Year: 2025

November 25, 2025 Quick space links

3:02 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • Scientists release final data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope project
    The data, collected over almost two decades, confirm the conflict in the predicted number for the Hubble constant (the universe’s expansion rate), where two different methods of observations have produced two reliable but different numbers. At present no theory successfully explains the conflict.
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Predicting dust storms in the Starship candidate landing zone on Mars

1:30 pm

View of dust storm one
Click for original figure.

Scientists using the UAE’s Al-Amal Mars orbiter were able to track two near-identical dust storms that occurred in the northern lowland plains of Mars and near the candidate landing zone for SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft.

The image to the right comes from figure 2 of the paper, and was taken by Al-Amal approximately 25,000 miles above the red planet’s surface. By comparing the growth and evolution of both storms, the scientists now think they have a method for predicting when such storms occur in this region. From their abstract:

Our observational case study constrains scenarios presented by Ogohara (2025). We show the first scenario, summarized in Section 5 of Ogohara (2025), [explains] dust storms 1 and 2. This scenario is as follows. Dust storms form in the later morning hours through combined effects of the warm sector of a low-pressure system and daytime phenomena. The low-pressure system is associated with wavenumber 3 baroclinic waves.

There is no doubt that dust storms 1 and 2 start to form and develop in the late morning hours, in or near the warm sector of a low-pressure system. Also, combined effects of this low-pressure system and daytime convection are possible. This is supported by evidence for daytime convection, such as the dust devil number in MY 28 and planetary boundary layer height estimates from the Mars Climate Database.

In other words, future SpaceX colonists should be prepared for late morning dust storms when a low-pressure system moves in.

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The smooth and extremely calm methane lakes of Titan

12:17 pm

The Cassini radar track on Titan
Click for full image.

Using archival radar data obtained by the Saturn orbiter Cassini from one of its many fly-bys of the moon Titan, scientists now believe that most of the high northern latitude lakes on Titan are mostly made of pure methane, not ethane, and that their surface is remarkably calm and smooth. From the abstract:

During its 119th flyby of the moon, the Cassini spacecraft conducted a bistatic radar experiment observing a group of seven lakes in Titan’s Northern Lake District located between (72°N, 143°W) and (77°N, 131°W). The orbiter transmitted a continuous-wave signal at a wavelength of 3.56 cm (X-band) toward Titan’s surface, targeting the moving specular reflection point between the spacecraft and Earth. As the antenna footprint intercepted the liquid surfaces of the lakes, distinct specular reflections were detected on Earth by the 70-m antenna at NASA’s Canberra Deep Space Network complex. Analysis of these reflections shows that all seven lakes exhibit similar dielectric properties—linked to their composition—and surface roughness, suggesting they are methane-dominated and may have a few millimeters of surface roughness. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted phrase underscores what previous data had shown, that the methane lakes of Titan are remarkably calm, almost to the point of absurdity.

The image to the right, figure 1 of the paper, shows the track of this radar observation. Based on this data as well as data obtained during a later fly-by of another nearby lake, the scientists posit that all the lakes in this region are likely similar, mostly filled with methane having a surface with barely no ripples at all.

This information is crucial for the planned Dragonfly mission, that will fly over and onto Titan’s methane lakes, though not in the high latitudes but in its equatorial regions. Knowing the conditions as best as possible will increase the odds that this very risky mission will succeed.

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New radar data shows no evidence of liquid water under Mars’ south pole ice cap

11:51 am

New data using the Sharad radar instrument on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) appears to disprove the 2018 observations that suggested a lake of liquid water might exist under the Martian south pole ice cap.

From the abstract:

Due to a novel spacecraft maneuver, SHARAD has now obtained a basal return associated with the putative body of water. Modeling of the radar response is not consistent with the liquid water explanation, instead suggesting a localized, low roughness region of dry rock/dust beneath the ice could explain the SHARAD response. Reconciling the divergent responses of SHARAD and MARSIS remains essential to determine the nature of this anomalous south polar region.

In other words, this reflectively bright area is caused not by liquid water, but by a very smooth patch in the south pole’s many underlying layers. What remains unknown is the cause of that smoothness. The scientists posit that “a crater floor with sediment or impact melt fill” could be the cause. Another study in 2022 suggested it could be volcanic rock, while a 2021 study claimed clay could be the cause.

At the moment no one has the ability to find out. The only certain way would be to drill deep cores, but that won’t happen until there is a thriving colony on Mars.

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Russia launches classified military satellites

10:12 am

Russia today successfully launched a set of classified military satellites, its Angara-1.2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

Russia’s state-run press provided no further information, not even confirming the number of satellites launched. The rocket’s path was north over the Arctic, to put the satellites in a polar orbit.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

154 SpaceX
73 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
14 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 154 to 122.

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Two suborbital test launches in Poland during the past month

10:03 am

According to different reports, it appears Poland successfully completed two different suborbital test launches since October, both launching from Poland’s Central Air Force Training Range in Ustka.

