An evening pause: It seems a lot of my readers like to send me videos taken of improvised boogie woogie played at this public piano. Up till now I have not found these videos that compelling. This one however, with the improvised duet of two very skilled players, made the grade.
Hat tip Mike Nelson.
Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos, today announced that Russia will no longer sell any rocket engines to U.S. companies.
The head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, announced the new policy in an interview with the Russia 24 TV channel. “Today we have made a decision to halt the deliveries of rocket engines produced by NPO Energomash to the United States,” Rogozin said in the interview, according to Russia’s state press site Tass. “Let me remind you that these deliveries had been quite intensive somewhere since the mid-1990s.” Rogozin also added: “Let them fly on something else, their broomsticks, I don’t know what,” according to Reuters.
Russian engines are used on two American rockets, ULA’s Atlas-5 and Northrop Grumman’s Antares. The Atlas-4 however is being phased out, and has already received all the engines it needs for all of that rocket’s remaining flights. ULA plans to replace it with its new Vulcan rocket, using Blue Origin’s (long delayed) BE-4 engine.
Antares however is a more serious issue. Northrop Grumman uses this rocket to launch Cygnus freighters to ISS. It depends on two Russian engines for its Ukrainian-built first stage. The Ukraine War now probably makes building more Antares rockets impossible, which means at some point Northrop Grumman will no longer be able to supply ISS with cargo using Cygnus. Furthermore, NASA’s plan to use Cygnus’ engines to maintain ISS’s orbit will be impacted if Cygnus launches to ISS cease.
There is an option, though it too has issues. ULA has already launched one Cygnus to ISS using its Atlas-5. Though this rocket is going away, ULA could probably use its Vulcan instead — assuming Blue Origin finally gets the BE-4 engine operational so that Vulcan can finally launch.
Overall, Russia’s decision might cause a temporary blip in the American space effort, but if the government doesn’t get in the way I think that competition will force a solution. As Aesop said, necessity is the mother of invention.
Click for full image.
Cool image time! Like the Grand Canyon in the United States, Mars’ largest canyon, Valles Marineris, appears to have been carved out of a layered terrain, thus exposing those many layers in the walls of the canyon.
Valles Marineris, however, is much much larger than the Grand Canyon. You could fit dozens of Grand Canyons inside it and hardly fill it. Yet, its walls have the same layered look, suggesting that in Mars’ long geological history, first came many events that laid down new layers time after time, followed by a long period when the laying ceased and other events carved out the canyon to its almost 30,000 foot depth (which by the way is also about six times deeper than the Grand Canyon).
Today’s cool image to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on September 5, 2021 and shows a terraced terrain on the floor of Candor Chasma, one small side canyon of Valles Marineris that is still much larger than the Grand Canyon. The black dot in the overview map above indicates its location. I roughly estimate the elevation difference between the high and low spots in the picture is about 3,000 feet, a difference that while two-thirds that of the depth of the Grand Canyon is almost unnoticeable within the depths of Valles Marineris.
This layering is probably the canyon’s most important geological feature. See these previous cool images here and here for other examples. When geologists finally arrive on Mars and can begin dating these layers in detail they will likely reveal the planet’s entire geological history, going back five to six billion years.
Most of the layers are probably volcanic flood lava laid down by repeated eruptions from the giant volcanoes to the west. In between and within however will be deposits from the Martian atmosphere, telling us its composition and thickness. All told, the layers of Valles Marineris will likely unlock almost all of the most basic secrets of Martian geology.
We merely have to go there to find out.
They’re coming for you next: Hundreds of nurses at Children’s Wisconsin have either been fired or quit their jobs over the hospital’s irrational COVID shot mandate.
Many were denied their request for a religious exemption, after being subjected to a harsh and prolonged interrogation by the hospital.
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According to South Korean officials, the launch later this year of two new home-built satellites on Russian rockets is now unlikely because of the sanctions imposed because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.
South Korea’s CAS500-2 remote sensing satellite is set to launch in the first half of this year on a Russian Soyuz rocket from Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. South Korea’s KOMPSAT-6 multipurpose satellite, equipped with synthetic aperture radar (SAR), is due to launch in the second half of the year on a Russian Angara rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia.
“For now, nothing has changed to the plan,” Korea Aerospace Research Institute spokesman Roh Hyung-il told SpaceNews. “We are taking a close look at how the situation unfolds because it could have a significant impact on our missions.” He admitted that it’s “very likely” that the satellites won’t be launched as planned.
Those officials also said that losing Russia as a launch option will be a “serious blow” to South Korea’s entire space effort. I find that puzzling. There are plenty of other rocket companies now available. Why South Korea feels a need to depend on Russia seems short-sighted.
Capitalism in space: The United Kingdom’s Shetland spaceport, SaxaVord, announced today that it has signed a third launch customer, the smallsat rocket startup Venture Orbital Systems.
