Year: 2023

ISRO completes launch rehearsal for Chandrayaan-3’s launch on July 14th

9:10 am


Click for interactive map.

India’s space agency ISRO yesterday completed a full launch dress rehearsal of its Launch Vehicle Mark-3 rocket (LV-M3), in preparation for its July 14, 2023 launch that will put Chandrayaan-3 on its way to the Moon, India’s second attempt to soft land on another world.

More information here. The spacecraft will not reach the Moon until mid-August, and if all goes as planned, the lander Vikram will attempt its landing on August 23rd. If successful, the Pragyan rover will roll off the lander and begin exploration lasting about two weeks, or one lunar day. It is not designed to survive the long lunar night.

The LV-M3 rocket is simply the most powerful variation of India’s Geosynchronous Launch Vehicle (GSLV) rocket, capable of putting large payloads into space or sending probes to other planets.

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Black Georgia Democrat switches to Republican Party

9:05 pm

Mesha Mainor, a black Democrat state legislator representing a largely black district in Georgia announced today that she is leaving the Democratic Party to become a Republican.

“When I decided to stand up on behalf of disadvantaged children in support of school choice, my Democrat colleagues didn’t stand by me,” Mainor told Fox News Digital, asserting that her Democrat colleagues “crucified” her for supporting school choice and standing against efforts to defund police. She said she has always stood as the type of politician who will “work across the aisle to deliver results for my community and the people I was elected to represent.” But her leftist colleagues did not support her.

“They abandoned me,” she said, explaining again that her decision to leave the Democrat Party is not a political decision but a moral one. “For far too long, the Democrat Party has gotten away with using and abusing the black community,” Mainor said. “For decades, the Democrat Party has received the support of more than 90 percent of the black community. And what do we have to show for it? I represent a solidly blue district in the city of Atlanta. This isn’t a political decision for me. It’s a moral one,” she continued.

Such party switches have been going on since 1994, most of which have gone from Democrat to Republican. What makes this switch significant is that it involves a black representative, in a largely black district. When she runs in the next election her presence might cause a lot of blacks to vote Republican for the first time. And all it takes is one such vote for a person to begin to look at Democrats with open eyes.

And if she is defeated by a Democrat, it will tell us that nothing has changed, and the local black population is still on the Democratic Party plantation, afraid to leave.

Thus, the next election in this district could be a significant bellwether on the future trends in politics.

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Chinese pseudo-company successfully completes first orbital launch of methane-fueled rocket

8:38 pm

The Chinese pseudo-company Landspace on July 12 (Chinese time) successfully completed the first orbital launch of methane-fueled rocket, Zhuque-2, placing a test payload into orbit after lifting off from China’s interior Jiuquan spaceport.

No word on where the first stage crashed, or whether it landed near habitable areas. The following sentence from the news report struck me as significant, considering the decade-long effort by Blue Origin to develop its own BE-4 methane-fueled engine:

Testing of the TQ-12 engine started in July 2019, with Wednesday’s launch coming after four years of research and development by the company.

It took this pseudo-company four years of testing to finally achieve its first orbital launch. Blue Origin began testing the BE-4 engine in 2017, and still hasn’t gotten off that first launch.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

46 SpaceX
26 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches 52 to 26, and the entire world combined 52 to 44, while SpaceX by itself still leads the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 46 to 44.

Note: I do not consider these Chinese companies private or independent of the Chinese government. There is no independent ownership. They might obtain investment capital and win Chinese contracts and make profits, but nothing they do belongs to the company management, and everything they do is closely supervised by the Chinese government. At any moment that government can take that company from its management. Thus, I will never list these companies separately.

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July 11, 2023 Quick space links

4:45 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay

 

 

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Blue Origin BE-4 rocket engine explodes during test

4:03 pm

This failure has been kept very quiet, but on June 11, 2023 during a static fire engine test of a Blue Origin BE-4 rocket engine, it exploded 10 seconds into the test.

During a firing on June 30 at a West Texas facility of Jeff Bezos’ space company, a BE-4 engine detonated about 10 seconds into the test, according to several people familiar with the matter. Those people described having seen video of a dramatic explosion that destroyed the engine and heavily damaged the test stand infrastructure. The people spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to discuss nonpublic matters.

