Year: 2021

Japan passes law protecting property rights in space

8:42 am

Japan’s legislature on June 15th approved a new law designed to protect the ownership of the resources private entities extract for profit in space.

Japan’s legislation is similar to provisions in the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, passed by the U.S. Congress and signed into law by President Obama in 2015. That law grants U.S. companies rights to resources that they extract, but not property rights to celestial bodies, which would run afoul of the Outer Space Treaty. Luxembourg and the United Arab Emirates have since passed similar legislation.

All four countries are signatories of the Artemis Accords, which endorses the ability to extract and use space resources. “The Signatories affirm that the extraction of space resources does not inherently constitute national appropriation under Article II of the Outer Space Treaty, and that contracts and other legal instruments relating to space resources should be consistent with that Treaty,” the accords state.

Both Russia and China oppose such legislation, as well as the Artemis Accords, which have now been signed by eleven countries.

What this growing alignment of opposing sides means for future space operations by private companies is unclear, though it suggests these two countries will not honor those private property rights, which in turn suggests this legal disagreement is eventually going to lead to physical conflict in space.

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China’s Long March 2C rocket launches three military satellites

8:28 am

China today used its Long March 2C rocket to launch three military reconnaissance satellites into orbit.

The rocket’s first stage uses highly toxic hypergolic fuels, and is expendable. Since it is launched from the interior of China, that stage always crashes on land, sometimes near residential areas. No word on where it crashed today.

The leaders in the 2021 launch race:

19 SpaceX
18 China
8 Russia
3 Northrop Grumman

The U.S. still leads China 27 to 18 in the national rankings.

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U2 – Mysterious Ways

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Stay with it for what is made to appear as an impromptu addition of an audience member dancing. She steals the show.

It might be improvised, but if it was, it happened repeatedly, at different places, sometimes with a girl that looks identical to this one. I suspect they pre-planned it each time, but no matter, it works quite well this time, for sure.

Hat tip Cotour.

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Today’s blacklisted American: NY accounting program for high school students bans whites

1:25 pm

The Civil Rights Act of 1964: repealed by the universities in New York.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964: unilaterally repealed by
the universities in New York.

Blacklists are back and New York’s got ’em! Until Campus Reform revealed its bigoted discriminatory policy, a New York accounting program for high school students specifically excluded whites from applying.

The first link above includes a screen capture of the program’s original application requirements, which included five categories, (1) Hispanic or Latino, (2) Black or African American, (3) Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, (3) Asian, (4) Native American or Alaska Native, (5) Two or More Races.

Notice what’s missing? If you are simply white and thus do not fall into these categories, you must go to the back of the bus. For example, my kids (had I any) would be Jewish, white, and of European descent, and thus under these definitions would be forbidden to even apply to the program. And the only reason they would be rejected would be because of their race and ethnicity, a criteria that is a blatant violation of so many anti-discrimination laws passed since the 1960s it boggles the mind.
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New data confirms lack of dark matter in one galaxy

12:00 pm

The uncertainty of science: Astronomers have strengthened their evidence that one particular nearby galaxy is completely devoid of dark matter, a situation that challenges the existing theories about dark matter which suggest it comprises the bulk of all matter in the universe.

The astronomers had made their first claim that this galaxy, NGC 1052-DF2, lacked dark matter back in 2018, a claim that was strongly disputed by others.

The claim however would only hold up if the galaxy’s distance from Earth was as far away as they then estimated, 65 million light years (not the 42 million light years estimated by others). If it were closer, as other scientists insisted, then NCC 1052-DF2 likely did have dark matter, and the theorists could sleep at night knowing that their theory about dark matter was right.

To test their claim, the astronomers used the Hubble Space Telescope to get a better, more tightly constrained estimate of the distance, and discovered the galaxy was even farther away then previously believed.

Team member Zili Shen, from Yale University, says that the new Hubble observations help them confirm that DF2 is not only farther from Earth than some astronomers suggest, but also slightly more distant than the team’s original estimates.

The new distance estimate is that DF2 is 72 million light-years as opposed to 42 million light-years, as reported by other independent teams. This places the galaxy farther than the original Hubble 2018 estimate of 65 light-years distance.

So, does this discovery invalidate the theories about dark matter? Yes and no. The theories now have to account for the existence of galaxies with no dark matter. Previously it was assumed that dark matter was to be found as blobs at the locations of all galaxies. Apparently it is not.

However, the lack of dark matter at this one galaxy does not prove that dark matter is not real. As noted by the lead astronomer in this research,

“In our 2018 paper, we suggested that if you have a galaxy without dark matter, and other similar galaxies seem to have it, that means that dark matter is actually real and it exists,” van Dokkum said. “It’s not a mirage.

Ah, the uncertainty of science. Isn’t it wonderful?

