Tag Archives: poll

Rigged poll claims Americans want NASA to do climate research

A new Pew Research Center poll, that is getting lots of play in the press today and claims that Americans want climate research to be NASA’s number one purpose, appears very rigged to me.

First their main conclusion:

NASA oversees a diverse portfolio of space-related missions, from sending robotic probes to explore distant planets to launching satellites that study Earth’s atmosphere and oceans.

When asked to rate the importance of nine of these missions, majorities of Americans say a top priority for NASA should be monitoring key parts of the Earth’s climate system (63%) or monitoring asteroids and other objects that could potentially collide with the Earth (62%).

Slightly fewer than half of Americans (47%) believe that conducting basic scientific research to increase knowledge and understanding of space should be a top priority, with 40% saying such research is an important but lower priority.

…Missions for human astronauts to explore Mars and return to the moon are among NASA’s most high-profile programs. The Trump administration has expressed strong support for these initiatives, saying that exploring the solar system should be NASA’s core mission, beginning with a return of astronauts to the moon.

However, compared with other NASA programs, fewer Americans say such space exploration should be a top priority. Just 18% and 13%, respectively, say that sending astronauts to Mars or back to the moon should be a top priority; 37% and 44%, respectively, express the view that these missions are not too important or that NASA shouldn’t undertake these missions. [emphasis mine]

You can download the full report here [pdf].

While it is very possible that the high numbers for NASA climate research and low numbers for a NASA mission to the Moon or Mars reflect a growing skepticism about NASA’s ability to do space work, the poll itself simply isn’t trustworthy. Buried deep in Pew’s press announcement (three webpages down) was a graph that showed that, while the sample population surveyed was distributed reasonably in most ways, the numbers Republicans and Democrats polled was very skewed, 981 Republicans to 1,483 Democrats.

This is absurd. Every recent election has shown that the nation is very evenly split between these two parties. If anything, the results of the 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 elections would suggest there are more Republicans than Democrats. To favor Democrats by one third is simply dishonest and inaccurate. Even if they claim that they are merely polling Americans, not voters, the split shouldn’t be weighed that much in favor of Democrats.

Moreover, the poll shows how this skew warps the results, as it also admits that 78 percent of the Democrats polled love NASA’s climate research, while only 44 percent of Republicans do. The poll did find that both Democrats and Republicans had no interest in NASA’s deep space exploration plans, but once again, the poll did not ask why. I strongly suspect that NASA’s inability to get SLS launched explains this. No one believes the agency will ever do it.

With climate research the agency has an easier job, and has done better, but even here many Republicans have strong doubts, and would rather give the job to someone else.

It seems to me that the time has come to completely ignore political polling operations like Pew. They really have only one goal, and that is to push the Democratic Party’s political agenda.

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Poll finds Democrats losing ground with millenials

A poll of more than 16,000 registered voters between 18 and 34 years old has found a significant loss of support in the past two years for the Democratic Party.

The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.

Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates.

I normally don’t report on polls, as they are a notoriously unreliable predictor of future events. However, the number of participants here is so high that I decided it merited consideration.

At the same time, Republicans should not begin their victory dance. The poll also noted that “Only 28 percent of those polled expressed overt support for Republicans in the 2018 poll – about the same percentage as two years earlier.”

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Anti-establishment non-politicians top Iowa poll

I normally don’t bother reporting on polls. They are notoriously unreliable and often force one to the wrong conclusions. Nonetheless, this poll appears significant because it indicates that it isn’t just Trump that the voters are turning to in their disgust of the establishment political elite community.

First, it is the first poll since late July that does not show Trump with a lead. Instead, Ben Carson ties him. Second, Carly Fiorina with 10% and Ted Cruz with 9% come in second and third.

Finally, and most important, Bush, Kasich, and Rubio, politicians who have demonstrated by their actions that once elected they cannot be trusted get little or no support.

For months I have strongly believed that Jeb Bush was going to go nowhere once the voting began. The Republican base does not want another Bush. Similarly, Rubio’s betrayal of the tea party voters who got him elected by his support of the Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration bill is well remembered by those tea party voters. They do not trust him.

Instead, I believe that it will be reliable conservatives or brash outsides like Cruz, Fiorina, Carson, and Trump who will get the votes. This poll suggests I might be right.

Having said this, I must emphasize again my mistrust of polls. It is just as likely this poll is a waste, and tells us nothing.

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A new poll suggests that the young are finally abandoning Obama and the Democratic Party.

A new poll suggests that the young are finally abandoning Obama and the Democratic Party.

They aren’t rushing to the Republicans very much either, but this detail is significant:

According to the poll, 57 percent of millennials disapprove of Obamacare, with 40 percent saying it will worsen their quality of care and a majority believing it will drive up costs. Only 18 percent say Obamacare will improve their care. Among 18-to-29-year-olds currently without health insurance, less than one-third say they’re likely to enroll in the Obamacare exchanges.

In other words, they are finally beginning to pay attention, and have discovered that their blind faith in Democrats was a big mistake. They might not like Republicans, but if Republicans offer to kill Obamacare the young will likely favor Republicans in the coming elections.

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“Vulcan” and “Cerberus” win the poll to name Pluto’s two unnamed moons.

“Vulcan” and “Cerberus” win the poll to name Pluto’s two unnamed moons. Key quote:

Vulcan was a late addition to the Pluto moon name contenders, and pulled into the lead after Shatner, building on his Capt. James T. Kirk persona, plugged the name on Twitter. Vulcan, the home planet of Kirk’s alien-human hybrid first officer Spock, is not just a fictional world in the Star Trek universe. It is also the name of the god of fire in Roman mythology, and officials at SETI added the sci-fi favorite to the ballot for that reason.