The engine that exploded was expected to finish testing in July. It was then scheduled to ship to Blue Origin’s customer United Launch Alliance for use on ULA’s second Vulcan rocket launch, those people said.

The story is based on anonymous sources, but if true it means another serious setback for both ULA’s Vulcan rocket and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket. Vulcan has the BE-4 engines it needs to launch its first Vulcan, but it might feel forced to delay that launch until it receives the analysis of this failed test.

It also means that even after more than a decade of development, Blue Origin has still not worked out all the kinks in its BE-4 engine. This inability does not speak well for the company. Are they not testing enough? Are they not questioning their designs enough?

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Citizens are fleeing cities run by Democrats in record numbers

3:40 pm

This story is simply another data point in a well known trend that became very clear during and after the panic over COVID: The populations of cities run by Democrats are dropping faster than ever before, as citizen flee these badly run crime-ridden hellholes where only honest citizens get punished for defending themselves.

The number of people who used to live in Los Angeles County and Cook County in Illinois continues to plummet.

Los Angeles County posted the largest population decline of all counties in the United States in 2022, falling by 90,704 and continuing a downward trend. It lost nearly twice that amount (180,394) in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 estimates released Thursday. Cook County, home to Chicago, lost 68,314 people from July 2021 to July of last year.

…The biggest losers were Los Angeles County, California (-90,704); Cook County, Illinois (-68,314); Queens County, New York (-50,112); Kings County, New York (-46,970); and Bronx County, New York (-41,143).

Not surprisingly, the counties with the greatest influx of new residents were in traditionally conservative states, Texas, Florida, and Arizona, though Arizona will probably lose that status as its many refugees from California arrive and continue to vote for Democrats.

Can anyone explain this trend? It seems so puzzling that people would flee cities run by Democrats to go places where Republican rule has dominated.

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All UN climate models vastly over-estimate warming in the U.S.

2:28 pm

climate models vs observations

According to a direct comparison between actual data and the three-dozen climate models used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the models all overestimate the warming that has happened, sometimes by ridiculous amounts.

The graph to the right shows “the 50-year area-averaged temperature trend during 1973-2022 for the 12-state corn belt as observed with the official NOAA homogenized surface temperature product (blue bar) versus the same metric from 36 CMIP6 climate models [red bars].”

This story isn’t new, and in fact to me has become somewhat boring because the results are always the same. The computer models that global warming climate scientists have pushed at us for decades have been consistently wrong. They routinely have over-predicted the amount of warming. Since such models are expressly designed to provide us reliable predictions, and these models are not reliable or correct, I find it absurd to pay any attention to them.

At the same time, this repeated and continuing failure needs to be mentioned periodically, because politicians and climate warming activists (I repeat myself) continue to ignore this failure as they wave these models around like red flags that must to be obeyed. Not only should these models be ignored, our governments and science community should stop funding these people. Their work is a failure. They don’t deserve further grants.

Let me add one more important note: The observations show an increase of about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. This increase is almost a rounding number, considering the amount of random fluctuations that is routinely seen in the global climate temperature. Even if the trend was extended for a century (something that is not guaranteed at all), the increase would still be only two degrees, hardly a worry.

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Pushback: Parents in droves reject the queer agenda and bad education of the public schools in Iowa

2:10 pm

At the start of this year the Iowa legislature passed a law that made state funds available to parents who wished to use it to pay tuition at a private school, rather than have their kids attend public schools.

The legislature also budgeted $107 million for the program in its first year, assuming about 14,000 students would apply.

Hah! The state received 25,000 applications, almost twice what was expected. It appears parents don’t want their children learning about queers or watching transvestites performing sex acts in the classroom. More importantly, based on the failed and bankrupt reaction of the public schools to COVID, parents also realized that these public schools are failing to provide even a basic education, and want to pick alternatives.

Nor is this phenomenon unique to Iowa.

Many states responded by increasing their school choice options. At least 20 states have enacted new or expanded school choice policies since 2021.