First, on October 24, 2025 a consortium of private and government entities successfully launched a three-stage suborbital rocket.

The project began in early 2020 and received roughly 18.6 million zł (€4.1 million) in EU funding through the European Regional Development Fund. The consortium is led by state-owned aerospace company WZL-1, and includes the Military Institute of Armament Technology (WITU) of the Ministry of Defence, and defence manufacturer ZPS Gamrat. While initially intended to carry payloads into space, WITU has stated that the technology could also be used for the development of anti-aircraft and tactical missiles.

According to a government official, the rocket reached a planned altitude of 40 miles, short of space.

Next, on November 22, 2025, the Perun rocket built by the Polish startup SpaceForest was launched (translated by Google):

On Saturday, just before 2 PM, the company SpaceForest successfully launched its Perun suborbital rocket from the Central Air Force Training Ground in Ustka, Poland. The rocket carried research payloads from across Poland. This was the third test flight of this rocket.

According to Marcin Sarnowski, a representative of SpaceForest, the flight went according to plan. The launch time was announced approximately 40 minutes before the countdown, in accordance with the company’s earlier announcements. The flight was visible from the beach. “During the flight, we managed to test many systems and experiments. We will know all the details soon,” said Sarnowski.

It increasingly appears Poland is developing its own rocket industry. SpaceForest for example has deals to launch its suborbital rocket from multiple spaceports in the Azores, on a ocean platform in the North Sea, and in Norway’s Andoya spaceport.

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NASA releases images during Osiris-Apex’s fly-by of Earth in late September

9:42 am

Earth as seen by Osiris-Apex
Click for original image.

NASA today released photos taken by the asteroid probe Osiris-Apex (formerly Osiris-Rex) as it swung past the Earth on September 23, 2025 at a distance 2,136 miles, on its way to the asteroid Apophis.

The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was one of about 424 images taken by the spacecraft during the fly-by. From those, scientists compiled a movie, which you can view here. As this picture shows, South America was in view on the right side of the Earth.

Osiris-Apex, which had already completed its prime mission by returning samples from the asteroid Bennu, is scheduled to arrive at Apophis shortly after that asteroid’s close fly-by of the Earth on April 13, 2029. The Trump administration had threatened to shut it down for budget reasons, but Congress restored those funds in ending the government shut down.

At that time Apophis will zip past only 20,000 miles from Earth. There will be no chance of collision. Nor is there much chance Apophis will hit the Earth in the next two centuries. Its orbit however makes it a potentially dangerous asteroid, and that 2029 fly-by could change these calculations.

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Twin Escapade Mars orbiters take first images to test instruments

9:21 am

Escapade camera test
Click for original image.

The two twin Escapade Mars orbiters, built by Rocket Lab, that were launched last week by Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket have both successfully activated and tested their optical and infrared cameras.

The optical picture to the right, reduced to post here, shows the side of one solar panel on one of the orbiters.

The images prove the cameras are working well. The visible-light image also suggests that the spacecraft should have the sensitivity to image Martian aurora from orbit. The infrared camera will be used at Mars to better understand how materials on the surface heat up and cool down during Mars’ day-night cycle and over the planet’s seasons.

The second ESCAPADE spacecraft also successfully took its first photos, but it was targeted toward deep space, so the images were simply black.

The NASA press release did not explain why the second spacecraft’s camera was pointed in that manner. One would think the engineers would want it to look at the spacecraft in order to test its pointing and resolution. It could be it is placed in this manner and cannot be changed, or it could be there is a problem not mentioned by the release.

The two spacecraft are taking a different path to Mars than normal. Both will remain as Lagrange Point 2, a million miles from Earth until November 2026, when they will then be sent back towards Earth to slingshot past to arrive at Mars in September 2027. This plan allowed the spacecraft to be launched with greater flexibility, rather than be tied to the launch windows that occur every two years that all other Mars probes have used.

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Vast signs deal with Colombia’s space agency

8:01 am

Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule
Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule

The space station startup Vast last week signed an agreement with the space agency of the South American country of Colombia to do cooperative research, linked to Vast’s planned space stations.

The agreement suggested it would be used mostly to encourage educational and research opportunities for Colombia’s universities and schools. However, the press release added this tidbit:

Both organizations intend to work together to identify joint initiatives that leverage Vast’s spacecraft, including Haven-1, scheduled to be the world’s first commercial space station, with AEC’s [Columbia’s space agency] growing ecosystem of data analytics, connectivity, and science education programs.

Vast already has similar agreements with Uzbeckistan, the Czech Republic, and the European Space Agency. Its Haven-1 single module station, set to launch next year for a three-year mission during which it will be occupied four different times for several weeks, still has no confirmed passengers or crews. One can’t help wondering if these international deals hint at the possibility that one or all of these international partners will fly astronauts there.