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A new poll of Earth scientists has found that a majority are skeptical of human-caused global warming.

Consensus! A new poll of Earth scientists has found that a majority are skeptical of human-caused global warming.

Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.

This is fun to note, but this poll is as worthless in determining the climate of the Earth as every previous poll that said the opposite. What matters is the data. However, this quote about the poll is significant:
» Read more

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A new poll in Nevada repeats what was found in North Carolina: Obama appears to be losing a significant percentage of the black vote.

A new poll in Nevada repeats what was found in North Carolina: Obama appears to be losing a significant percentage of the black vote.

Both polls could be noise. If true, however, the Democrats cannot win. Without 95% of the black vote they just do not garner enough votes from any other group to win.

And if this is true, it will also mean that the racism in the black community might finally be abating. Voting for a candidate merely because of skin color is still bigotry, no matter what the skin color. If the black community is finally gaining the ability to see past skin color it will be a very good thing.

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According to a new poll, the number of voters who consider themselves independents is now the highest in seventy-five years.

Good news: According to a new poll, the number of voters who consider themselves independents is now the highest in seventy-five years.

If you call yourself independent, it means you intend to keep an open mind about who to vote for. It means you have decided that loyalty to party affiliation is not a reason to vote for a candidate. It means that you have decided to reject conventional wisdom and go your own way.

It doesn’t necessarily mean you will make a wise decision, but it does mean that on the whole the American electorate has decided our government needs a new approach, and that knee-jerk loyalty to the established political parties is not the way to get it.

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Only 65% of the political class and only 61% of Democrats are aware that federal spending has gone up in the past ten years.

Pitiful: Only 65% of the political class and only 61% of Democrats are aware that federal spending has gone up in the past ten years.

Interestingly, 85% of the general public knows this basic fact, which might explain why the intellectual elites of our country — from both parties — are continually being blindsided by the rise of the tea party movement and its continued success in elections.

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In a poll of one congressional district in Arkansas, Obama receives support from just 45% of Democratic Party voters, and is only seven points ahead of his unknown primary challenger.

What does this tell us? In a poll of one congressional district in Arkansas, Obama receives support from just 45% of Democratic Party voters, and is only seven points ahead of his unknown primary challenger.

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A new poll show that Obamacare continues to be a major political problem for Obama.

Surprise, surprise! A new poll shows that Obamacare continues to be a major political problem for Obama, and Romney.

In the poll, Obama lags the two leading Republican rivals in the 12 states likely to determine the outcome of a close race in November:

  • Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum’s lead narrows to 49%-46%.
  • Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.

Romney also has a health care problem: Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the battleground states, 27% say they are less likely to support him because he signed a Massachusetts law that required residents to have coverage. Just 7% say it makes them more likely to back him.

At least Romney has made it clear he intends to repeal Obamacare, which should help him in the election should he overcome the Republican hostility to RomneyCare and become the Republican candidate. For Obama, however, there is no escape. Obamacare is his problem, and his alone, and he is likely going to go down in flames because of it more than anything else.

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New Rasmussen poll shows Romney beating Obama 45%-39%

A new Rasmussen poll shows Romney beating Obama 45%-39%.

What is more significant about the poll is how poorly Obama stacks up against every other possible candidate. Though he leads all the others, in no case does he get more than 48% of the vote. Even against a non-entity like Gary Johnson Obama only leads 42% to 27%. These numbers suggest that no matter who runs against Obama, the man is toast.

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President Obama is trailing against both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in 12 swing states that Obama won in 2008, according to a poll released today.

More evidence that the 2010 landslide was a trend, not an event: President Obama is trailing against both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in 12 swing states that Obama won in 2008, according to a poll released today.

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New poll shows the same thing as 83 previous polls: a solid majority wants Obamacare repealed

A new poll shows the same thing as 83 previous polls: a solid majority wants Obamacare repealed.

This is clearly not good for Obama’s reelection chances. If a majority is eager to trash his most significant legislative accomplishment, how can anyone expect those same people to vote for him in the election?

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A new Rasmussen national poll: Gingrich 45% Obama 43%

A new Rasmussen national poll: Gingrich 45% Obama 43%.

Last week, Gingrich trailed the president by six. Two weeks ago, he was down by twelve. Earlier in the year, both Rick Perry and Herman Cain followed a similar path to take a slight lead over the president. However, in both cases, their time as frontrunners quickly came to an end. Neither man led the president more than a single time in a Rasmussen Reports poll. It remains to be seen whether Gingrich follows that path or is able to retain his status as the leading alternative to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Note that every candidate has polled ahead of Obama at one time or another, suggesting to me that the public wants Obama out, and is fishing for the candidate to do it.

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Twenty percent of the new waivers to ObamaCare are in Pelosi’s district

I guess they finally found out what’s in it: Twenty percent of the new waivers to ObamaCare are in Nancy Pelosi’s district.

Pelosi’s district secured almost 20 percent of the latest issuance of waivers nationwide, and the companies that won them didn’t have much in common with companies throughout the rest of the country that have received Obamacare waivers. Other common waiver recipients were labor union chapters, large corporations, financial firms and local governments. But Pelosi’s district’s waivers are the first major examples of luxurious, gourmet restaurants and hotels getting a year-long pass from Obamacare.

Then there’s this new poll: By 17 percentage points, Americans support repeal.

Repeal is supported by men and women; by those in their 30s, 40s, 50s to mid-60s, and mid-60s on up; and by all income groups (ranging from under-$20,000 to over-$100,000 a year).

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