Arizona saw a similar explosion of applications last year when the state massively expanded its school voucher program to every K-12 student. Republican Governor Doug Ducey signed a bill allowing every student to get a taxpayer-funded Empowerment Scholarship Account of about $6,500 per child. In just the first two weeks after Arizona began accepting applications, the state saw about 6,800 new students apply for the school vouchers.

The public schools are bankrupt and dying. The sooner we put them out of their misery and get all kids out of them, the sooner the quality of education in the United States will go up, while ending the left’s use of the schools to indoctrinate little children. It isn’t hard to teach reading, writing, and arithmetic. Too bad the public schools decided in the past few decades to abandon that fundamental responsibility.

Sidebar note: I continue to be under the weather, so I will post more of these short pieces rather than the longer essay I had planned to write today. No energy for the harder work, even though this is a terrible time to have to reduce my output, during my fund-raising campaign.

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A Martian crater with a very weird rim

1:07 pm

A Martian crater with a very weird rim
Click for original image.

In looking through new images from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), I sometimes stumble some very strange things, with today’s cool image an example. The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on May 7, 2023 by MRO’s high resolution camera, and shows the western half of a two-mile-wide crater with a very weird rim, almost as if a person had decided he wanted to reshape it with a filigree pattern.

Though only two-miles wide, this crater actually has been named Johnstown. I suspect this is because of its strange rim, prompting a research effort and the need to provide it a name. Why the rim has this repeating pattern of gaps, however, is beyond my pay grade to explain, and I have been unable to track down any research papers about it. The nearby surrounding surface suggests vaguely the possibility that this is a caldera, not an impact crater, but even so why would the rim of the caldera have these regular breaks?
» Read more

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Zhurong found Mars drier than expected and less eroded than the Moon

10:43 am

According to a new paper, Chinese scientists using data from their Zhurong Mars rover have found little or no evidence of water in the immediate underground, while also finding the surface less eroded than the surface on the Moon.

A layer of regolith covers the surface of Mars, which is the result of geologic processes that occurred over millions to billions of years. Compared to the observations from satellites, the Zhurong rover of China’s first Mars mission (Tianwen-1) had a closer look at the properties of the regolith layer in the explored region within southern Utopia Planitia. There is evidence that the exposed materials might be related to aqueous activities. Local landforms on the surface suggest the possible presence of buried volatiles, like water ice. The radar instrument (RoPeR) on board the rover can expose subsurface structures and the dielectric properties of the regolith layer at high-resolution, to assess their composition. The loss tangent results suggest that water ice is not the main component of the local martian regolith at some depth. The scattering distribution of radar profile along the traveling path and heterogeneous subsurface features show more diverse surface processes and weaker space weathering effects on Mars than those on the airless Moon.

Since Zhurong landed in the equatorial regions, its data about the lack of water simply confirmed other data from orbit and from other rovers/landers. Though there are features even here that suggest the presence of water, that water made those features a long time ago, and is now gone.

The data suggesting the regolith is less eroded than the Moon, however, is a surprise, and counter-intuitive.

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ESA to issue contract for new lander for its Franklin Mars rover

10:23 am

According to the head of the European Space Agency (ESA), it plans to issue a contract for new lander for its Franklin Mars rover in the next few months, replacing the Russian lander that was lost when ties with that country were broken after it invaded the Ukraine.

Josef Aschbacher, the director general of the European Space Agency (ESA), says the agency will soon release a contract opportunity to design the ExoMars mission’s lander, to replace the Russian one lost when their partnership severed in 2022. “We will issue a contract for the development of the lander, and this will go out soon, in the next few months or so,” Aschbacher told Space.com July 1, hours after the Euclid “dark universe” mission launched here. “This is all in full preparation.”

Aschbacher’s wording is vague enough to leave open the possibility that ESA is considering hiring one of the many private companies from the U.S. and Japan to build it. It is also possible it is waiting to see if India’s Chandrayaan-3 lands successfully on the Moon after its launch this week. If so, India could possibly get that contract.

The present targeted launch date for Franklin is 2028, so there is plenty of time for another lander to be built.

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