Venture Orbital Systems (VOS), a developer of micro launchers and rocket engines based in Reims, France, plans to use the site at Unst as part of its aim to reach 15 launches of its Zephyr rocket by 2026 and 40 by 2030.
The new spaceport, presently under construction, already has ABL as a future rocket compan. ABL, mostly owned by Lockheed Martin, hopes to launch before the end of the year.
The UK’s has a second spaceport under construction in Sutherland, Scotland. It will be interesting to see if both can garner enough business to prosper.
Buyer beware: Chamath Palihapitiya, who recently stepped down as CEO of Virgin Galactic, has been sued by some of the company’s stockholders for using his insider position to pump-and-dump his stock while keeping vital information secret illegally.
The complaint, filed on behalf of Virgin Galactic to seek damages from its directors and officers, also alleges that founder Richard Branson pocketed $301 million by dumping his shares while the stock price was “artificially inflated.”
Leaders of the company were well aware of defects in its spacecraft three years before they were publicly disclosed last year, according to the complaint filed in federal court in Brooklyn, New York.
It is unclear from the article whether Branson is being sued as well.
Based on new satellite photos, it appears that an attempt by Iran to launch a satellite failed this week when the rocket exploded on the launchpad.
Before and after images taken by imagery satellites from two different private companies, Maxar and Planet Labs, suggest the incident likely occurred around February 26th.
Satellite images from Maxar Technologies seen by The Associated Press show scorch marks at a launchpad at Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran’s rural Semnan province on Sunday. A rocket stand on the pad appears scorched and damaged, with vehicles surrounding it. An object, possibly part of the gantry, sits near it.
Successful launches typically don’t damage rocket gantries because they are lowered prior to takeoff. Iran also usually immediately trumpets launches that reach space on its state-run television channels, and it has a history of not acknowledging failed attempts.
The news reports claims that the failed rocket was Iran’s Zuljanah rocket, which uses solid rocket motors for its lower stages. Zuljanah has never made orbit, having been unveiled one year ago after a single suborbital test flight.
OneWeb’s board of directors has voted to cancel all further launches of its satellites from Russia, refusing to meet Russia’s demand that the United Kingdom divest its half share in the company.
On Thursday, OneWeb said the company’s board had voted to suspend all launches from Baikonur, Kazakhstan, where the Russian spaceport operated by Roscosmos is based.
OneWeb didn’t elaborate on the vote. But the UK’s Business and Energy Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, said his government had refused to divest from OneWeb, which received funding from British authorities in 2020 to stave off a bankruptcy. “The UK Government supports OneWeb’s decision,” Kwarteng tweeted on Thursday. “In light of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, we are reviewing our participation in all further projects involving Russian collaboration,” he added.
OneWeb hasn’t commented on the company’s contingency plans. But it’s almost certainly looking for a new launch partner. Russia’s Roscosmos previously helped OneWeb send up 428 of 648 satellites for its internet system, which is designed to serve enterprise users.
This decision, combined with Russia’s decision to suspend further Soyuz-2 rocket launches from French Guiana, essentially ends Russia’s partnership with Arianespace. It also likely ends for many years Russia’s place in the international launch market. OneWeb and Arianespace were its last remaining international customers, and their business is now gone. Even if the Ukraine War was settled today, I suspect neither would wish to renew their business with Russia.
As for OneWeb, it has a number of options in the growing launch market, with Arianespace’s rockets its most likely choice. Financially, the delay hurts them in two ways: First, they have paid Russia for a number of launches already, and Russia has said it will not refund the money. Thus, those launches will cost twice as much. Second, the delay hurts them in their effort to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink constellation.
Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully used its Falcon 9 rocket to launch another 47 Starlink satellites into orbit.
The first stage successfully completed its 11th flight. Both fairings were reused.
The leaders in the 2022 launch race:
9 SpaceX
4 China
2 Russia
2 ULA
The U.S. now leads China 14 to 4 in the national rankings.
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, well worth your time, go here.
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An evening pause: Performed live 2004.
Hat tip Dan Morris.
Click for full image.
Cool image time! The photo to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on January 28, 2022 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. It shows what the science team labels a “modified crater.”
What I see is an old crater almost completely covered by glacial material. That material however is also very old, as there are numerous small craters on its surface, enough that it must have been here for a long time. Its cracked surface also suggests this glacier is very old.
Thus, while we might have ice here, buried by a thin layer of dust and debris to prevent it from sublimating away, it must be very old ice. The many climate cycles caused by the extreme swings in Mars’ rotational tilt, from 11 to 60 degrees, have apparently not caused this ice to ebb and flow very much.
Might it therefore not be ice, but hardened lava?
The location, as shown by the overview map below, provides some context, but only makes this mystery more puzzling.