It is also possible Vast has been hunting for passengers, and as yet has not been able to convince anyone to buy a ticket. I expect everyone is waiting to see the condition of Haven-1, after it launches.

There is one problem that might make any final deal with Colombia difficult: Its Marxist president does not have a very good relationship with the Trump administration.

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A Midnight Repost: Farewell to America

12:29 am

I wrote the essay below the day before the November 2024 election, when it remained very uncertain whether it would be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as our next president.

The essay itself did not get picked up at very many news aggregates. Nor did it garner as much traffic as would be expected, based on the aggregates that did pick it up. I believe the reason was the depressing title.

No matter, the point I made then still holds. The fundamental American culture — based on freedom, family, and the Judeo-Christian values of Western Civilization — that made this the most prosperous place ever created by humankind in its entire history no longer exists.

What will come remains unknown. We might see a resurgence of that culture, especially based on the public’s response following the murder of Charlie Kirk. Then again, we might not. As I said in the very first line of my history, Leaving Earth, societies change.

I repost this essay now, during Thanksgiving week, because I strongly believe it essential that we understand exactly where we stand, in order to make it possible for us to move forward, in the right direction. The essay is also another example of my never-ending and too often successful effort to look farther into the future than others. I think a year later this essay stands up quite well in this sense.

———————————–
Farewell to America

The Liberty Bell
“Proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all
the inhabitants thereof.” Photo credit: William Zhang

Despite my headline, this essay is not intended to be entirely pessimistic. Instead it is my effort to accept a reality that I think few people, including myself, have generally been able to process: The country we shall see after tomorrow’s election will not be the America as founded in 1776 and continued to prosper for the next quarter millennium.

The country can certainly be made great again. Elon Musk’s SpaceX proves it, time after time. The talent and creativity of free Americans is truly endless, and if Donald Trump wins it is very likely that energy will be unleashed again, in ways that no one can predict.

The country can certainly become free again. There is no law that prevents the elimination of bureaucracy and regulation, no matter how immortal government agencies appear to be. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 proves this. Though Russia has sadly retreated back to its top-down government-ruling ways, the country did wipe out almost all its bureaucracy in 1991, resulting in an exuberant restart that even today is nowhere near as oppressive as Soviet rule.

Should Donald Trump win, we should have every expectation that he will do the largest house-cleaning of the federal government ever. The benefits will be immeasurable, and magnificent.

What however will not change, even if Donald Trump wins resoundingly tomorrow, is the modern culture and political ethics that now exist. That modern culture is fundamentally different than the America that existed during the country’ s first 200 years, and it guarantees that America can never be the country it once was.
» Read more

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China launches unmanned Shenzhou-22 capsule to its Tiangong-3 station

9:23 pm

UPDATE: The capsule successfully docked with Tiangong-3 as planned, thus giving its three astronauts a lifeboat again.

China tonight (November 25, 2025 Chinese local time) successfully launched an unmanned Shenzhou-22 capsule to its Tiangong-3 station, its Long March 2F rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

China moved very fast to get this rocket and capsule integrated and stacked and ready to launch, less than three weeks. This speed was essential because the three-person crew on Tiangong-3 had no usable lifeboat capsule which they could use should something go wrong and they needed to evacuate. Their capsule, Shenzhou-21, had been used by the previous crew to get back to Earth because that crew’s capsule, Shenzhou-20, had been damaged by “space debris,” according to China’s state-run press.

The capsule is scheduled to dock with Tiangong-3 later in the day, about six hours after launch.

No word by China’s press where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

154 SpaceX
73 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 154 to 121.

1 comment

NASA trims $768 million from Boeing’s Starliner contract

9:08 pm

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS in 2024.

According to one story late today, the modifications NASA announced today on its Starliner contract with Boeing will trim $768 million from the total contract, assuming the two later optional manned missions never fly.

Originally valued at $4.5 billion, Boeing’s contract under the Commercial Crew Program envisioned six operational astronaut flights. NASA’s latest modification cuts that number to four, including up to three crewed missions and an uncrewed cargo flight set for April 2026. Two additional flights remain optional. With the changes, the contract’s value has dropped by $768 million to $3.732 billion; NASA has already paid $2.2 billion to date.

Boeing can still earn that additional money if if somehow manages to convince NASA to do all six flights. It will have great difficult achieving this, however, since there probably won’t be enough time to get all six flights up before ISS is retired. That fact is partly why NASA has made this change.

This report however suggests that NASA is not paying Boeing extra money for the unmanned cargo mission in April 2026. Instead, it is treating it as if it were the first operational manned Starliner flight, paying Boeing its purchase price as if it had achieved all its milestones during the manned demo flight last year.

It really pays in today’s America to be a big giant corporation that does lots of business with our bloated and very corrupt federal government. That government is then quite willing to bend over backwards to help you, even if you are like Boeing and incompetent (Starliner), corrupt (737-MAX), or routinely go over-budget and fail to deliver on time (Air Force One). That certainly appears to be the case here with Boeing.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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