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China and Russia outline long term plans for building joint lunar base

11:08 am

China/Russian Lunar base roadmap

The governments of China and Russia yesterday announced their long term roadmap for building a joint manned lunar base on the Moon, what they have labeled the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS).

The graphic to the right, rearranged by me from the PowerPoint slides released by the two governments, shows the overall plan.

The first phase, starting now and running through ’25, will involve six already planned unmanned missions by both countries, three each. Of the three Chinese unmanned missions, Chang’e-4, Chang’e-6, and Chang’e-7, the first is already operating on the Moon, as it includes the Yutu-2 rover. Based on China’s recent track record, it would be reasonable to expect the other two Chang’e missions to fly as planned.

Of the three Russian missions, Luna 25 is scheduled to launch later this year, making it the first all-Russian-built planetary mission in years and the first back to the Moon since the 1970s. The other two Russian probes are supposedly under development, but based on Russia’s recent track record in the past two decades for promised space projects, we have no guarantee they will fly as scheduled, or even fly at all.

The second phase, running from ’26 to ’35, will begin construction, though the details are vague.

The third phase, when China & Russia say they will begin full operations in ’36, is even more vague, merely stating the objective of human “lunar research and exploration”.

The pace matches well with the typically slow pace of these kind of government programs. It not only matches with the pace that China has shown in its entire manned program, with manned missions sometimes separated by years, it also matches the sluggish long term roadmap that NASA has put forth for its own Artemis program on the Moon. It also fits with Russia’s recent pattern, which is to repeatedly announce big projects and goals, with little actual execution to follow.

At first glance the plan suggests that we are in a new space race between the United States and its national partners in the capitalist west and the authoritarian governments of China and Russia. That may be so, but I think the real race will be between the government programs in China, Russia, and the U.S. and the efforts by private commercial companies aiming to make profits in space. And if you ask me to bet on who will get more accomplished faster for less money, I will hands down put my money on those private companies. The more profit they make, the faster they will push to move forward, and will quickly leave these sedate government programs in the dust.

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Russia announces it is shifting its manned operations on ISS to yearlong missions

10:35 am

According to Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos, Russia is changing the standard length of a crew stay at ISS from six months to a full year, beginning with the flight in which the crew will help film a commercial movie on ISS in October.

Then-Head of the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center Pavel Vlasov earlier said that two members of the Soyuz MS-18 spacecraft, Pyotr Dubrov and Mark Vande Hei, would stay in orbit longer than six months to help shoot a film Vyzov (Challenge). He also said that crew commander Oleg Novitsky would return to Earth in October aboard the Soyuz MS-18’s descend capsule together with the participants of the Soyuz MS-19 spacecraft’s flight (actress Yulia Peresild and film director Klim Shipenko who would be engaged in the film). Two crewmembers, cosmonaut Dubrov and NASA astronaut Vande Hei, would remain in orbit and return to Earth aboard the Soyuz MS-19 spaceship, he said.

Gaining experience at missions a year or longer, something only the Russians have accomplished, makes sense if one plans to send astronauts to Mars. I suspect however there is a second more practical reason for this change: It will free up seats on Soyuz to sell for commercial tourist flights. Russia clearly wants to compete successfully with the new American commercial manned flights that SpaceX and Axiom will be flying. This change gives them that opportunity.

Rogozin himself likely has personal financial motives. He is a co-producer on that movie, and likely will also pocket personally some of the profits from future tourist flights.

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SpaceX confirms it is shifting to Starship orbital test flights

10:24 am

Capitalism in space: By shifting both the 15th and 16th Starship prototypes to its garden at Boca Chica of retired spacecraft, SpaceX has essentially confirmed that it has shifted operations there from short test hops to Starship orbital test flights.

Built as the first of several planned backups to Starship SN15, which debuted a number of significant upgrades in April and May, it appears that Starship serial number 16 (SN16) has been retired to a display stand after its only sibling became the first full-size prototype to successfully survive a launch and landing on May 5th. SN16 actually reached its full height before SN15 lifted off and was more or less complete by May 10th. Since then, the prototype has remaining more or less untouched, seemingly waiting for SpaceX to decide its fate in lieu of Starship SN15’s major success.

Ultimately, with SN16 now sitting side by side with SN15 at what will likely become a sort of open-air SpaceX museum, it appears that the company has made up its mind.

In other words, prototype #16, though built and ready to fly, will likely never do so. Instead, the company is focusing its operations on preparing for the first orbital test flights using Starship prototype #20 stacked on top of a Superheavy, with the first flight planned to circle three-quarters of the globe to land in the Pacific northeast of Hawaii.

Since neither #20 nor its Superheavy are fully assembled, that flight will likely not occur in July, as SpaceX had initially suggested as its targeted launch date. However, with all work now focused on that orbital test flight, it is almost certain they will attempt it before the year is out.

