna experiments that were no longer needed or in use.

However, like all of these new independently-owned small aerospace companies popping up worldwide now that western governments have given up control of their space programs, what makes this company stand out is the creative innovations — both in design and manufacturing — that it brings to its products. In the case of Freefall, those products are all kinds of antennas, designed for all kinds of space-related uses.

First, there is design. The key to Freefall’s business model is its spherical dish antenna design.
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November 2, 2022 Quick space links

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

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Vermont news outlet blacklists its own story to protect the queer agenda at a local school

WCAX: A modern news outlet, dedicated to censorship
WCAX: A modern news outlet, dedicated to censorship

Today’s blacklist story is a follow-up on an earlier blacklist story. In September officials running Randolph High School in Vermont banned all the girls from the school’s volley ball team from the girls locker room, so that a cross-dressing boy would have that girls dressing room all to himself.

At the time I noted how this action by the school was “so absurd that at first glance it is hard to believe.”

Well, the story has become even more absurd. The news outlet that first reported the story, WCAX-TV, decided in mid-October to blacklist its own story in order to protect and promote the queer agenda in the local schools.

But [on October 11th], links to the controversial story and a recording of the newscast from that night went instead to a page that read “404/Not Found.” When … asked about the missing content, WCAX news director Roger Garrity said the station took it down last week “to prevent others from using our reporting to attack people in the transgender community.

“We didn’t announce it then for fear it might further inflame the situation,” Garrity wrote in an email. “We are now working with LGBTQ advocates on a message to the community acknowledging the harm that was caused.” In response to follow-up questions, Garrity said the station was working with Outright Vermont and GLAAD to craft its message and would put it on the 6 p.m. newscast “as soon as we have it ready to go.”

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Curiosity begins a detour

Panorama taken November 2, 2022 by Curiosity
Click for full image.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

The science team running the Curiosity rover on Mount Sharp on Mars have decided to take the rover on a detour. As shown in the overview map to the right, rather than continue climbing directly up the mountain in the canyon dubbed Gediz Vallis, they have turned the rover to the west in order to put it back on its original planned route, though traveling in the opposite direction. The goal is to get to Gediz Vallis Ridge, which the rover attempted to reach by crossing the Greenheugh Pediment back in the spring, but was forced to retreat because the ground was simply too rough for the rover’s wheels.

From their October 31st update:

We are now officially on our detour, a short round trip to image and capture geochemistry of the “Gediz Vallis ridge” up on the pediment, before coming back down to the “Marker Band valley” and rejoining the MSAR (Mount Sharp Ascent Route). This detour will allow us to access some of the area we’d planned to visit before getting turned around by the ‘gator-back’ terrain on the Greenheugh pediment. For this part of the campaign, we are prioritizing driving, getting to our destination as fast as we can, but imaging as we go and marking areas of interest for contact science as we come back down.

The panorama above, cropped and reduced to post here, shows the rover’s view uphill to get to the ridge. The blue dot marks its present position. The yellow lines mark the approximate area viewed by the panorama above.

I think the rover’s path will take it up through the saddle between the two small peaks on the left. The science team is likely hoping that once they get up over that saddle, the terrain to get to the ridge will be smoother and less treacherous than the very broken and rocky surface of the Greenheugh Pediment.

This route also appears to also get them up on the marker band more safely. That band, marked by the white arrows, is a distinct smooth layer found in many places on the flanks of Mount Sharp.

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