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Time for my monthly sunspot cycle update, where I take NOAA’s monthly graph showing the long term trends in the Sun’s sunspot activity, and annotate it with additional data to provide some context.
The trend of sunspot activity exceeding the predictions continued in February. While the increase in activity from January still left it less than the activity in December, the total number of sunspots is still far above the number predicted by NOAA’s panel of solar scientists in 2020, with the rise towards a solar maximum also much steeper and far faster than predicted.
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Romania on March 1st became the sixteenth nation to sign the Artemis Accords, designed to get around the Outer Space Treaty’s restrictions on private enterprise and property rights in space.
Romania is now the third former Soviet block nation to sign the accords, joining Poland and the Ukraine. The full list of signatories now includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, and the United States.
Up to now Germany and France — two of the west’s most important major space powers — have resisted signing, probably because both countries have had strong partnership ties with Russia, and Russia opposes the accords. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine however has caused Germany to break off all such Russian cooperation, which suggests it now may be more amendable to signing. I also suspect France may become more willing, though predicting France in these matters is always difficult.
As part of Germany’s decision to break off all scientific cooperation with Russia in response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, the Max Plank Institute has turned off its instrument on the Spektr-RG orbiting X-ray telescope.
Meanwhile, Roscosmos’ head, Dmitry Rogozin revealed he will demand compensation from Europe for its sanctions, including this shut down on Spektr-RG.
Europe’s sanctions cause real losses to Russia’s space corporation Roscosmos. The corporation will estimate them and demand a compensation from partners in Europe, Roscosmos’s press-service told TASS on Tuesday. “They have caused harm to the Spektr-RG laboratory’s research program by turning off one of the two telescopes. Their sanctions cause real losses to us. The damage will be estimated and a bill presented to the European side,” Roscosmos said.
It now appears that all the European cooperation with Russia in space is likely dead, at least until Russia gets out of the Ukraine.
The head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, today announced that he has halted all launch preparations for the March 5th launch of 36 OneWeb satellites on a Soyuz-2 rocket from Baikonur in Kazakhstan unless he received reassurances by March 4th that they would not be used for military purposes against Russia.
Roskosmos head Dmitry Rogozin announced that the mission would not proceed unless he received assurances by 21:30 Moscow Time on March 4 of non-military use of the satellites. Rogozin also demanded that the British government give up its stake in OneWeb.
I suspect Rogozin’s action here is a response to SpaceX’s delivery of Starlink terminals and the activation of its use for the Ukraine to fight the Russian invasion.
It is now certain that all the planned Soyuz-2 OneWeb launches this year will likely not occur, unless the situation in the Ukraine becomes settled quickly. This means OneWeb will have to scramble to find a new launch provider and pay for the launches a second time, since they have already paid Russia for, according to sources I spoke to last night, the next four Russian launches. It won’t get a refund from Russia, for sure.
At a House hearing today the NASA Inspector General Paul Martin stated unequivocally that the cost of NASA’s SLS rocket, Orion capsule, and the associated ground systems is about $4.1 billion per launch, which made the entire program, in his words, “unsustainable.”
Appearing before a House Science Committee hearing on NASA’s Artemis program, Martin revealed the operational costs of the big rocket and spacecraft for the first time. Moreover, he took aim at NASA and particularly its large aerospace contractors for their “very poor” performance in developing these vehicles.
Martin said that the operational costs alone for a single Artemis launch—for just the rocket, Orion spacecraft, and ground systems—will total $4.1 billion. This is, he said, “a price tag that strikes us as unsustainable.” With this comment, Martin essentially threw down his gauntlet and said NASA cannot have a meaningful exploration program based around SLS and Orion at this cost.
Martin’s testimony confirms what was contained in his November 2021 report, from which I took the graphic above. The article at the link details at length Martin’s testimony today, which was amazingly harsh. He also said that
NASA is obscuring costs that it is spending on the Artemis program and that, in aggregate, his office believes NASA will spend $93 billion from 2012 to 2025 on the Artemis program. “Without NASA fully accounting for and accurately reporting the overall costs of current and future Artemis missions, it will be much more difficult for Congress and the administration to make informed decisions about NASA’s long-term funding needs—a key to making Artemis a sustainable venture,” Martin said.
Martin has merely confirmed what I have been writing now for more than a decade, and documented at great length in my 2017 policy paper, Capitalism in Space. In fact, let me quote from one of my earliest essays on this subject on Behind the Black, from 2011:
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An evening pause: Performed live 1987.
Hat tip Diane Zimmerman.
ULA today successfully launched a new NOAA weather satellite.
The leaders in the 2022 launch race:
8 SpaceX
4 China
2 Russia
2 ULA
The U.S. now leads China 13 to 4 in the national rankings.