The big question is whether Starship’s first orbital flight will beat out SLS’s first orbital flight, presently scheduled for November but expected to be delayed.

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Spacesuit issues prevent spacewalk from completing new ISS solar panels installation

10:12 am

Astronauts on ISS yesterday were unable to complete the installation of a new solar panel on ISS because the suit of one astronaut began experiencing technical problems.

First, a sensor in the suit’s sublimator — which provides pressure — registered a spike. Shortly thereafter, the Display and Control Module (DCM) in his suit malfunctioned, necessitating an immediate return to the Quest Airlock to connect back to Station umbilicals to attempt a restart of the unit.

The “warm restart” of the DCM meant that Shane [Kimbrough]’s suit momentarily lost its cooling and CO2 scrubbing capabilities; however, this is an acceptable condition, per EVA procedures, when attempting to “warm restart” a DCM. A failure to restart the unit would have meant a premature end to the EVA.

The restart was successful, and ground teams sent Shane back out to Thomas while managers and engineers continued to discuss the sublimator issue — which itself could have also stop the EVA early. Fortunately, through a series of suit configuration tests, ground teams were able to determine that the sublimator was functioning properly and that a faulty sensor likely triggered an erroneous pressure increase reading.

The time lost in fixing these issues however prevented the astronauts from finishing their work. The new solar panel was attached, but not unrolled into its full deployed configuration. The astronauts also were unable to plug the new panel into the station’s electrical system.

Engineers are now assessing the situation in order to plan a follow-up spacewalk.

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Astronomers propose explanation the dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020

10:01 am

The uncertainty of science: New data has allowed astronomers to propose a more detailed explanation for the dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020 by almost two-thirds.

[T]he dimming was likely to be caused by [one of two] mechanisms, such as a blob of unusually cold matter appearing on the surface of the star in what’s known as a convective cell, or a cloud of dust crossing the line of sight to it.

Now, astrophysicist Miguel Montargès at the Paris Observatory and his collaborators have found that the reason for the ‘great dimming’ was probably a combination of both of those factors

The data suggest that the star spewed out material from a convection cell, which then quickly condensed into dust which acted to block the star’s light. The growing cell itself also was darker, which also contributed to the dimming.

The results, while robust, are still uncertain. While a number of mainstream news sources are claiming the mystery of Betelgeuse’s dimming has been “solved”, that is not how it works. The data now points to an answer, but the data is far from complete, and future observations could very easily change that answer.

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Manned Shenzhou capsule docks with Tianhe

9:53 am

China’s manned Shenzhou capsule early this morning successfully docked with the Tianhe module of that nation’s new space station.

The three astronauts on board will spend the next three months doing work in connection with the assembly of that station. Though this was the first Chinese manned mission in five years, the pace is expected to pick up in the next year.

Eight more launches will be required to finish construction of the space station, Chinese officials have said. Two will loft “lab modules” that will attach to Tianhe, forming the final T-shaped station. The assembly phase, which is expected to wrap up by the end of 2022, will also include three more cargo launches and three additional crewed missions.

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SpaceX successfully launches GPS satellite for Space Force

9:40 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully launched a new GPS satellite for the Space Force.

As I post this the second stage has not yet deployed the satellite, though it is in orbit. UPDATE: As expected the satellite has been successfully deployed into its proper orbit.

This was the first Space Force launch using a reused Falcon 9 first stage. The stage, making its second flight, successfully landed on the drone ship, broadcasting the absolutely best video ever of such a landing, with the cameras on both the stage and the drone ship working without distortion throughout the landing to touchdown. The live stream is embedded below the fold, with that landing at 8:34 minutes after launch.

The two fairing halves are new but their pick up method for reuse has been streamlined:

For this mission, a new vessel has joined SpaceX’s oceangoing recovery fleet. HOS Briarwood will attempt to recover Falcon 9’s payload fairing halves after they splash down in the Atlantic Ocean. Similar in size to Shelia Bordelon, the previous temporary fairing recovery vessel, HOS Briarwood can be booked as a “flotel” and features an enormous crane, along with seemingly just enough deck space to support two recovered fairing halves.

Apparently, allowing the halves to land directly on the ocean surface and act as floating boat hulls until the ship can pick them up on a single ship, using a crane, is now the recovery method. There is also the hint that SpaceX might also be planning to sell tickets on this ship for people who wish a vacation watching that fairing recovery operation.

The leaders in the 2021 launch race:

19 SpaceX
17 China
8 Russia
3 Northrop Grumman

The U.S. now leads China 27 to 17 in the national rankings. Note: The average number of American launches per year during the 21st century (from 2000 to 2020) was 22. The U.S. has now topped that average by five launches, and the year is not even half over.
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